Kpler LNG (High Imports by Middle East)

Originally Released on 7 September 2017

Diversions of the Week

In connection to the Harvey storm and disruption of Sabine Pass liftings, Kpler analysts expect to see several diverted or cancelled cargo deliveries. Shell’s Maran Gas Agamemnon loaded at Sabine Pass on 21-August and was initially signalling for Dahej, ETA 17-September. She changed her route on 31-August and is now headed towards Gibraltar with no clear destination:

Shell’s Maran Gas Sparta diverted again and is now headed towards the Indian Ocean with no clear destination. The vessel loaded at Bioko on 25-August and was initially headed towards S.America and then Gibraltar:

Main Highlights

Gas Natural’s Rioja Knutsen is the first vessel after the Harvey storm loading at Sabine Pass. There are currently 10 vessels ballasting in the Gulf of Mexico.

Cheniere’s Maria Energy loaded a tender cargo at Bonny on 1-August and is expected to deliver to China, ETA 15-September.

Cheniere’s Methane Spirit loaded at Bontang on 2-September and is delivering it to Japan, ETA 10-September.

BP’s Energy Advance loaded at Bontang on 3-September and is currently signalling for Rayong MTP, 11-September.

Kpler analysts expect Qatargas’ Mesaimeer to discharge her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo at Swinoujscie on 18-September.

Rasgas’ Al Oraiq loaded at Ras Laffan on 5-September and has been confirmed by the Zeebrugge Port Authority to arrive on 23-September. Data shows it will be a full discharge, and Kpler analysts expect Ras Laffan to be her next destination.

Statoil’s Arctic Princess is now loading a cargo at Snohvit and will deliver it at Gate, ETA 13-September.

Due to the maintenance at Montoir from 9 to 19 September with 100% reduced regasification capacity, only two more cargoes are expected to be delivered in September. According to the Port Authorities, LNG Ogun will discharge her Bonny-sourced cargo on 17-September.

Trafigura is now delivering several cargoes into different parts of the globe. Hoegh Giant and Energy Atlantic are making their laden voyage towards Argentina with their tender cargoes. Corcovado LNG loaded at Ras Laffan on 6-September and is expected to discharge in the Red Sea region, ETA 15-September. Golar Ice lifted a cargo at Bethioua on 1-September and is delivering it to the Middle East, ETA 17-September.

Shell’s Maran Gas Hector loaded at Bonny on 26-August and is now headed towards Altamira to deliver her tender cargo, ETA 18-September.

BP’s British Merchant loaded at Atlantic LNG on 17-August and is now signalling for Limassol, where she is expected to perform the STS operation with Excellence.

In August, Middle East imports hit record high of 2.02 MT in August 2017:

Middle East Monthly Imports by Origin

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Kpler OIL (Libyan Exports)

Originally Released on 7 September 2017

Libyan Exports

Since August 19th, the Sharara and Elephant Oil Fields have been effectively shut-in following a seizure of the pipeline that extends between Sharara/Elephant and the Zawiya export terminal. Finally, after two weeks of militant blockades, the Libyan government announced the pipeline is once again operational and both fields will resume output operations. The Sharara and Elephant oil fields yield approximately 280 kbd and 90 kbd respectively.

PADD 3 Oil-On-Water

The struggle to recover following Hurricane Harvey continues. Kpler data currently indicates a total of 19.83 million barrels of oil-on-water just in PADD 3. Much of this is the result of limited operations in and out of the Houston Ship Channel and Port Arthur zones. There are currently more than 30 ships holding crude at or near the Galveston lightering area.

Hurricane Irma Disruptions

While Southeastern Texas recovers from Hurricane Harvey, Florida and the Bahama’s brace for Hurricane Irma, who is currently moving west-northwest at 16 mph just north of the Dominican Republic. She is the strongest ever hurricane to form in the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of upwards of 175 miles per hour. As a result, there are many port closures. Please note that public information changes quickly and is oftentimes limited as the effects and future track of Irma are updated by local authorities and the National Hurricane Center respectively:

  • Buckeye Partner’s Bahamas Clean and Bahamas Hub installations have suspended all operations as of 9/7/2017 until further notice.
  • Statoil’s South Riding Point Terminal was opened for operations early Thursday morning. It appears that all operations are now officially suspended as of 9/7/2017 until further notice.
  • Port Everglades announced it will suspend all operations the morning of 9/8/2017 until further notice.
  • NuStar’s St. Eustatius Terminal experienced damage from the storm and currently has not set a date in which to reopen. A press release stated the facility took “damage to several tanks and other equipment,” while further stating that all U.S. employees were safe and no spills had occurred.
  • ArcLight Capital Partner’s Saint Croix Products Terminal is currently closed. There is limited information on the extent of damage.
  • Buckeye Partner’s Yabucoa Terminal is currently closed. There is limited information on the extent of damage.

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Kpler LPG (Lowest US Exports)

Originally Released on 7 September 2017

Vessels

Americas

One week after the Harvey Hurricane, the US Gulf Coast exports seems to be witnessing recovery since the beginning of September:

  • Freeport was the first installation to restart activity on Friday, Sept-1. Kunlun’s Chaparral completed her loading there and is now heading to her destination which is yet to be confirmed by her AIS signal.
  • Enterprise – 4 VLGC’s are currently completing or have completed their loadings:
    • G. Paragon, docked on 4-Sept to complete the rest of her load and is currently heading to Tuxpan Port for discharge, ETA 9-Sept.
    • Oriental Queen, docked at berth on 5-Sept.
    • Gas Ray, arrived at berth on 5-Sept.
    • Gas Taurus, docked at berth on 6-Sept.
  • Targa – 2 VLGC’s are currently at berth:
    • Geogas’ Clipper Moon, arrived at berth on 5-Sept.
    • Concorde, arrived at berth on 6-Sept.
    • Socar’s Bw Pine finally undocked after more than 2 weeks at berth and is now heading to Dortyol Port, ETA 24-Sept.
  • Nederland – 2 VLGC’s are currently at berth:
    • Shell’s Shaamit who returned to berth today to complete her load after more than 2 weeks at berth.
    • Leto Providence, docked at berth today.
    • Astomos’ Ns Frontier is also expected to join the other two VLGC’s at Nederland by the end of today.
  • Corpus Christi – Trafigura’s Kortrijk completed her load there on Sept-4. Her destination is yet to be confirmed by her AIS signal.

This week, we are witnessing 5 VLGC’s who are expected to pass Cape of Good Hope to load at Houston in the upcoming days:

  • Shell’s Shergar, ETA 26-Sept.
  • SK Corp’s Gas Tigers, ETA 29-Sept.
  • Shell’s Yuhsan, ETA 2-Oct.
  • British Councillor, originally fixed by Vitol to pick up her cargo out of Persian Gulf, she changed her AIS signal to Houston, ETA 3-Oct.
  • Astomos’ Linden Pride, ETA 9-Oct.

Solvang’s newbuild Clipper Vanguard has started her first voyage by signalling for Balboa Anchorage, ETA 28-Sept. She is expected to load at US Gulf Coast by early Oct. The VLGC is relet to P66 until Jul-2027.

Europe/Mediterranean

Berge Nantong is signalling for Mohammedia, ETA 12-Sept, ex-Oso. This is the first export between the two terminals since Jan-2016. Morocco received another VLGC cargo earlier in Sept from Norway. The nominated vessel was Shell’s Shahrastani who delivered 46-Kt butane cargo, ex-Stenungsund.

Originally signalling for Persian Gulf, Vitol’s Yuyo Spirits changed her destination and is currently signalling for Suez Canal, ETA 9-Sept.

Statoil’s Clipper Posh is expected to pass the Cape of Good Hope to load at Kaarstoe, ETA 4-Oct.

Africa
4 VLGC’s are expected to pick up their cargoes out of WAF in the upcoming days:
  • SwissChemGas’ Cresques, to load at Soyo, ETA 15-Sept.
  • Vitol’s Pampero, to load at Bioko, ETA 24-Sept.
  • Chevron’s Hellas Glory, to load at Escravos, ETA 22-Sept.
  • Chevron’s Ronald N, to load at Escravos, ETA 10-Sept.

Asia

Iris Glory is currently on her way to load at Westernport, ETA 9-Sept.

 

US Exports: the Lowest Week Ever on the Way of Recovery 
As predicted, last week ended up being a record low one for propane exports with only Geogas’ Bw Messina completing her load out of Marcus Hook. The recovery process started early this week by reopening Freeport on Friday Sept-1, followed by the Houston Port a while after. 7 VLGC’s and 1 MGC have completed their loading so far and Gas Ray and Geogas’ Clipper Moon are expected to finish loading before the end of this week.
below: US seaborne exports by grades
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Kpler EU Gas (Castillo De Santisteban – first cargo from SP to Rovigo)

Originally Released on 7 September 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

North West Europe: Lineup and Inventories

France: Lineup and Inventories

 

Forecasted Vessels

  • South Hook:
Qatargas’ Rashheda is expected to arrive at South Hook on 18-September.
  • Gate:
Statoil’s Arctic Princess is now loading a cargo at Snohvit and will deliver it at Gate, ETA 13-September.
  • Zeebrugge:
Rasgas’ Al Oraiq loaded at Ras Laffan on 5-September and is now signalling for Zeebrugge, ETA 23-September.
  • Swinoujscie:

Statoil’s Arctic Discoverer loaded at Snohvit on 31-August and is about to arrive at the terminal, ETA 9-September.

Kpler analysts expect Qatargas’ Mesaimeer to discharge her Ras Laffan-sourced on 18-September.

  • Montoir: 

Due to the maintenance at the plant from 9 to 19 September with 100% reduced regasification capacity, only three cargoes are expected to be delivered in September. According to the Port Authorities, LNG Ogun will discharge her Bonny-sourced cargo on 17-September.

  • Rovigo:

Castillo De Santisteban, 11-September. This is the first cargo delivered from Sabine Pass to Rovigo.

Al Marrouna, ETA 14-September

To Keep on Your Radar

Qatargas’ Al Sheehaniya loaded at Ras Laffan on 6-September and is expected by Kpler analysts to deliver to Europe.

 

LNG Data Analysis

Ras Laffan Cargo Liftings Weekly

This week the majority of Qatari vessels headed towards the Middle East.
European Stocks and Send-outs

European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).

At South Hook, we observed a decreased average send-out level of 128.80 GWh/d this week.
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Kpler US Gas (Rioja Knutsen – first vessel loading at SP after Hurricane Harvey)

 

Originally Released on 6 September 2017

US MARKET

Sabine Pass Inventories

We observe a significantly decreased average send-in level of 0.456 Bcf/d since September 1st, with the send-in level of 0.295 Bcf/d on September 5th.

 

Sabine Pass: Lineup 
Currently, Gas Natural’s Rioja Knutsen is now loading at the terminal. There are 10 vessels ballasting in the Gulf of Mexico:

Eligible Vessels for Sabine Pass 

There are several ballast vessels heading toward the Americas with no clear destination:

Main Highlights
In connection to the Harvey storm and disruption of Sabine Pass liftings, Kpler analysts expect to see several diverted or cancelled cargo deliveries. Shell’s Maran Gas Agamemnon loaded at Sabine Pass on 21-August and was initially signalling for Dahej, ETA 17-September. She changed her route on 31-August and is now headed towards Gibraltar with no clear destination:

 

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Everett loaded at Atlantic LNG on 27-August and is currently floating in the N.Atlantic. She is expected to deliver at Everett, ETA 8-September.

GAIL’s Meridian Spirit loaded at Sabine Pass on 24-August and is now signalling for Manzanillo, ETA 7-September.

Panama Canal Transit 

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Kpler Crude OIL (Hurricane Harvey update)

Originally Released on 1 September 2017

Harvey update

Kpler keeps evaluating the impact of Harvey hurricane in the crude market as several ports and refineries remain closed and tanker arrivals have not stopped.

4 Aframax entered Corpus Christi port this morning whereas Houston port remains closed. Both ports imported in average 302 kbd in August, a 200 kbd reduction compared to an average 550 kbd imported over the last 5 months. Last crude shipments to Houston and Corpus Christi were on August 23rd and August 22nd, respectively.

Our data reveals that seaborne imports were at 3,537 kbd for week ending September 1st, down from last week 4,768 kbd with PADD 3 seaborne imports at 1,250 kbd.

As a consequence of reduced imports in the U.S. Gulf Coast, crude oil tankers are accumulating on the sea and arrivals from Middle East and Latin America keep coming. There are currently 25 million barrels of crude aboard 36 tankers in Galveston and close to U.S. shores, excluding those loaded for exports:

Additionally, 9.4 million barrels currently in transit to the Gulf Coast are likely to be added to these volumes in the next few days. The volumes are currently in the Caribbean Sea and close to Mexican ports:

Hence, total crude floating in the Gulf of Mexico with a final destination in PADD 3 refineries and terminals could reach nearly 30 million barrels if New Orleans port and LOOP are not able to absorb the accumulated crude. Indeed, we have not seen significant movements of tankers changing of destination to New Orleans or LOOP. New Orleans port has imported 250 kbd in average over the last months and LOOP around 450 kbd, but it has been seen importing over 700 kbd in the past, according to our data. 

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Kpler EU Gas (2 Expected Deliveries for Swinoujscie)

Originally Released on 31 August 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

North West Europe: Lineup and Inventories

France: Lineup and Inventories

 

Forecasted Vessels

  • South Hook:
Qatargas’ Rashheda is still expected to arrive at South Hook on 20-September.
  • Swinoujscie:

Kpler analysts expect two vessels to arrive in the next few weeks. Statoil’s Arctic Discoverer is now loading a cargo at Snohvit and will deliver it to the terminal on 9-September. Qatargas’ Mesaimeer loaded at Ras Laffan on 26-August and is expected to discharge on 18-September.

  • Klaipeda:

Kpler analysts expect Shell’s Valencia Knutsen to deliver her Sabine Pass-sourced cargo at the terminal on 19-September. The cargo is supplied by Gas Natural.

  • Sines: 

Currently, the terminal is expecting three vessels to arrive in the next few weeks. Golar Seal is scheduled to discharge her Sabine Pass-sourced cargo on 31-August. LNG Abuja Ii lifted a cargo at Bonny on 18-August and is now making her laden voyage towards the terminal, ETA 10-September. Total’s newbuild Sk Audace is delivering her maiden Ras Laffan-sourced cargo to Sines on 20-September.

  • Rovigo:

Al Areesh, ETA 2-September

Al Daayen, ETA 6-September

Castillo De Santisteban, 11-September. This is the first cargo delivered from Sabine Pass to Rovigo.

To Keep on Your Radar

Eni’s Maran Gas Mystras loaded at Ras Laffan on 24-August and is now headed towards the Suez Canal.

Engie’s Grace Cosmos is signalling for the Suez Canal with her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo, ETA 3-September.

 

LNG Data Analysis

Ras Laffan Cargo Liftings Weekly

This week the majority of Qatari vessels headed towards Far East and India.
European Stocks and Send-outs

European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).

At South Hook, we observed a decreased average send-out level of 140.61 GWh/d this week.
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