Originally Released on 30 November 2017
Iranian Seaborne Exports Trend Lower
Daily Iranian seaborne exports have trended lower over the past week. According to the 5-day moving average, over the past seven days, daily seaborne exports have fallen 1,192 kbd – a 43% decline. The deterioration in export volumes was largely the result of a decline in loadings at Kharg Island.
Chinese Oil-on-Water Lower this Week
The first two weeks of November realized an increase of 22.66 million barrels in total Chinese oil-on-water. This trend has since reversed. Between 11/21 and 11/30, total Chinese oil-on-water declined 42% to a total of 28.86 million barrels.
Higher Venezuelan Exports to the United States
Following weakness in Venezuelan daily export loadings bound for the United States in early-November, the past 10-days have realized higher export volumes. Between 11/19 and 11/30, daily crude oil shipments leaving Venezuelan shores for the U.S. increased 243 kbd, according to the 5-day moving average.This week Venezuelan President Maduro indicated the possibility of eliminating oil sales to the United States in retaliation against sanctions implemented by Washington earlier this year. His comments came during the formal appointment of General Manuel Quevedo to lead Venezuela’s National Oil Company, PDVSA.
Indian Imports of Iraqi Crude Increase
Daily Indian imports of crude from Iraq have recently realized strong growth. Just over the past seven days alone, India imported a total of 11.41 million barrels of Iraqi crude. This contrasts with the first 14 days of November, which realized Iraqi import loadings into India at less than 7 million barrels.
Canadian Seaborne Export Declines
Daily Canadian seaborne export loadings have declined over the past week following a period of relative strength. Over the past 10-days, the 5-day moving average declined 490 kbd.On 11/21 a load of 590 kbd left Canadian shores towards the United Kingdom – a first since August. This also represented the first non-U.S. export destination since late October when 770 kbd in crude oil left Canada for Italy.
Originally Released on 30 November 2017
The terminal is still expecting two vessels to arrive in December:Qatargas’ Al Ghashamiya
, ETA 5-December is confirmed by the Port Authorities. The vessel loaded at Ras Laffan on 17-November and is now crossing the Mediterranean Sea.
Qatargas’ Bu Samra
, ETA 13-December. She is now about to enter the Red Sea.
Shell’s Hispania Spirit loaded at Atlantic LNG on 13-November and delivered to Grain on 25-November.
Hispania Spirit arrived to reload on 28-November.
Engie’s Wilforce will reload at the terminal after she finishes her port call at Zeebrugge, ETA 3-December.
Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris reloaded on 26-November and is now making her laden voyage towards Incheon, ETA 22-December.
Shell’s Methane Nile Eagle reloaded at the terminal on 8-November and was floating offshore of Kalamata, Greece until 25-November. The vessel delivered her reloaded cargo back to Fos Cavaou on 29-November and is now headed towards Bonny.
Total’s Arctic Lady lifted a cargo at Snohvit and is now expected by Kpler analysts to deliver to Fos Cavaou on 15-December.
Trafigura’s Golar Tundra reloaded at the terminal on 26-October and delivered her maiden cargo to Ningbo on 27-November.
Currently, there are two vessels expected to arrive from Bonny: LNG Ogun, ETA 6-December and LNG Borno, ETA 12-December.
RasGas’ Al Huwaila loaded at 24-November at Ras Laffan and is expected by Kpler Analysts to discharge at Swinoujscie on 17-December.
Currently, two vessels are expected to arrive in the next few days:RasGas’ Al Areesh
, ETA 5-December
RasGas’ Al Marrouna
, ETA 9-December
TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR
Qatargas’ Al Hamla loaded at Ras Laffan on 21-November and is about to cross the Suez Canal with no clear destination.
RasGas’ Murwab lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 26-November and is now headed towards the Red Sea.
Liftings at Ras Laffan increased in Week 47. Top 5 destinations for W47 appeared: India 0.28 Mt, South Korea 0.16 Mt, Taiwan 0.13 Mt, Italy 0.13 Mt, Japan 0.12 Mt. Currently, 2 vessels are loading at the plant.
STOCK & SEND-OUT
At South Hook, we observed a decreased average send-out level of 122 GWh/d this week.
European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).
Originally Released on 30 November 2017
This week we are not witnessing any vessels that is heading to FE via the Cape of Good Hope
With 3 VLGCs heading and 1 VLGC currently fixed, ex-US, November exports to Europe are on the rise again reaching 222 Kt , similar to June figures.
was fixed by Statoil to deliver a cargo out of Freeport to Europe. She is expected at USGC on 8-Dec
Geogas’ Karoline N
, ex-Marcus Hook, is singalling for Lavera, ETA 6-Dec.
Repsol’s Crystal Marine
, ex-Freeport, is signalling for Flushing, ETA 12-Dec.
, ex-Enterprise, is signalling for Flushing, ETA 11-Dec.
SK Gas’ G. Commander, ex-Al Ruwais, is heading to discharge her cargo at Kalbut, ETA 4-Dec.
Petredec’s Yamabuki, ex-Nederland, is heading to discharge at Teluk Semangka, ETA 9-Dec.
Astomos’ Gas Diana, ex-Bayu Undan, is expected to discharge her cargo at Chita, ETA 3-Dec.
Chevron’s Hellas Glory, is expected to load at Escravos, ETA 15-Dec
Growth of Ethane Trade
Similar with 2016, the ethane trade continued its substantial growth during 2017.
Above: World Map of Ethane Seaborne Trade
On the export side, the same installations are able to export ethane:
- Enterprise’s Morgans Point terminal, operating since Sept-16.
- Sunoco’s Marcus Hook terminal, ethane operation since March-17.
- Statoil’s Kaarstoe terminal, operating since 2000.
On the demand side, existing and new crackers in operation received ethane shipments:
New Trade Route
Braskem’s importation of Ethane into Aratu
from the USG, is now on track to start taking deliveries. The 380 $ million project involved converting their Camacari cracker to utilise Ethane as 15% of its feedstock instead of 100% Naphtha.
Shipping will be provided by Navigator Gas Transport, who have the Navigator Orion
(22,000 cbm) currently discharging the first cargo in Aratu. In addition, Navigator Eclipse
(37,000 cbm) loaded the second parcel in Houston and is currently heading to Aratu.
In 2017, the trade flows of ethane expanded by 2.5 times the size of the 2016 total seaborne exports (2912 Kt YTD for 2017, compared to 1152 total exports for 2016).
*numbers of Jan, Feb & March for Kaarstoe have been estimated
Since the beginning of its operations in September 2016, Morgans Point have managed to become the leading ethane seaborne exporting installation. Kpler data reveal that in November, Morgans point exports represents a 75% of the total ethane seaborne exports.
The NWE crackers expanded their imports of ethane in 2017, receiving a 60% of total seaborne ethane cargoes, while Dahej progressively rose as the top ethane seaborne importing installation (receiving on average 2 cargoes of 48 Kt per month).
Growth of Ethane Fleet
The Ethane trade has grown considerably over the past year, with 22 vessels lifting ethane cargoes compared to 9 vessels in 2016.
INEOS owns the biggest fleet of dedicated ethane vessels (8 ships in the range of 27,500-32,000 cbm), while Indian Petrochemical Reliance is utilizing economies of scale by transferring bigger ethane volumes with it fleet of 6 VLECs (more than 85 cbm). Navigator Gas just entered the ethane waterborne market with the Navigator Eclipse and Navigator Orion starting trade between US-Brazil.
Above: Vessels that lifted ethan cargoes since Jan-16
Similar to 2016, the ethane seaborne market is expected to grow considerably. New contracts are already reported that will open new trade routes to Asia:
- INEOS entered in a long-term supply agreement with SP Chemicals in China to deliver Ethane from the US to Taixing. In order to do so, INEOS have contracted with Evergas to build the largest gas carrier, a 95,000 cbm Ethane Capacity (built in China with delivery in 2019). On its side, SP Chemicals will commission a gas cracker plant with a 2019 start-up to produce 650,000mts Ethylene per year.
- American Ethane Co signed a $26 billion agreement with the Nanshan Group in China to supply 2.6 million tons of Ethane from a new export terminal in the USG. The US Ethane will feed their planned 2 million ton per year Ethylene cracker.
Originally Released on 23 November 2017
This week we are witnessing 3 vessels that are heading to FE via the Cape of Good Hope:
- Kunlun Shipping’s Chaparral, ex-Nederland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 25-Dec.
- Shell’s Oriental King, ex-Nederland, signalling for SGP Area to discharge her maiden cargo, ETA 20-Dec.
- Avance Gas’ Monsoon, ex-Targa , is signalling for Tanjong Uban, ETA 1-Jan.
Above: Vessels heading to FE through COGH, instead of Panama Canal
RIL’s Ethane Emerald
loaded a full Ethane Cargo from Morgans Point and is now Dahej, ETA 2H-Dec.
Statoil’s Clipper Star
, ex-Mongstad, discharged part of her cargo at Cheesapeake and is now signalling for Tampa, ETA 25-Nov.
Morocco’s LPG demand shows early signs of increase in November, as winter approaches to the region. The following MGC and LGC vessels delivered cargo to Morocco on the first half of November:
- Petredec’s Balearic Gas, ex-Fawley, discharged at Jorf Lasfar on 3-Nov.
- Sonatrach’s Rhourd Enouss, ex-Bethioua, discharged at Mohammedia on 5-Nov.
- Essex, ex-Braefoot Bay Shell, discharged part of her cargo at Tanger on 12-Nov and is currently waiting in front of Jorf Lasfar to discharge the rest of her cargo.
The following LGC vessel is expected at Morocco on the second half of November:
- Petredec’s George N, ex-Targa, is heading to discharge at Mohammedia, ETA 22-Nov.
Shell’s Aisling, ex-Nederland, is currently discharging her maiden cargo at Kalbut, Indonesia.
Petredec’s Hellas Fos, ex-Sitra and Al Ruwais, is signalling for Teluk Semangka, ETA 2-Dec.
Originally signalling for Male Anchorage, Shell’s Sinndar updated her AIS signal and is now heading to discharge her cargo at Kalbut, ETA 3-Dec.
After 6 month of Floating Storage at Male Anchorage, Shell’s Lubara left her position and is heading towards Sri Lanka.
ExxonMobil’s Al Wuki loaded her cargo at Oso. Her exact discharge destination is yet to be confirmed.
BP’s Pacific Binzhou, loaded her cargo at Soyo and will head to discharge at FE. Her exact discharge destination is yet to be confirmed.
Eletson’s Symi, currently loading at N’Kossa, is signalling for Lavera, ETA 8-Dec.
P66’s Clipper Freeport discharged her cargo at Yokkaichi and is now signalling for Westernport, ETA 5-Dec.
Astomos’ Gas Diana is signalling for Bayu Undan, 23-Nov.
Argentina Breaks from a Decade of Seasonality Restriction
The El Orejano block is part of the Vaca Muerta shale gas deposit in Argentina’s Neuquén province and accounts for some 300 Tcf of gas resources. Argentina’s state oil company YPF signed an agreement to develop the block with Dow Argentina, the local unit of US group Dow Chemical. In December 2016, the field has reached its production level after two years of development, significantly improving the country’s shale and gas production.
For the last decade, the Argentinean government restricted gas supplies during the region’s winter period of June through August, shifting from industrial availability to consumption for heating and other residential uses.
Kpler data reveal that after years of LPG supply availability being seasonally restricted for petrochemical producers and other industrial users, 77Kt of LPG exports were tracked during the June-August period.
The first year without LPG curtailments is an early indication of Argentina’s energy recovery.
Where is the Argentinean LPG headed?The port of Bahia Blanca is the most important center of the Argentinean LPG exports. Kpler data reveal that S.America is the main destination of the LPG, where Brazil is the dominant buyer, with 345Kt delivered for 2017, Ecuador has taken 59Kt, followed by Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico with 34Kt and 33Kt respectively.
The Dominant LPG Exporter of S.America
S.American countries have exported 928Kt of LPG in 2017, mid-November figures. Kper data suggest that Argentina is the main LPG exporter of the region, accounting for 58% of regional exports or 536Kt, followed by Venezuela with a 22% and Chile with 7%.
Originally Released on 23 November 2017
Asian Imports of U.S. Crude
Approaching all-time highs
Asia has increasingly looked to the United States as a new origin for crude oil. Week-ending 11/17 realized the second highest U.S. crude import value of all time – 877 kbd arrived in Asia for the week. This continues a strong upward trend over the past 2-weeks.
South Korea was the largest Asian purchaser for week-ending 11/17, receiving a total volume of 357 kbd through the Yeosu and SK Ulsan ports. Japan received its first shipment of U.S. crude (47.5 kbd) since early June and India received U.S. crude for a fourth week in a row (151 kbd).
Iranian Export Trends
Total Exports Decline
For the first time since April, Iran realized a month-over-month decrease in seaborne oil exports. Between September and October, crude leaving Iranian shores declined by 217 kbd. This followed a three-month uptrend where exports managed to climbed nearly 200 kbd.
Exports to Turkey & India
Iranian exports to Turkey realized a dramatic change in October declining 143 kbd month-over-month – a 51% change. The decrease broke well out of the 36 kbd bounded range established through the first nine months of 2017.Crude volumes leaving Iran towards India have been in a general downtrend for much of 2017. Month-over-month, exports declined 35 kbd and the October Iranian export volume was well below the 550+ kbd levels realized through the first 3-months of 2017