Kpler LNG (Torben Spirit’s Diversion)

 

Originally released on 12 October 2017

DIVERSIONS OF THE WEEK

Torben Spirit was intially heading into the Atlantic Ocean carrying a Sabine Pass-sourced cargo. She diverted on 8-October south after Cuba and has now crossed the Panama Canal:

Angola LNG’s Sonangol Sambizanga was heading towards South America with her Soyo-sourced cargo. She diverted on 9-October towards the Cape of Good Hope.

Initially expected to deliver her Skikda cargo to Sines, SONATRACH’s Cheikh Bouamama returned after crossing Gibraltar and delivered her cargo at Cartagena instead. According to the Port Authority sources, her next Algerian cargo will be delivered to Barcelona on 21-October.

 

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Statoil’s Arctic Discoverer loaded at Snohvit on 1-October and is now making her laden voyage towards Gate, ETA 12-October. Trafigura’s Hoegh Giant has now arrived at the terminal for reload. Meanwhile, Adam LNG is currently ballasting towards Gate for another re-export, ETA 24-October.

Total’s Arctic Lady re-exported a cargo at Fos Cavaou on 5-October. She completed her crossing of Suez Canal and is expected to deliver her cargo to Jebel Ali, ETA 18 October.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris has completed her reload at Montoir on 11-October and is now headed towards Gibraltar with no clear destination.

Wilforce is now headed towards Cartagena, Spain to reload 140.000 m3, ETA 12-October. This will be the first reload from Spain this year.

At Grain, the second October cargo is expected to arrive aboard Qatargas’ Al Bahiya, ETA 14-October. Kpler analysts expect a reload at the terminal aboard Centrica’s Cool Voyager in the near future.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

After floating in Greece for 2 months loaded with Idku cargo, Engie’s Gaselys is expected to discharge in Dahej on 24-October.

According to AIS, Adgas’ Umm Al Ashtan is expected to deliver her cargo at Ruwais, ETA 15-October. This will be the second cargo delivered there this year.

BP’s Express loaded Ras Laffan on 8-October and is signaling Gwangyang as her destination, ETA 25-October. This would be the first Qatari cargo to land in Gwangyang.

NLNG’s LNG Abuja Ii lifted her first Bethioua cargo on 10-October and is now signalling for the Suez Canal.

BW GDF Suez Everett loaded at Atlantic LNG on 28-September and then was floating in the Caribbean Sea for 2 weeks. She has left and is now headed towards Gibraltar.

Expected to be stationed as a long-term FSRU in Argentina, newbuild vessel GNL Del Plata is coming out of the shipyard. She is currently heading towards Singapore.

 

CHINA IMPORTS

China has seen a 45% YoY increase of LNG imports for the months January to September 2017:

Separator LineSeparator Line

 

Kpler OIL (Venezuelan Loading Delays)

Originally Released on 12 October 2017

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Remains High

Total oil-on-water in PADD 3 remains high at 39.4 million barrels – up 35% since last Friday. Nearly 100% of Gulf of Mexico crude production was taken offline as a result of Hurricane Nate over the weekend. Floating storage as a percentage of oil-on-water continues to decline following the 30% plus levels that became the norm for several weeks following Hurricane Harvey in late-August and early-September.

Venezuelan Loading Delays

Loading rates at Venezuela’s Jose and Puerto La Cruz ports remains slow – there are currently several vessels waiting to load (or arriving today to load):

  1. Rio Caroni: arrived empty on September 9th after discharging approximately 1 million barrels of crude at Bullenbay on September 1st.
  2. Paramount Halifax: arrived empty on October 3rd after discharging approximately 525,000 barrels of crude in PADD 1 refineries in late September.
  3. Maran Cleo: arrived empty on September 26th after discharging a combined 2 million barrels of crude in China in mid-July.
  4. Rio Apure: arrived empty on September 24th after discharging approximately 1 million barrels of crude at Bullenbay on September 20th.
  5. Ns Lotus: arrived empty on October 9th after discharging approximately 555,000 barrels of crude at Bayway on October 2nd.
  6. Dht Utik: slated to arrive today, she discharged approximately 2 million barrels of crude in South Korea in late June.
  7. Boyaca: slated to arrive today, she discharged approximately 2 million barrels of crude in China in mid-August.

Global Floating Storage Slightly Higher Week-over-Week

Following a steady decline in global floating storage volume through much of August and early September, it appears that total volume has increased slightly to 43.5 million barrels over the past week. This is still well below the high of 87.6 million barrels realized on July 18th. Within this analysis, floating storage is assumed as crude loaded on vessels moving at less than 1 knot for at least the past 10-days.

South Korean Imports Up Significantly Week-over-Week

Over the past four weeks, imports to South Korea have consistently risen. It appears that the trend will remain intact for the current week. KPLER predictive modeling holds that for the week of 10/9 – 10/16, imports will equal 4,273 kbd –  a 27% increase week-over-week.The middle-east serves as the most important origin location for South Korean imports, but Russia and the Americas (Mexico and the United States) have supplied the Asian nation with crude oil as well over the past month. Smaller crude trading partners, which fall in the “Other” category, include Australia, Indonesia and Brunnei among others.

Separator LineSeparator Line

Kpler LPG (Indonesian Imports Focus)

Originally Released on 12 October 2017

Vessels

Americas

 

This week, we are witnessing 2 more VLGC’s heading to FE via Cape of Good Hope:

  • Shell’s Shergar, ex-Netherland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 9-Nov.
  • Shell’s Yuhsan, ex-Netherland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 10-Nov.

These vessels are added to a list of 9 VLGC’s that are heading to FE, ex-USGC through the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Panama Canal (see first image):

Above: vessels heading to FE through COGH, instead of Panama Canal

On the other hand, 7 VLGC’s are expected to pass the Cape of Good Hope on their way to USGC for load (see following image):

Above: vessels heading to USGC through COGH, instead of Panama Canal

Shell’s Hellas Sparta, ex- Nederland, is heading to discharge at Teluk Semangka, ETA 21-Oct.

Shell’s Aisling is currently loading her first cargo from Nederland for her virgin voyage.

BP’s British Councillor, ex-Enterprise, is heading to discharge at Terneuzen, ETA 21-Oct.

Petredec’s Pazifik to discharge at Mohammedia, ex-Cheesapeake, ETA 16-Oct.

P66’s Clipper Vanguard completed her maiden load ex-Freeport, currently heading at Panama Canal, ETA 11-Oct. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed.

BW Pine is fixed by Vitol for a voyage to FE. She is expected to load at USG by the 22 of October.

 

Africa

Geogas’ Pointis completed her load at Sanha and is currently at COGH. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed.

ExxonMobil’s Copernicus loaded at Oso and is signaling for SGP Area, ETA 21-Oct.

Total’s Hellas Gladiator is expected to load at Bonny Island, ETA 21-Oct.

Asia

Petredec’s Pacific Shanghai, ex-Iran, is heading to discharge at Kalbut, Indonesia, ETA 15-Oct.

Shell’s Secreto is signalling for Sriracha, Thailand, ETA 17-Oct. She is expected to discharge part of her cargo via STS with Ming Zhu.

Statoil’s Sunstar, ex-Freeport, discharged her cargo at Kalbut. This is the first LPG cargo out of US to Indonesia since May 2017 and the first ever from Freeport to Indonesia.

Australia

Astomos’ Gas Capricorn completed her load at Bayu Undan FPSO and is signaling for Dongguan China, ETA 16-Oct.

Interesting STS

Shell’s Sinndar is signalling for Nederlands, ETA 23-Oct (current itinerary COGH). During her previous voyage, she discharged her cargo via STS at Male Anchorage with Shell’s Lubara and then at Male Anchorage with Shell’s Captain Markos Nl.

Petredec’s Clipper Victory discharged the rest of her cargo via STS again with Petredec’s Morston and is now heading to Nederland, ETA 16-Oct. The latter vessel is expected to discharge again at Chorillo.

Shell’s Shaamit, ex-Nederland, is currently discharging her cargo via STS with Shell’s Lubara at Male Anchorage. The latter has been acting as a Floating Storage at Male Anchorage since March, 2017.

 

Indonesia Imports on the rise

While Indonesia remains a net energy exporter, its imports of Oil and products have been rapidly increasing in recent years. The decision of rejoining OPEC in January 2016 (while still a net importer of oil and products) and the quick suspension of its membership at the 171st Meeting of the OPEC Conference on November of the same years, proved the country’s difficulty to meet local demand with its own production.
Focusing on the LPG market, Kpler data indicates that Indonesia’s imports are increasing since 2015. Looking at YTD evolution the 2017 September figures reached 3,636 kt, a 22% increase from the same period in 2016. This rise is linked to declining domestic LPG supply due to the decline of domestic oil production.

 

Efforts of diversification

According to the local sources, Indonesia will become even more dependent on LPG imports from 2017 onwards, expecting imported LPG to reach 70 percent of total LPG consumption this year.
To satisfy its local demand, Indonesia mostly imports LPG from Middle East countries, but it plans to diversify the import mix over the next years.
Looking at Kpler data for Indonesia LPG imports by origin countries, in 2016 Indonesia was mainly importing from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. However, mid-2016 signified a change on the country’s strategy by receiving its first LPG cargo from United States on May, 28 (Petredec’s Motivator, ex-Entreprise), followed by a first LPG shipment from Iran on October, 13 (Pertamina’s Pertamina Gas 2, ex-Asaluyeh).
The latter shipment also indicates Iran’s desire to reach new markets, following the official lift of its sanction on June, 2016. Looking at 2017, Indonesia is seeking to reduce its dependency on traditional ME suppliers by diversifying its sources from the US (regular LPG supplier in 2017), receiving cargoes from Australia, WAF and even from Europe with a cargo coming out of Norway in February (Statoil’s Bw Freyja, ex-Kaarstoe).

New partnerships with the US and Iran

At the beginning of 2017, the Indonesian government agreed to purchase more than 500,000 tonnes of LPG from Iran in 2017. Sep-2017 Kpler figures show that 363 kt of LPG have been shipped from Iran to Indonesia, 72% of the agreed amount. Kpler LPG analysts expect at least two more LPG shipments from Iran until the end of the year, bringing the total 2017 figure to more than 450kt, which aligns with the aforementioned agreement.
Lastly, Indonesia is also showing its commitment to country portfolio diversification by receiving the first ever cargo from US Freeport (Statoil’s Sunstar, ex-Freeport, discharged her cargo at Kalbut).

    
Separator LineSeparator Line

 

Kpler OIL (Reopening of Sharara Oilfield)

Originally Released on 5 October 2017

The Sharara Oilfield Reopens

Early this week, Libya’s Sharara oilfield, the largest of its kind in the north African nation-state, was taken offline because of a takeover by non-governmental militia forces. Such a disruption cut off significant production – Sharara yields 230,000 barrels-per-day.According to Libya’s National Oil Corporation, it appears that the dispute has ended and the Sharara field is once again fully operational. The Seaways Hatteras was originally expected to load at the Zawia export terminal, which is connected by pipeline to Sharara, on October 3rd. There was some uncertainty regarding whether this vessel would be able to load. Fortunately, it appears that she entered the berth on October 5th and is currently loading approximately 1 million barrels of crude.

 

World Oil-on-Water and Floating Storage

Between 9/30 and 10/5, total oil-on-water rose from 889 million barrels to 917 million barrels. At the same time, the percentage of this oil-on-water that was floating storage fell below the 5% level seen for much of the previous week. KPLER designates floating storage for crude loaded on vessels moving at less than 3 knots for at least the past 7 days.

Philadelphia Slowly Returns to Normality

Over the course of the last two weeks, the Port of Philadelphia has grappled with difficult ship-to-ship and port-to-ship loading conditions resulting from Tropical Storm Maria. Thankfully, it appears that vessels are now readily discharging crude.

  • Ns Challenger: discharged approximate 475,000 barrels of Brass River crude on October 1st at the Monroe Energy Installation.
  • Tofteviken: discharged approximately 448,000 barrels of Akpo crude on October 3rd at the Delaware Refinery complex (located next to Delaware City).
  • Zenith Spirit: is currently discharging approximately 300,000 barrels of crude at the Fort Mifflin installation.

On Tuesday, there was a combined 6.1 million barrels of oil-on-water in the Big Stone Lightering zone and near the entrance to Delaware Bay. As of 10/5, it appears this volume has dropped to approximately 4 million barrels.

Tropical Storm Nate

Yet another tropical cyclone is expected to impact the Gulf Coast next week. Tropical Storm Nate, currently located on the eastern side of Nicaragua is expected to pass over the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The National Hurricane Center currently estimates the storm could strengthen slightly and will make landfall in Louisiana or Mississippi early next week.There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding this storm track. KPLER will keep a close eye on the situation. It is possible that Nate could impact U.S. import/export operations.

Chinese Seaborne Crude Imports Down Slightly in September

Seaborne crude oil imports into China were lower by 35 kbd in September compared to August. China realized significant month-over-month increases in imports from Angola (+54 kbd), Iraq (+139 kbd), Russia (+135 kbd), Malaysia (+37 kbd), and Saudia Arabia (+75 kbd). The opposite was true of crude imported from Oman (-175 kbd), Iran (-23 kbd), Kuwait (-57 kbd) and Brazil (-74 kbd) among others.

Separator LineSeparator Line

 

Kpler LPG (Forcus on Newbuilds)

 

Originally Released on 5 October 2017

Vessels

4 VLGC’s are currently on their way to discharge in the FE via Cape of Good Hope, ex-US:

  • Shell’s Hampshire, ex-Nederland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 1-Nov.
  • UNIPEC’s Sunny Joy, ex-Enterprise, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 3-Nov.
  • Vitol’s Commodore, ex-Marcus Hook, is expected to FE by 10-Nov.
  • Passat, ex- Enterprise, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 8-Nov.
Americas

 

Geogas’ Clipper Moon, ex- Freeport, has discharged fully via STS with Bw Gemini at Ocoa Bay Anchorage. She is now signalling for Houston, ETA Oct-8.

Australia

Astomos’ Gas Capricorn is signalling to load at Bayu Undan FPSO, Australia, ETA 8-Oct.

Africa

Total’s Hellas Gladiator signaling for Bonny Island, ETA 21-Oct.

 

Newbuilds Market Focus

Since the start of the 2015, the LPG trade has seen a considerable expansion due to US shale gas, demand growth and refinery capacity expansion in Asia. This is reflected in the rapid growth of the gas carrier fleet, where 86 newbuilds were added to the global fleet in 2015, a staggering 62% increase from 2014 (based on Kpler data).
The traditional trading routes of East of Suez have been disrupted by massive export volumes coming from West of Suez, namely the United States, which together with M.East, are feeding the constant LPG demand growth of Asia.This growth is linked to Chinese petchem plants as well as the replacement of high carbon-emission fuels in rural areas, especially in India, which is now the world’s second largest LPG importer.
In order to meet the increased bulk volumes and also try to take advantage of the arbitrage window between the US and Asia, a large number of VLGCs was ordered between 2014 to 2016, with Kpler data suggesting a vast expansion from 8 to 35 and then 44 VLGC Newbuilds in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.

 

However, the large increase in LPG supply and fleet availability influenced the VLGC freight rates and 2017 delivery numbers contracted to 25 vessels (19 delivered and 6 expected by the end of Q4 2017).
During the same period, the fleet of Handysize, MGC and LGC also increased substantially with double orders of Handysize between 2014-2015, addition of 5 LGCs in 2015-2016 and high growth rates in deliveries of MGCs after 2016. Remarkably, the addition of new SGCs contracted as demand remains more challenging in this market. In addition, Kpler data indicate no LGC delivery in 2017, while the ever-growing quantity of US Shale ethane is opening the new VLEC market, which currently numbers 6 vessels.

Fleet Evolution

Since the beginning of the market, the fleet has evolved considerably from SGCs, that are able to transport small capacities, to VLGCs and even VLECs, that can carry more than 70,000 cb of product.
Looking at the active vessels, Kpler data indicate a vast expansion of the fleet starting from 1990s (165 vessels were delivered between 1991 and 1995), while the VLGC boom started in 2005 onwards.
The next figure presents the current LPG Fleet mix:

This week, we saw newbuilds being added to the fleet, including 2 VLGC’s:
  • Gas Zenith (79,000cm) is leaving the Ulsan Shipyard before her expected date (Dec 2017) and is signalling for Balboa Anch, ETA 21-Oct. She’s relet to JGE until Dec 2022.
  • Unique Shipping’s newbuild Oriental King (84,000cm) left the Ulsan Shipyard and is now heading to USGC for her first load, ETA 29-Oct.
  • Mygas (12,000cm) joined the fleet of Sloman Neptun. She is operated by Unigas International.

Separator Line

 

Kpler EU Gas (Increased Liftings from Ras Laffan)

Originally Released on 5 October 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

NORTHWEST EUROPE SUMMARY

SPAIN SUMMARY
EUROPEAN LINE-UP
South Hook
We received the confirmation that these vessels are expected to arrive at South Hook:Qatargas’ Al Karaana is confirmed by the Port Authority, ETA 10-October
Qatargas’ Al Samriya is confirmed by sources and supported by AIS and vessel position, ETA 22-October.
Qatargas’ Aamira is confirmed by sources, ETA 26-October. Qatargas’ Umm Slal is also confirmed by sources, ETA 31-October. Since the vessels are not loading yet, they may be swapped for another vessel, but the slots are booked.

 

Swinoujscie

Qatargas’ Al Ruwais is confirmed to discharge her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo, ETA 18-October.

Gate
Statoil’s Arctic Discoverer loaded at Snohvit on 1-October and is now making her laden voyage towards the terminal, ETA 13-October.

Fos Cavaou

Total’s Arctic Lady is currently reloading at Fos Cavaou. Kpler analysts expect her to discharge at Jebel Ali, ETA 19-October.

Montoir

Petrobras’ Cool Runner reloaded on 27-September and is now delivering to Brazil, ETA 17-October.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris is signalling for Montoir where she will reload, ETA 11-October. The vessel is currently anchored at Cadiz.

 

Sines
Sines imports have reached record levels in the past couple of months with a high level of contracted cargoes from Nigeria and spot cargoes from other locations like USA and Qatar. According to the terminal operator, up to 5 vessels are expected in October, which indicates that this pattern will continue.LNG Lagos Ii loaded at Bonny on 28-September and will discharge a cargo on 10-October.

Barcelona

Currently, three vessels are expected to arrive in the next few days:

Gas Natural’s Catalunya Spirit lifted a cargo at Atlantic LNG on 1-October and is now signalling for the terminal, ETA 12-October.
Sonatrach’s Tessala is expected to arrive by the Port Authorities on 20-October.
RasGas’ Umm Al Amad is delivering her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo on 28-October.

 

Aliaga
RasGas’ Al Shamal is confirmed by sources, ETA 11-October.

 

Rovigo

RasGas’ Al Daayen loaded at Ras Laffan on 27-September and will deliver on 10-October.
RasGas’ Al Marrouna is loading at Ras Laffan and expected to arrive at the plant on 17-October.

 

TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR

Qatargas’ Al Bahiya is now crossing the Mediterranean Sea with no clear destination.
Shell’s Gaslog Savannah loaded at Ras Laffan on 2-October and is currently signalling for the Suez Canal, ETA 11-October.

 

RAS LAFFAN

Liftings at Ras Laffan increased in Week 40. Top 5 destinations for W39 appeared: India 0.29 Mt, UK 0.23 Mt, Taiwan 0.19 Mt, Japan 0.18 Mt, China 0.09 Mt. The majority of vessels headed towards Far East. Currently, there are 4 vessels loading at the plant.

 

 

STOCK & SEND-OUT

During the previous week, Gate and Dragon each received one cargo. South Hook average send-out still remains low:

 


European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).
PLANNED MAINTENANCE
blog-orange-lineblog-orange-line