Kpler LPG (Increasing Japan LPG Imports)

Originally Released on 9 November 2017

Vessels
Americas
This week, we are witnessing 3 VLGCs heading to FE via Cape of Good Hope:
  • Geogas’ Jia Yuan, ex-Marcus Hook, signalling for Chita, ETA 12-Dec.
  • Petredec’s Yamabuki , ex-Nederland, signalling for Durban, ETA 24-Nov.
  • Shell’s Pacific Hong Kong, ex-Nederland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 8-Dec.
Above: vessels heading to FE through COGH, instead of Panama Canal
Nadeshiko Gas has finally finished her load, ex- Ferndale, and is now signalling for South Korea, ETA 16-Nov.
Trafigura’s Waregem, ex-Pajaritos, is heading to discharge at Mohammedia, ETA 9-Nov.
Itochu’s Gas Zenith, ex-Enterprise, is crossing the Panama Canal to deliver her maiden cargo to FE. She is expected at FE on 23-Dec.
Petredec’s Bw Malacca, ex-Jose and Enterprise is currently discharging part of her cargo at Petredec Mauritius terminal.

Middle East

SK Gas’ G. Forever, ex-Yanbu, is heading to discharge at Kalbut, ETA 14-Nov.
TSW’s Gas Taurus, ex-Al Ruwais, is expected to discharge her cargo at Indonesia, ETA 17-Nov.
Europe
The VLGC Pacific Weihai arrived at Hammerfest, ETA 7-Nov.
Shell’s Sansovino, ex Kaarsto, completed a partial discharge in Aygaz Izmit and is now heading to discharge the rest of her cargo at Dortyol, ETA 7-Nov.

 

Australia

BP’s Clermont, ex-NWS, is heading to discharge her cargo at Taiwan, ETA 14-Nov.

Africa

Pacific Binzhou was fixed by BP to deliver a cargo out of Soyo. She is expected to load at Soyo on 21-Nov.

Cresques was fixed by Geogas to deliver a cargo out of Bonny, loading ETA 26-Nov.

Aquamarine Progress was fixed by Sahara to deliver a cargo out of Escravos, loading ETA 21-Nov.

Interesting STS

Geogas’ Clipper Moon, ex-Enterprise, is expected to discharge her cargo again via STS with Bw Gemini at Ocoa Bay Anchorage. ETA 10-Nov.

Shell’s Sinndar, ex-Nederland, is signalling for Male anchorage, ETA 28-Nov. She is expected to discharge part of her cargo again via STS with Lubara.

Newbuilds

Newbuild Mont Fort left the Korean Shipyard and is now heading to Panama Canal. She is relet to Gunvor for a 10 year-TC.

Diversion Alerts

Originally signalling for Panama Canal, Flopec’s Clipper Victory changed her destination and is now heading to Terneuzen, ETA 15-Nov.

Originally signalling for Fujairah, BW’s Bw Loyalty updated her AIS signal and is now heading to Nederland US, ETA 7-Dec.

 

Increase of Japanese LPG imports
In September, strong global Oil prices boosted the LPG prices and the naphtha crack spread had gradually widened, therefore making CFR Japan Propane costlier than naphtha. As producers in Europe and Asia tend to switch feedstocks based on cracking margins, Japanese LPG imports experienced a drop of 40% MoM in September to 451 Kt, the lowest value in 2017, based on Kpler data. This figure proves that LPG continued to yield less favourable cracking economics relative to naphtha.
As winter approaches, the slowdown in September questioned the efficiency of the Asian inventories to meet heating and cooking demand ahead. However, the strong figure of 986 Kt in October is expected to eliminate much of the shortfall in Japan and Asian Inventories.

Kpler data reveal that the total demand in Far East steadily increased from August onward. In October, demand was higher by 425 Kt m/m, at 3885 Kt, suggesting a trend towards stronger demand relative to the first half of 2017.
Looking at the monthly imports of the 3 top Far East Importers, China helped sustaining the FE imports to the current levels as Japanese and S.Korean demand dropped.

 


 

Forward looking, Indonesia and Iran LPG talks for 2018

Indonesia’s Pertamina will start official discussions with NIOC this week for the renewal of their term LPG import contract for 2018 supplies. The original contract consisted of a 600,000 mt of LPG to be delivered over 2016-2017 in 14 cargoes.

Kpler data reveal that since the delivery of the first 44,000 mt evenly split propane/butane parcel in Oct-2016, there have been 12 cargo shipments. The current level of Iranian exports to Indonesia are approximately 550,000 mt, a figure close to the original agreement. (November import numbers are subject to change as Kpler is closely monitoring the daily market).Separator LineSeparator Line

Kpler LNG (Focus on Yamal LNG)

Originally Released on 9 November 2017

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Centrica’s Cool Voyager reloaded at Grain on 7-November where she was berthed for 4 days. Now the vessel is headed towards China, ETA 10-December.

Trafigura’s Adam LNG reloaded at Gate on 25-October and is now headed towards MAAGP via the Cape of Good Hope, ETA 30-November.

Trafigura’s Golar Tundra reloaded at Montoir on 26-October and is now crossing the Red Sea with no clear destination.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris reloaded at Montoir on 4-November and is signalling for the Suez Canal, ETA 16-November.

Shell’s Methane Nile Eagle is now reloading at Fos Cavaou. The vessel is expected to deliver to Ain Sokhna, ETA 11-November.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

Diversion: Cheniere’s Kita LNG loaded at Sabine Pass on 20-October and was initially signalling for Rayong MTP, ETA 14-November. The destination has been cancelled which is confirmed by her AIS, and the vessel is currently floating in the Mediterranean Sea.

Chevron’s Asia Venture loaded the first project’s cargo at Wheatstone on 16-October and is now making her laden voyage towards Futtsu, ETA 9-November. Also, two vessels are expected to load at the terminal in the new few days: Pacific Eurus, ETA 10-November, and Grace Barleria, ETA 19-November.

Engie’s Gdf Suez Point Fortin loaded at Snohvit on 27-October and is expected to discharge a small volume at Zeebrugge on 18-November. The vessel then will head towards Hazira to deliver the rest of the cargo, ETA 19-December.

RasGas’ Al Dafna loaded at Ras Laffan on 1-November and is confirmed to deliver her cargo to Dunkerque on 19-November.

Gas Natural’s Pskov loaded at Sabine Pass on 6-November and is now making her laden voyage towards Barcelona, ETA 20-November.

Altamira is now expecting three tender cargoes from Bonny aboard:
Shell’s Gaslog Santiago, ETA 16-November
NLNG’s LNG Bayelsa, ETA 25-November
Shell’s Maran Gas Ulysses, ETA 3-December

Eni’s Al Marrouna lifted a cargo at Idku and is currently discharging at Dahej.

Botas’ newbuild MOL FSRU Challenger loaded at Ras Laffan on 2-November and is now headed towards Dortyol where she will be set as a FSRU unit, ETA 16-November.

 

YAMAL LNG

Yamal LNG’s Christophe De Margerie arrived at the Yamal berth on 7-November and is currently waiting to load the first project’s cargo.

Yamal LNG’s Boris Vilkitsky has been delivered and is now signalling for Yamal, ETA 25-November. The vessel is now crossing the Bering Sea:

Another project’s vessel, Yamal LNG’s Fedor Litke has been also delivered and is now expected to stop at Nahodka, Russia before heading towards the terminal.

Fluxys LNG is currently at the last stage of constructing their fifth LNG storage tank of 180,000 m³ at Zeebrugge. It will be used for providing transshipment services to Yamal LNG, with project’s icebreaker tankers delivering the Yamal volumes and conventional vessels making final transit.

The high ice class ARC7 LNG vessels are capable of breaking through thick 2.1m ice to deliver the volumes via the Northern Sea Route during Arctic summer (July to December). Otherwise, LNG will be delivered to the Far East markets via Zeebrugge and subsequently, the Suez Canal:

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Kpler OIL (Oil-on-water increase in China)

Originally Released on 9 November 2017

Chinese Oil-on-Water Moves Higher

In late October and early November, total Chinese oil-on-water volumes fell by more than 15 million barrels. This trend has since reversed itself over the course of the last week. Between 11/3 and 11/9, total oil-on-water grew by 10 million barrels – a 43% increase in just 6 days.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Slow Further

The loading situation at Kirkuk Terminal grew worse over the past week. Between 11/2 and 11/9, only one load took place (717 kbd) and there was an unprecedented 6-day gap where no loadings took place at all. This follows two weeks of successively lower levels of crude leaving the port. This all began with fighting in Northern Iraq between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in mid-October.

Daily U.S. Export Loadings Trend Lower

Much of October realized large and consistent daily U.S. export loadings. Week-ending 11/3 broke this upward trend. Only two loading days (10/29 and 10/30) surpassed the 1.5-million-barrel mark…the previous week realized six such days.

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Slowly Increasing

Between 11/1 and 11/5, PADD 3 oil-on-water fell by 13.2 million barrels. This trend has since reversed increasing 4 million barrels over the past 3-days. Most of this oil appears to be moving in and out of the region quite quickly as floating storage remains largely at or below 20% – this is a change from the 30%+ levels realized after Hurricane Harvey.

South Korea Once Again Receiving Crude from China

Between May and August of this year, South Korea stopped receiving shipments of Chinese crude. This was a subtle change from earlier in the year when South Korea was importing an average of 74 kbd from China on a weekly basis. Over the past several weeks, Chinese crude has once again flowed towards South Korea. The next shipment is due to arrive aboard the Ds Venture on November 14th.

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Kpler OIL (OPEC October Exports)

Originally Released on 2 November 2017

OPEC October Exports Remain Nearly Flat

Month-over-month seaborne crude exports for the OPEC organization fell by 203 kbd – a 0.8% decrease. Saudi realized the largest month-over-month gain, adding 368 kbd in seaborne exports for October while Nigeria realized the largest decline at 352 kbd.

U.S. Daily Import Loadings Trend Slightly Lower

For EIA week-ending 10/20, U.S. seaborne import flows surpassed 5 million bpd for the first time in more than 2-months. Daily seaborne oil import flows have since indicated a slightly downward trend. Between 10/20 and 10/30, the 5-day moving average fell by 2,759 kbd – a 49% decrease. The moving average has recovered slightly over the past 2 days.

PADD 3 Congestion Continues

PADD 3 congestion remains an ongoing problem. Floating storage, which in this case assumes crude volumes on vessels that have moved at less than 1 knot for at least the past 10-days, spiked following the 5 million bpd import level for EIA week-ending 10/20. This also coincides with a 4-week period that has averaged 1.7 million bpd in exports leaving PADD 3. Daily floating storage has managed to fall over the past 3-days back to levels seen earlier in October.

World Oil-on-Water Continues to Trend Higher

World oil-on-water has consistently trended higher since mid-October. Between 10/13 and 11/2, oil-on-water increased by 118 kbd – a 13% increase in just 20 days.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Remain Depressed

For the second week in a row, daily loadings at Kirkuk Terminal remain weak. Since 10/21, the 5-day moving average has fluctuated within a range between 90 kbd and 341 kbd. This is well below the bounded loading range in early October, before fighting broke out in northern Iraq between Baghdad and the Kurdish Peshmerga interrupting oil production operations in the Kirkuk region.

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Kpler LNG (Adam LNG reloaded at Gate)

Originally Released on 2 November 2017

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Trafigura’s Adam LNG reloaded at Gate on 25-October and initially headed towards MAAGP via the Suez Canal with ETA 4-November. The vessel changed her direction on 31-October towards Gibraltar. Her AIS still indicates MAAGP, with updated ETA 27-November.

Trafigura’s Golar Snow reloaded at Fos Cavaou on 20-October and is now expected to deliver to Hazira, ETA 2-November.

Trafigura’s Golar Tundra reloaded at Montoir on 26-October and is now making her voyage across the Mediterranean Sea with no clear destination.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris is expected to reload a cargo at Montoir on 4-November.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

Chevron’s Asia Venture loaded a first project’s cargo at Wheatstone on 30-October and is now making her laden voyage towards Futtsu, ETA 7-November. The vessel arrived at the terminal on 16-October and was waiting for a load since. Meanwhile, the terminal is expecting to load their second cargo aboard Grace Barleria, ETA 5-November.

Diverted Gas Natural’s Cadiz Knutsen loaded at Atlantic LNG on 14-October and initially was heading towards Gibraltar. She diverted on 24-October and discharged her cargo at Ponce on 30-October. The vessel is now ballasting towards Sabine Pass.

Gas Natural’s La Mancha Knutsen loaded at Sabine Pass on 26-October and is delivering to Huelva, ETA 7-November.

Total’s Arctic Lady loaded at Ras Laffan on 29-October and is currently delivering to Zeebrugge, ETA 17-November.

Potential diversion: Cheniere’s Golar Crystal lifted a tender cargo at Bonny on 26-October and initially headed towards the Cape of Good Hope. The vessel slowed down on 1-November and is currently floating offshore of Namibia.

Shell’s Maran Gas Ulysses is now loading at Bonny her tender cargo for CFE at Altamira, ETA 3-December.

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Kpler LPG (Persian Gulf Exports)

Originally Released on 2 November 2017

Vessels
Americas
This week, we are witnessing 3 VLGCs heading to FE via Cape of Good Hope:
  • Vitol’s Bw Pine is expected to FE by 14-Dec.
  • Shell’s Sinndar early track is indicating a voyage via COGH.
  • Petredec’s Spread Eagle diverted towards the long route via COGH.

On the other hand, 6 VLGC’s are expected to pass the Cape of Good Hope on their way to USGC:

  • Avance Gas’ Chinook, current itinerary Malacca Strait, signalling for Freeport, ETA 10-Dec.
  • Avance Gas’ Breeze, signalling for Houston, ETA 16-Dec.
  • Avance Gas’ Iris Glory, current itinerary Malacca Strait, signalling for Houston, ETA 6-Dec.
  • Astomos’ Ns Frontier signalling for Nederland, ETA 26-Nov.
  • Shell’s Shaamit signalling for Nederland, ETA 30-Nov.
  • Engie’s Mistral is expected at Houston by 3-Dec.
Astomos’ Crystal River completed her maiden voyage from Nederland to Japan and is now heading back to USGC for her second load, ETA 25-Nov.
Trafigura’s Waregem, ex-Pajaritos, is heading to discharge at Mohammedia, ETA 9-Nov.
Constellation was fixed by Petrobras to deliver a US cargo to Flushing. She is expected at USGC by 24-Nov.
Shell’s Hampshire, ex-Nederland, is heading to discharge at Kalbut, ETA 3-Nov.
Solvang’s Clipper Saturn, ex- Marcus Hook is heading to discharge at Repsol Butano, ETA 3-Nov.

 

Middle East

BW’s BW Sakura, ex-Ras Tanura, is signalling for Kalbut, ETA 9-Nov.

Astomos’ Gas Diana loaded part of her cargo from Al Ruwais and is now completing her load at Sitra.

Europe

Shell’s Sansovino, ex-Kaarstoe, is currently discharging at Aygaz Izmit, Turkey.

Australia

Bonython & Westernport are exporting their first lpg cargoes to Africa. Geogas’ Bw Messina is on her way to EAF, probably for a partial discharge at Petredec Mauritius first and the rest via STS at Beira Anchorage, ex-Bonython & Westernport.

Astomos’ Legend Prestige is signalling to load at Westernport, ETA 8-Nov.

Africa

Chevron’s Hellas Glory, ex-Escravos discharged part of her cargo at Petredec Mauritius and is now signalling for Dongguan, ETA 14-Nov.

Interesting STS

Shell’s Shahrastani discharged part of her cargo via STS with Shell’s Lubara at Male Anchorage. The latter is acting as a Floating Storage at the anchorage .

Geogas’ Karoline N discharged her cargo via STS with BW’s Bw Gemini at Ocoa Bay Anchorage. The latter is acting as a Floating Storage at Ocoa Bay Anchorage..

 

Middle Eastern LPG exports to FE lower in October

Kpler data reveal a decrease of Middle Eastern LPG supplies to Far East with exports falling m/m by 107 Kt. As winter approaches, demand in Asia, especially in China, builds up and the tight LPG supply from M.E. is pushing importers to look at the other side of the Atlantic to secure their inventories. That said, US has increased its share of exports to Far East by 8% over the last two months, or an increase of 407 Kt m/m between September and October.

 

Middle Eastern Countries with Supply Disruptions

The drop of ME exports comes mainly from two countries, namely the UAE and Iran. In Iran, the supply disruptions are linked to the unexpected outages of the South Pars field, which will probably have an impact on exports until the end of the year. In UAE, the new 0.5 Mpty PDH plant of Takreer – which is in the stage of trial – is causing a shift of part of the country’s LPG exports to domestic use.

 

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Kpler OIL (Kirkuk Terminal Loadings)

Originally Released on 26 October 2017

World Oil-On-Water Increases

Over the past seven days, world oil-on-water has steadily increased to 983 million barrels – an 8% increase over the period. In addition, four days in the past week all realized day-over-day oil-on-water increases of at least 1%.

PADD 3 Oil-On-Water Spikes Higher

Following a week of relatively lower oil-on-water volume, PADD 3 is once again inundated with crude. Since October 19th, total oil-on-water has increased 7.2 million barrels. Floating storage as a percentage of oil-on-water has also moved back to a range near 20%.

Basrah Loadings Hold Steady

Earlier this week, the Iraqi central government announced that they would be increasing the volume of crude being loaded for export at the Al Basrah Terminal, located in the Persian Gulf, as a result of fighting in the northern Kirkuk region of Iraq. Such increases have not yet readily materialized. Since 10/17, the 7-day moving average has held steady within a range of 3,000 and 4,000 kbd – this is little changed from loadings earlier in October. An unusually large load of 8,152 kbd on 10/26 has broken the horizontal trend slightly.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Remain Depressed

Fighting between the Iraqi government and the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) continues to hamper Kirkuk Terminal loadings. Over the past seven days, a total of 1,480 kbd has been loaded (average of 211 kbd for the week). This is well below the average weekly volume of 587 kbd seen through the first two weeks of October.

U.S. Imports Show Strength for Week-Ending 10/20

U.S. import levels signal a return to normality following a damaging hurricane season. For the first time since the week of 8/18, imports finished above 5,000 kbd. Notice the substantial import dip in early September resulting from Hurricane Harvey.

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