Kpler LPG Interesting Moves

Originally Released on 1 February 2018
AMERICAS

9 vessels with US-sourced LPG are currently headed towards Europe. Among other reasons, these cargoes gave preference to Europe instead of doing their regular deliveries to the Far East due to the upcoming Chinese New Year (that fell on February 16) and therefore traditionally lower interest from Chinese buyers during this period.

This therefore resulted in the largest shipments of U.S. LPG to Europe since January 2017 and reached 461 kt last month. More detailed breakdown of U.S. shipments to Europe can be obtained directly on Kpler platform.

U.S. LPG deliveries to Europe

 

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Vitol’s Yuyo Spirit discharged her Bonny-sourced cargo via 2 partials in China last month and is now heading back to Bonny. Her estimated loading date is 23-Feb.

Almajedah is currently ballasting next to Ras Laffan port and will potentially switch from carrying Ammonia to LPG.

Statoil’s Clipper Posh is now ballasting towards Gibraltar after discharging her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo between China and South Korea.

 

AUSTRALIA

ExxonMobil’s Oriental King is now delivering her evenly-split 46 kt cargo from Westernport to Japan. At the same time, Geogas’ Cratis is now floating offshore Botany and is ready to discharge her Freeport-sourced propane cargo there.

After discharing her Westernport-sourced cargo in Japan, Gas Taurus is now crossing Pacific Ocean to pick up her next cargo from USGC, ETA 28-Feb.

 

TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR

Geogas’ Eagle Ford Lady is now heading at 14 knots towards Western Africa with her Enterprise-sourced cargo. Her final destination is yet to be determined.

Petredec’s newbuild Pinza is now crossing the Pacific Ocean on her way to pick up a maiden cargo from the USGC. Kpler Analysts expect her to cross the Panama Canal around 17 February.

4 laden VLGCs are currently floating next to Ningbo Port in China:

VLGCs waiting to discharge at Ningbo
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Kpler LPG (Year Ends)

Originally published 28 December 2017

Vessels
Americas

This week we are witnessing 4 Ethane cargoes out of US:

  • Borealis’ Navigator Aurora, ex-Morgans Point, is heading to Stenungsund, ETA 9-Jan.
  • Ineos’ Js Ineos Insight, ex-Morgans Point, is heading to Rafnes, ETA 7-Jan.
  • Ineos’ Js Ineos Intrepid, ex-Marcus Hook, is heading to Grangemouth, ETA 7-Jan.
  • RIL’s Ethane Opal, ex-Morgans Point, is heading to Dahej, ETA 24-Jan.

– Petredec’s Morston, ex-Enterprise, is currently waiting to cross the Panama Canal on her way to Chorrillo.
– After 4 months of Break Bulk operation at Brisbane Anchorage, Trafigura’s Bw Njord finally discharged her cargo fully and is now heading to Panama Canal, ETA 12-Jan.
– Corsair was fixed by Mabanaft to load a cargo out of Houston, ETA 4-Feb. The vessel is currently crossing the Malacca Strait, an indication of a voyage via the Cape of Good Hope.
– Gas Leo -current itinerary Indian Ocean- updated her AIS signalling for Houston, ETA 28-Jan.

Europe
– Glencore’s Bw Princess, ex-Freeport, is heading to Europe, ETA 9-Jan.

 

Asia

– Gas Taurus is signalling for Westernport, ETA 5-Jan.
– Pertamina’s Pertamina Gas 1 is currently loading a cargo at Asaluyeh for her next voyage to Indonesia.
– OE’s Jia Yuan is currently loading at Bonython.

Africa

– Total’s Bw Trader is heading to load at Soyo, ETA 31-Dec.
– Chevron’s Hellas Glory is currently loading at Escravos, while Bw Mindoro is loading at Bonny.

 

Year ends with two new LPG Markets
As 2017 is coming to an end, the LPG Global market had a small surprise; with two countries joining the waterborne trade.
West of Suez, an LPG vessel arrived for the first time to Nicaragua, while on the other side of the world -East of Suez- Myanmar received its first waterborne LPG on December, 23.

 

Myanmar – Government efforts to provide LPG to Yangon households 

 

On December 23, 2017, Nicaragua received its first waterborne LPG cargo from the vessel Senna 2 . Parami Energy Service Co has won the rental tender for the state Refinery in Thanlyin. The company is hiring a government-owned storage tank and jetty under a one-year contract. With its first cargo received in December, Parami Energy plans to distribute LPG for cooking. Its target is to distribute 4,000 tonnes of LPG to 150,000 families in Yangon.

Parami Energy is not the only local company interested in the LPG market. Last October, Elite Company has been granted permission to distribute LPG in Myanmar. Elite Company will start importing LPG as soon as the construction of its LPG storage tank and jetty at the Thilawa Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is complete. In addition, a third firm, APEX Co, already has a jetty and has recently been permitted to do business.

 

Above: Thanlyin Storage Terminal, Myanmar
Nicaragua – LPG Vessel for the first time 
On December 22, 2017, Nicaragua received for the first time in its history an LPG cargo. Vitol’s Epic Curacao, discharged approximately 1.5 kt of LPG to the Miramar Plant, which is jointly owned by PDVSA (51%) and Petronic (49%).
Miramar Plant, which has three LPG storage spheres, is capable of supplying 50% of the country’s LPG consumption every month.
According to a government statement, Nicaragua aims to become one of the most important LPG centers in Central America.

 

Kpler LNG (Interesting Moves)

Originally published 21 December 2017

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

GasPort LNG received only one cargo since the start-up due to ongoing issues at the terminal. Several vessels diverted from the port in the past month. Shell’s Gaslog Greece loaded at Sabine Pass on 10-November and was expected to discharge on 7-December. Statoil’s Arctic Aurora loaded at Snohvit on 22-November and was initially scheduled for GasPort, but the vessel delivered to Dahej on 14-December. Soyo lifted a cargo at Soyo on 23-November and instead of GasPort, discharged at Dahej on 20-December.

Yamal LNG’s Christophe De Margerie loaded the first Yamal’s cargo and is now confirmed to discharge at Grain, ETA 28-December.
Yamal LNG’s Boris Vilkitsky is now back at the Yamal berth.

 

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

PetroChina’s Clean Energy reloaded a cargo at SLNG on 14-December and is currently signalling for China, ETA 23-December.

Engie’s Gaselys loaded a partial cargo at Sabine Pass and delivered to Andres on 13-December. She is now ballasting towards Grain to reload, ETA 28-December.

Engie’s Wilforce reloaded at Montoir on 15-December and is now about to cross the Mediterranean Sea with no clear destination.

Shell’s Methane Princess is expected to reload at Montoir on 22-December.

Uniper’s Pskov is still ballasting outside of Gate and expected to reload soon.

 

INTERESTING MOVES

Statoil’s Arctic Voyager loaded at Snohvit on 20-December and is expected to discharge at Gate on 25-December.

Petrobras’s Cool Runner was headed towards Gibraltar with her Atlantic LNG-sourced cargo after floating offshore of Bahia since 19-November. The vessel changed her route on 13-December and is now signalling for the Far East, ETA 10-January.

Gas Natural’s La Mancha Knutsen lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 16-December and is now making her laden voyage towards Mejillones, ETA 30-December.

Total’s Sk Audace loaded at Sabine Pass on 13-December and is currently expected to deliver to Izmir, Turkey ETA 30-December.

Shell’s Bilbao Knutsen lifted a cargo at Atlantic LNG on 11-December and will potentially deliver to NWE, ETA 26-December.

Shell’s Methane Kari Elin loaded at Atlantic LNG on 30-December and is expected by Kpler Analysts to discharge in Europe, ETA 30-December.

 

Kpler Oil (World Oil-on-Water Flattens Out)

Originally Released on 21 December 2017

World Oil-on-Water Flattens Out

Over the past 3-weeks, world oil-on-water has fluctuated within a narrow bound. Between 12/4 and 12/20, oil-on-water remained between 850 and 875 million barrels, according to the 10-day moving average. This follows a November that realized world daily oil-on-water that trended lower by more than 100 million barrels.

Dramatically Malacca Strait Oil-on-Water Trends Lower 

Malacca Strait oil-on-water was in a consistent uptrend through November and early December. Between 11/1 and 12/15, the 10-day moving average increased 14 million barrels – a 56% expansion. Over the past 2-weeks, this trend has since broken to the downside.

Hound Point Seaborne Exports Fall Dramatically 

The North Sea Forties pipeline (also known as FPS) has officially been out of operation for more than a week following the discovery of a widening hairline fracture along a portion of the pipe near Aberdeenshire.  FPS, which has a capacity of 450,000 bpd, connects 80+ offshore production fields to the United Kingdom.Hounds Point, the main export terminal for Forties grade crude oil, has realized large week-over-week drops in crude loaded for export. Weeks-starting 12/11 and 12/18 have loaded an average of 123 kbd, well below the 300+ kbd levels from late November and early December. Ineos has announced the expectation that the Forties Pipeline should be back in limited operation by early 2018.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Recover Slightly

Kirkuk Terminal daily loadings have recovered slightly over the past two-weeks. Kirkuk Terminal serves as the main seaborne loading point for Kirkuk grade crude oil produced in Northern Iraq. Disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government in mid-October significantly disrupted production and export flows. Since 12/2, the 10-day moving average has increased 120 kbd – an 89% jump.

Saldanha Bay December Net Flows

The Saldanha Bay storage terminal, located on the west coast of South Africa, has realized a net positive inflow of crude oil into the facility since the beginning of December. Of the six total vessels that have docked with Saldanha, four have discharged crude into the facility. AIS signaling indicates another discharge of 1.07 million barrels into Saldanha on 12/28.

Figure: Positive values imply volume being discharged into the facility while negative values imply volume being loaded on vessels and leaving Saldanha.

 

Kpler OIL (Increasing Exports from Venezuela)

Originally Released on 14 December 2017

Canadian Seaborne Exports Spike

Over the past several days, Canadian seaborne oil export loadings have shown strength. Between 12/8 and 12/13, the 7-day moving average increased 455 kbd. A sizable 768 kbd oil shipment was loaded for Italy on 12/9, the first flow of its kind since late-October.

South Korean Imports Rebound

Following a steady rise and fall in daily import volumes into South Korea in late-November, over the past week import volumes have once again rebounded. Between 12/8 and 12/13, the 7-day moving average increased 646 kbd. Two large shipments from Saudi Arabia (3,117 kbd) and Kuwait (2,179 kbd) on 12/6 helped to drive import levels higher for the week.

U.S. Exports Struggle to Find Direction

U.S. seaborne oil exports have struggled to find direction over the past month. Week-ending 12/8 finished at 1,054 kbd in oil shipped abroad – a 29% decrease week-over-week. This is a continuation of the zig-zag pattern first established in mid-November.

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Increases

December has been marked by a consistent increase in PADD 3 oil-on-water volumes. Between 12/3 and 12/14, oil-on-water has increased 8.43 million barrels. It appears that most of this volume is readily moving in and out of the region – floating storage has remained at or below 20% of total oil-on-water volume. Floating storage is assumed as crude on vessels that have moved at less than one knot for at least the past 10-days.

Venezuelan Exports Trend Higher

Following a prolonged period of export declines, Venezuela has managed to grow oil shipments leaving the nation-state since late-October. Between weeks-starting 10/30 and  12/4, crude leaving Venezuelan shores increased by 414 kbd – a 35% change.

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Kpler LNG (Cool Runner diversion)

Originally Released on 14 December 2017

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

This week, the U.K. was experiencing shortages in the gas supply system. With several disruptions, mainly caused by outages in the North Sea and the Baumgarten explosion in Austria, both Dragon and Grain increased send-out.
Italy was also heavily impacted by the Baumgarten explosion, which had interrupted the pipeline flow of Russian gas into the Italian grid. Italy’s industry minister declared a state of emergency on 12-December. The pipeline is fixed now and physical flows are stabilized.

At Rovigo, 4 vessels are expected to arrive in the next few days. One or more vessels could be expected for potential diversions for Italy in December:

RasGas’ Al Marrouna, ETA 14-December
RasGas’ Al Daayen, ETA 19-December
RasGas’ Lusail, ETA 21-December
RasGas’ Simaisma, ETA 27-December

Shell’s Maran Gas Delphi is expected to deliver her cool-down cargo from Bonny to Dominion’s Cove Point on 14-December, indicating that the facility will soon ship its first cargo.
This new U.S.-based liquefaction plant is set to produce 5.25 mtpa of LNG. Minimum amount of gas was inserted so far, however the tanks are now ready to accommodate the cool-down cargo.

Yamal LNG’s Christophe De Margerie loaded the first Yamal’s cargo and is now expected to deliver to Grain, ETA 28-December. It remains unclear if Petronas will reload LNG for Asia delivery as it was planned initially, or if the cargo will supply the local gas market.
Yamal LNG’s Boris Vilkitsky has completed her load on 9-December and is now floating outside Yamal port limits.

 

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

PetroChina’s Seri Bakti reloaded a cargo at SLNG on 7-December and is currently signalling for Gaolan, ETA 18-December.

Engie’s Wilforce is about to reload at Montoir, ETA 14-December.

Uniper’s Pskov is now ballasting towards Gate to reload, ETA 16-December.

Shizuoka Gas reloaded LNG aboard CNOOC’s Neo Energy on 29-November. The cargo was delivered to Tianjin on 12-December.

Petrobras’ Golar Winter reloaded at Pecem on 5-December and is now discharging a cargo at Bahia.

Shell’s Hispania Spirit reloaded at Gate on 28-November and delivered her cargo to Aqaba on 11-December.

 

INTERESTING MOVES

Diversion Alert: Petrobras’s Cool Runner was headed towards Gibraltar with her Atlantic LNG-sourced cargo after floating offshore of Bahia since 19-November. The vessel changed her route on 13-Dec and is now signalling for Cape Town, ETA 25-December.

Diversion Alert: Shell’s Gaslog Greece loaded at Sabine Pass on 10-November and was expected to deliver to Port Qasim. She was floating outside the port for 3 days and has now diverted to the Far East. Gasport LNG recently faced an unplanned outage.

Diversion Alert: Esshu Maru loaded at Sabine Pass on 6-December and was initially signalling for Pecem, ETA 22-December. Now the vessel is headed towards the Far East.

LNG Rivers loaded at Bonny on 9-December and was floating offshore of Republic of the Congo until 13-December. Now the vessel is headed towards Montoir at 18.9 Kn.

Chevron’s Asia Venture loaded at Gorgon on 27-November and was floating for 10 days at Dampier. The vessel is currently making her laden voyage towards Tobata, ETA 21-December.

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Kpler LPG (Hit to Grangemouth LPG Exports)

 

Originally Released on 14 December 2017
Vessels
Americas

This week we are not witnessing any vessel heading to FE via the Cape of Good Hope.

After 6 months of STS between Panama and Chorillo, Petredec’s Morston has finally crossed the Panama Canal and is signalling for Houston, ETA 19-Dec.

The following Ineos’ Ethane-dedicated vessels are on their to deliver their Ethane cargo to Europe:

RIL’s VLEC Ethane Topaz loaded another ethane cargo at Morgans Point and is heading to India. She is expected at Dahej by 9-Jan.

Europe
Corvette, ex-Enterprise, diverted towards Mohammedia, ETA 22-Dec. She was originally bounded for F.East.
Petredec’s Clipper Victory, ex-Targa, is crossing the Atlantic Ocean and signalling for Suez Canal, ETA 29-Dec.

Asia

– Petredec’s Yamabuki, ex-Nederland, is currently discharging at Teluk Semangka.
With the end of the aforementioned voyage, Indonesia is expected to receive the following last cargoes for 2017:

  • Bw Tokyo, ex-Al Ruwais, is expected at Teluk Semangka by 16-Dec.
  • Shell’s Chaparral, ex-Nederland, is expected at Teluk Semangka by 24-Dec.
  • Shell’s Dorset, ex-Ras Laffan, is expected at Kalbut by 15-Dec.
  • Petredec’s Pacific Shanghai, ex-Asaluyeh, is expected at Kalbut by 20-Dec.

Africa

After her USGC to S. America voyage, Bw Trade will now cross the Atlantic ocean to load a cargo out of Soyo, ETA 26-Dec.

Gyxis’ Pyxis Alfa is heading to load a cargo at Soyo, ETA 18-Dec.

Promise is heading to load a cargo at Biko, ETA 24-Dec.

Hellas Hercules is crossing the Strait of Malacca and is signalling for Escravos, ETA 8-Jan.

Interesting STS

Shell’s Oriental King, ex-Nederland, is heading to discharge part of her cargo via STS with Shell’s Lubara at Male Anchorage on Dec-16.

Ming De is heading to discharge part of her cargo via STS with Ming Zhu at Sriracha, Thailand on 15-Dec.

Newbuilds

The Navigator Prominence (37,000cbm FR), a newbuild that speculatively ballasted to the West, has been fixed to Geogas ex NWE.

StealthGas’ two newbuilds, the Eco Arctic and Eco Ice were both fixed to Vitol for 2 years.

 

Grangemouth exports receive a second hit 

INEOS has declared the first force majeure on the North Seas’ Forties Pipeline (also known as FPS) in decades, following the discovery of a widening hairline fracture along a portion of the pipe near Aberdeen. The FPS pipeline, which connects 80 fields in the N. Sea and has a capacity of 450 kbpd, is expected to be down for at least two weeks. Approximately 44% of total UK NGL production originates from five terminals (Flotta, Forties, Nigg, Norpipe and Sullom Vo), implying a significant reduction in their associated LPG production.

Looking at the Grangemouth installation, LPG exports decreased significantly starting from June. August is typically a month for North Sea maintenance; however this year the terminal has suffered from an extended period of field maintenance that ended in mid-November, pushing back several liftings. The UK Forties oil pipeline came as a second hit to the terminal, adding additional delays to liftings.

 

European destinations

Grangemouth is a major supplier of Northwest Europe butane market. Kpler data reveal that Nederlands is the largest European purchaser, receiving 38% of Grangemouth’s total LPG volume, or 71 Kt, for 2017.
The UK LPG production limit will likely force European buyers to seek US waterborne LPG cargoes to meet the inflated winter heating demand.
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