Kpler EU Gas (Arctic Princess expected to discharge at Klaipeda ETA 22-July)

Originally Released on 20 July 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

North West Europe: Lineup and Inventories

Spain: Lineup and Inventories

Forecasted Vessels

South Hook:
The terminal is still expecting the following vessels to arrive in the next few days:
Grain:
Iberdola’s Arctic Discoverer will load at Snohvit on 22-July and is expected to deliver a cargo to Grain on 2-August.
Gate:

Shell’s Maran Gas Mystras is now reloading at Gate. Another reload is potentially expected on 28-July onboard Woodside Rees Withers based on her AIS signal – the vessel is currently ballasting towards the terminal.

Qatargas’ Al Gharrafa lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 5-July and is delivering to Gate on 27-July.

Zeebrugge:

Rasgas’ Al Khuwair loaded at Ras Laffan on 12-July and is now headed towards the terminal, ETA 31-July according to the Port Authorities.
Toscana:
Rasgas’ Milaha Qatar is delivering her tender cargo from Ras Laffan on 22-July.
Montoir:

Engie’s Grace Cosmos re-exported a cargo on 24-June and is expected to discharge at Qidong on 25-July.

Currently, three vessels are expected to discharge at the terminal in the next few weeks:

Klaipeda:
Statoil’s Arctic Princess loaded at Snohvit on 12-July and is delivering a cargo on 22-July.
Swinoujscie:
Kpler analysts expect Al Hamla to deliver her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo on 3-August.
Sines:
LNG Lagos Ii is now discharging her Bonny-sourced cargo at the terminal
Rovigo:

To Keep on Your Radar

Rasgas’ Umm Bab loaded at Ras Laffan on 13-July and is currently crossing the Red Sea with no clear destination.

Trafigura’s Energy Atlantic lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 13-July and is now signalling for the Suez Canal.

LNG Data Analysis

Ras Laffan Cargo Liftings Weekly

This week the majority of the vessels headed towards Far East and the Middle East.
European Stocks and Send-outsEuropean Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).

At South Hook, we observed a stable average send-out level of 179.44 GWh/d this week.

European Re-exports

The trend of European re-exports has been declining over the past year:

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Kpler LNG (European Re-exports)

Originally Released on 20 July 2017

Main Highlights

Peru LNG still remains inactive, with GaleaGemmata and Scf Mitre ballasting along the coast. Last loading at the terminal took place onboard Maran Gas Efessos on 2-July.

Sonatrach’s Ougarta loaded at Bethioua and is now headed towards MAAGP, ETA 28-July. This is the first delivery from Algeria to Kuwait.

Newbuild Chevron’s Asia Venture is now ballasting towards Darwin to load her maiden cargo, ETA 28-July.

Christophe De Margerie is currently docked at Zeebrugge for gas up and cool down operations.

The name of the vessel Hanjin Ras Laffan (IMO 9176008) was changed to HL Ras Laffan.

Interesting Moves

Iberdola’s Arctic Discoverer will load at Snohvit on 22-July and is expected to deliver a cargo to Grain on 2-August.

Rasgas’ Milaha Qatar is delivering her tender cargo from Ras Laffan to Toscana on 22-July.

Rasgas’ Al Khuwair loaded at Ras Laffan on 12-July and is now headed towards Zeebrugge, ETA 31-July.

Cheniere’s Oak Spirit is about to deliver a tender cargo from Sabine Pass to CFE at Altamira, ETA 20-July.

Kogas’ K.Jasmine loaded at Sabine Pass on 12-July and is signalling for Tongyeong, ETA 20-August. The vessel took an unusual route and is now passing by French Guiana.

Petrobras’ Esshu Maru will discharge her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo at Quintero on 9-August. The cargo was on water since 4-June.

Shell’s Gaslog Geneva loaded at Idku on 15-July and is now signalling for Atlantic, ETA 25-July.

Reloads of the Week 

Vitol’s Maran Gas Mystras is now reloading at Gate. Another reload is potentially expected on 28-July onboard Woodside Rees Withers based on her AIS signal – the vessel is currently ballasting towards the Falmouth, UK.

Engie’s Grace Cosmos re-exported a cargo on 24-June and is expected to discharge at Qidong on 25-July.

Shell’s Methane Spirit reloaded at SLNG on 19-July and is now floating offshore of the terminal with no clear destination.

Monthly European Re-Exports

The trend of European re-exports has been declining over the past year:

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Kpler LPG (First voyage of Crystal River)

Originally Released on 20 July 2017
Vessels

Americas

P66’s Clipper Freeport completed her first voyage by discharging fully via STS with Morston at Balboa Anchorage, ex-Freeport. She is now heading back to reload at Freeport, ETA 22-Jul. Morston proceeded to complete her load via another STS with Clipper Star and is currently docked at Chorrillo, discharging her 45 Kt propane cargo.
Asia
Crystal River has started her first voyage by signalling for SGP Area, ETA 1-Aug. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed. K-Line’s VLGC is the 24th VLGC to join Astomos’ time charter fleet.
After two partial discharges at Male and Nipah Anchorage with Shell’s Lubara and Captain Markos NI respectively, Shell’s Cougar is currently heading to complete her discharge at Calaca, ETA 23-Jul.
Shell’s Shergar is heading to Male Anchorage after two partial discharges at Nipah Anchorage with Epic St. Martin and Captain Markos NI.
Legend Prestige completed her loading at NWS and is currently heading to Pyeong Taek for discharge, ETA 29-Jul.
Energy Orpheus is signalling for NWS after completing her discharge in Japan. She is expected there by 2-Aug.
Europe/Mediterranean
Sunoco’s Corvette is signalling for Terneuzen, ex-Marcus Hook, ETA 30-Jul.

Africa

The second cargo in 2017 out of Kwinana has been picked by Navigator Centauri. She is expected to discharge via STS at Beira, ETA 27-Jul.

Vitol’s Clipper Odin is expected to dock at Saldanha today, ex-Bioko.

Epic Bali is currently discharging at Dakar after reloading via STS with Geogas’ Surville at Dakar Anchorage.

Providence is signalling for Bioko, ETA 11-Aug. It is also worth mentioning Bw Trader who is expected to load at Escravos under Petredec, ETA 3-Aug.

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Kpler US Gas (Diverted Maran Gas Sparta is discharging at Manzanillo)

Originally released on 19 July 2017

US MARKET

Sabine Pass Inventories

We observed a stable average send-in level of 2.11 Bcf/d this week.

Sabine Pass: Lineup 

Currently, 13 vessels are expected to arrive in the next few weeks. Also, Shell’s Scf Melampus and Cheniere’s Maria Energy are currently ballasting in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Eligible Vessels for Sabine Pass 

There are several ballast vessels heading toward the Americas with no clear destination:

Main Highlights

Diverted Shell’s Maran Gas Sparta loaded at Sabine Pass on 3-July and is now discharging her cargo at Manzanillo.

Cheniere’s Oak Spirit is about to deliver a tender cargo from Sabine Pass to CFE at Altamira, ETA 20-July.

Kogas’ K.Jasmine loaded at Sabine Pass on 12-July and is signalling for Tongyeong, ETA 20-August. The vessel took an unusual route and is now passing by Venezuela.

Shell’s Maran Gas Olympias lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 10-July and is currently headed towards Far East with no clear destination.

Cheniere’s Maran Gas Alexandria loaded at Sabine Pass on 19-July and is signalling for S.Atlantic, ETA 15-August.

Panama Canal Transit 

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Kpler EU Gas (Al Gharrafa heading to Suez with Ras Laffan sourced cargo)

Originally Released on 13 July 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

North West Europe: Lineup and Inventories

 

Spain: Lineup and Inventories

 

Forecasted Vessels

South Hook:

The terminal is still expecting the following vessels to arrive in the next few days:
Grain:
Trafigura’s Adam LNG is still expected to deliver her Bonny-sourced cargo on 14-July according to her AIS.
Gate:
Shell’s Maran Gas Mystras dischraged her Sabine Pass cargo at Grain on 8-July. The vessel is now expected to reload at Gate, ETA 18-July. On 13-July the vessel sent an AIS signal for Dunkerque, but the port has confimed that no cargoes are expected in the next few days.
Montoir:

Engie’s Grace Cosmos re-exported a cargo on 24-June and is now headed towards Far East with no clear destination.

Currently, three vessels are expected to discharge at the terminal in the next few weeks:

Klaipeda:
Cheniere will deliver the first US LNG cargo to Klaipeda from Sabine Pass in the second half of August. Gas Natural will deliver to Klaipeda a second US cargo in mid-September.
Sines:
Qatargas’ Al Kharaitiyat lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 24-June and is now discharging at the plant.
Cartagena:
Gas Natural’s Ribera Del Duero Knutsen lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 9-July and is delivering it to the terminal on 21-July.
Rovigo:

To Keep on Your Radar

Qatargas’ Al Gharrafa lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 5-July and is expected to cross the Suez on 14-July.

Qatargas’ Al Hamla loaded at Ras Laffan on 10-July and is now headed toward the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

 

LNG Data Analysis

Ras Laffan Cargo Liftings Weekly

This week the majority of the vessels headed toward Far East and the Middle East.
European Stocks and Send-outsEuropean Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).

At South Hook, we observed an increased average send-out level from 122.11 GWh/d last week to 190.07 GWh/d this week.

Monthly European Imports by Destination

In June 2017, Spain imported 0.99Mt (versus 0.88Mt in May), UK received 0.35Mt (versus 0.47Mt in May), and France imported 0.61Mt (versus 1.01Mt in May):

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Kpler LNG (Monthly Mexico Imports by Origin)

Originally Released on 13 July 2017

Main Highlights

Peru LNG is currently experiencing delays, with Galea and Scf Mitre ballasting along the coast.

We observe the increasing variety of US LNG destinations, with 3 cargoes delivered to NWE in the past two months. Cheniere will deliver the first US LNG cargo to Klaipeda, Lithuania from Sabine Pass in the second half of August. Gas Natural will deliver to Klaipeda a second US cargo in mid-September.

Diversion Alert: Shell’s Maran Gas Sparta loaded at Sabine Pass on 3-July and was making her voyage toward Europe. She changed her route on 7-July and just crossed the Panama Canal with no clear destination:

Interesting Moves 

Trafigura’s Golar Maria loaded a tender cargo at Das Island and is now headed towards the Red Sea with no clear destination.

Diverted Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Brussels is now headed with her Idku-sourced cargo towards Hazira, ETA 18-July.

Shell’s Maran Gas Mystras discharged her Sabine Pass cargo at Grain on 8-July. The vessel is now expected to reload at Gate, ETA 18-July. On 13-July the vessel sent an AIS signal for Dunkerque, but the port has confirmed that no cargoes are expected in the next few days.

Gas Natural’s Ribera Del Duero Knutsen lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 9-July and is delivering it to Cartagena, Spain on 21-July.

Shell’s Scf Melampus loaded a tender cargo at Atlantic LNG on 2-July and is delivering it to CFE at Altamira on 13-July.

Sonangol Benguela is delivering her tender cargo from Soyo to Hazira on 14-July.

Qatargas’ Al Hamla loaded at Ras Laffan on 10-July and Kpler analysts expect her to discharge at Swinoujscie, ETA 3-August.

Petrobras’ Esshu Maru is currently floating south along the coast of Brazil with her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo at 10.3 Kn. Her destination is not yet clear.

Newbuild Cesi Beihai delivered her maiden cargo from APLNG to Beihai on 9-July. Another newbuild vessel, Chevron’s Asia Venture is now ballasting towards the SGP area.

Tender Deliveries to Argentina

Currently, Escobar and Bahia Blanca expect the following vessels to arrive in the next few weeks:

Monthly Mexico Imports by Origin

In June 2017, we observed the highest imports to Mexico for the last two years (0.64 Mt), with United States delivering 0.46Mt. Since September 2016 (the first delivery from Sabine Pass to Mexico) US LNG imports have significantly increased:

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Kpler OIL (EIA Weekly Export numbers comparison)

Originally Released on 13 July 2017
EIA Weekly Export Accuracy
On the August 31st 2016, the EIA changed its methodology to estimate weekly crude oil exports:
“EIA previously relied on weekly export estimates based on monthly official export data published by the U.S. Census Bureau roughly six weeks following the end of each reporting month” – EIA website
The agency is now using U.S. Customs and Border Protection export values obtained on a weekly basis. U.S. players have no obligation to declare volumes exported to Canada. As a result, the EIA developed a statistical model for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Monthly data is issued from the U.S. Census Bureau who has forged an agreement with Statistics Canada, a national economic data aggregation agency, in order to receive reliable import data.
In order to evaluate the accuracy of the EIA model, Kpler aggregated the weekly export values on a monthly basis and compared them to the EIA monthly values published with a six-week delay. The results show that since the implementation of the statistical model, EIA tends to underestimate the weekly export volumes.On average, EIA weekly export levels are underestimated by 113 kbd. A delta of 268 was realized in April, as shown in the figures below:
EIA month from weekly exports vs EIA monthly exports – kbd

Kpler reported 803 kbd of seaborne exports from PADD 3 in April 2017. EIA figures revealed total exports of 1,001 kbd in April among which 775 kbd came out of PADD 3.

Official Trade Figures

Additional official crude oil trade data was released over the last few days. Kpler presented an accuracy rate above 99% for Iraq (Basrah), Chinese and Japanese imports, >97% for U.S. imports and 94% for U.S. exports and CPC exports, as shown below:

Kpler and official data – kbd
*United States imports exclude land-based and seaborne imports from Canada
*United States exports exclude land-based exports
*China imports excludes land-based imports (assumption : 475 kbd imports by pipe from China and Kazakhstan)