Kpler Oil (OPEC Exports – April Preliminary Data)

Originally Released on 27 April 2017

OPEC exports – April preliminary data
April preliminary data for OPEC countries shows that the cartel’s combined exports  might decrease compared to March values and be for the first time below October levels when OPEC members started boosting exports. Below, a summary of our preliminary OPEC exports assessment since January 2016:


**April – 2017 figures are preliminary. Last update: April 27th

Beside a combined exports reduction, if OPEC exports decreased, it is not only a consequence of November agreement. A significant part of these reductions came from countries originally exempted from the production cut agreement:
  • Iran, Libya and Nigeria did not manage to boost exports in the last few months. Preliminary data shows that Iran April exports could reach a 10-month record low.
  • After reaching 660 kbd in December, Libyan exports have decreased consistently and might finish the month below 500 kbd.

Below, a comparison between combined exports coming from countries that agreed to cut production and countries exempted from cuts:

 

US imports – Next weeks outlook

EIA published one of the highest US import numbers for week-ending 04/21. Our data showed that a significant increase of imports coming from Arab Gulf were in part at the origin of such numbers. Crude from 9 different VLCCs reached US ports during that week.

The picture below shows all the ULCCs and VLCCs heading towards US Gulf Coast on April 27th. In the orange box, 9 ULCCs and VLCCs that indicated ETA between May 10th and May 15th. If we take into consideration the time needed to transfer their volumes via ship-to-ship operations, this could result in a situation similar to what happened week-ending 04/21 in week-ending May 19.

Middle East ULCCs and VLCCs heading towards PADD 3 – April 24th
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