Kpler OIL (OPEC May preliminary data)

Originally Released on 25 May 2017

OPEC preliminary exports — May
As mentioned in previous reports, OPEC April exports fell below October levels for the first time in 2017. Much of this decline was due to falling exports from OPEC member nations exempted from the production cut. May exports are expected to remain below October exports despite a slight month-over-month increase, according to Kpler preliminary data. OPEC total exports are expected to end May at 24.3 mmbpd according to the loading rate from May 1st to present and  24.7 mmbpd according to our predictive model based on AIS, as shown in the 2 charts below:
OPEC exports – May actual exports in 24-day kbd

OPEC exports – May with scheduled cargos (AIS*)

*Our AIS model takes into account congestion time and berthing time for each port
  • Loading rate in Angola within the first 24 days of May was significantly below previous months. The drop is driven by less loadings of Clov, Girassol and Dalia grades.
  • El-Sharara and El-Feel fields resumed operation resulting in a significant increase in Zawia and Mellitah terminals exports. Libyan exports are expected to increase for the first time in 2017.
  • With Bonga field loadings back to normal and the Forcados field resuming operations, Nigerian exports are also expected to increase in May.
*Actual exported volumes in 24-day kbd