Kpler OIL (EIA Weekly Export numbers comparison)

Originally Released on 13 July 2017
EIA Weekly Export Accuracy
On the August 31st 2016, the EIA changed its methodology to estimate weekly crude oil exports:
“EIA previously relied on weekly export estimates based on monthly official export data published by the U.S. Census Bureau roughly six weeks following the end of each reporting month” – EIA website
The agency is now using U.S. Customs and Border Protection export values obtained on a weekly basis. U.S. players have no obligation to declare volumes exported to Canada. As a result, the EIA developed a statistical model for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Monthly data is issued from the U.S. Census Bureau who has forged an agreement with Statistics Canada, a national economic data aggregation agency, in order to receive reliable import data.
In order to evaluate the accuracy of the EIA model, Kpler aggregated the weekly export values on a monthly basis and compared them to the EIA monthly values published with a six-week delay. The results show that since the implementation of the statistical model, EIA tends to underestimate the weekly export volumes.On average, EIA weekly export levels are underestimated by 113 kbd. A delta of 268 was realized in April, as shown in the figures below:
EIA month from weekly exports vs EIA monthly exports – kbd

Kpler reported 803 kbd of seaborne exports from PADD 3 in April 2017. EIA figures revealed total exports of 1,001 kbd in April among which 775 kbd came out of PADD 3.

Official Trade Figures

Additional official crude oil trade data was released over the last few days. Kpler presented an accuracy rate above 99% for Iraq (Basrah), Chinese and Japanese imports, >97% for U.S. imports and 94% for U.S. exports and CPC exports, as shown below:

Kpler and official data – kbd
*United States imports exclude land-based and seaborne imports from Canada
*United States exports exclude land-based exports
*China imports excludes land-based imports (assumption : 475 kbd imports by pipe from China and Kazakhstan)