Kpler LPG (Indonesian Imports Focus)

Originally Released on 12 October 2017

Vessels

Americas

 

This week, we are witnessing 2 more VLGC’s heading to FE via Cape of Good Hope:

  • Shell’s Shergar, ex-Netherland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 9-Nov.
  • Shell’s Yuhsan, ex-Netherland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 10-Nov.

These vessels are added to a list of 9 VLGC’s that are heading to FE, ex-USGC through the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Panama Canal (see first image):

Above: vessels heading to FE through COGH, instead of Panama Canal

On the other hand, 7 VLGC’s are expected to pass the Cape of Good Hope on their way to USGC for load (see following image):

Above: vessels heading to USGC through COGH, instead of Panama Canal

Shell’s Hellas Sparta, ex- Nederland, is heading to discharge at Teluk Semangka, ETA 21-Oct.

Shell’s Aisling is currently loading her first cargo from Nederland for her virgin voyage.

BP’s British Councillor, ex-Enterprise, is heading to discharge at Terneuzen, ETA 21-Oct.

Petredec’s Pazifik to discharge at Mohammedia, ex-Cheesapeake, ETA 16-Oct.

P66’s Clipper Vanguard completed her maiden load ex-Freeport, currently heading at Panama Canal, ETA 11-Oct. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed.

BW Pine is fixed by Vitol for a voyage to FE. She is expected to load at USG by the 22 of October.

 

Africa

Geogas’ Pointis completed her load at Sanha and is currently at COGH. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed.

ExxonMobil’s Copernicus loaded at Oso and is signaling for SGP Area, ETA 21-Oct.

Total’s Hellas Gladiator is expected to load at Bonny Island, ETA 21-Oct.

Asia

Petredec’s Pacific Shanghai, ex-Iran, is heading to discharge at Kalbut, Indonesia, ETA 15-Oct.

Shell’s Secreto is signalling for Sriracha, Thailand, ETA 17-Oct. She is expected to discharge part of her cargo via STS with Ming Zhu.

Statoil’s Sunstar, ex-Freeport, discharged her cargo at Kalbut. This is the first LPG cargo out of US to Indonesia since May 2017 and the first ever from Freeport to Indonesia.

Australia

Astomos’ Gas Capricorn completed her load at Bayu Undan FPSO and is signaling for Dongguan China, ETA 16-Oct.

Interesting STS

Shell’s Sinndar is signalling for Nederlands, ETA 23-Oct (current itinerary COGH). During her previous voyage, she discharged her cargo via STS at Male Anchorage with Shell’s Lubara and then at Male Anchorage with Shell’s Captain Markos Nl.

Petredec’s Clipper Victory discharged the rest of her cargo via STS again with Petredec’s Morston and is now heading to Nederland, ETA 16-Oct. The latter vessel is expected to discharge again at Chorillo.

Shell’s Shaamit, ex-Nederland, is currently discharging her cargo via STS with Shell’s Lubara at Male Anchorage. The latter has been acting as a Floating Storage at Male Anchorage since March, 2017.

 

Indonesia Imports on the rise

While Indonesia remains a net energy exporter, its imports of Oil and products have been rapidly increasing in recent years. The decision of rejoining OPEC in January 2016 (while still a net importer of oil and products) and the quick suspension of its membership at the 171st Meeting of the OPEC Conference on November of the same years, proved the country’s difficulty to meet local demand with its own production.
Focusing on the LPG market, Kpler data indicates that Indonesia’s imports are increasing since 2015. Looking at YTD evolution the 2017 September figures reached 3,636 kt, a 22% increase from the same period in 2016. This rise is linked to declining domestic LPG supply due to the decline of domestic oil production.

 

Efforts of diversification

According to the local sources, Indonesia will become even more dependent on LPG imports from 2017 onwards, expecting imported LPG to reach 70 percent of total LPG consumption this year.
To satisfy its local demand, Indonesia mostly imports LPG from Middle East countries, but it plans to diversify the import mix over the next years.
Looking at Kpler data for Indonesia LPG imports by origin countries, in 2016 Indonesia was mainly importing from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. However, mid-2016 signified a change on the country’s strategy by receiving its first LPG cargo from United States on May, 28 (Petredec’s Motivator, ex-Entreprise), followed by a first LPG shipment from Iran on October, 13 (Pertamina’s Pertamina Gas 2, ex-Asaluyeh).
The latter shipment also indicates Iran’s desire to reach new markets, following the official lift of its sanction on June, 2016. Looking at 2017, Indonesia is seeking to reduce its dependency on traditional ME suppliers by diversifying its sources from the US (regular LPG supplier in 2017), receiving cargoes from Australia, WAF and even from Europe with a cargo coming out of Norway in February (Statoil’s Bw Freyja, ex-Kaarstoe).

New partnerships with the US and Iran

At the beginning of 2017, the Indonesian government agreed to purchase more than 500,000 tonnes of LPG from Iran in 2017. Sep-2017 Kpler figures show that 363 kt of LPG have been shipped from Iran to Indonesia, 72% of the agreed amount. Kpler LPG analysts expect at least two more LPG shipments from Iran until the end of the year, bringing the total 2017 figure to more than 450kt, which aligns with the aforementioned agreement.
Lastly, Indonesia is also showing its commitment to country portfolio diversification by receiving the first ever cargo from US Freeport (Statoil’s Sunstar, ex-Freeport, discharged her cargo at Kalbut).

    
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