Kpler OIL (Venezuelan Loading Delays)

Originally Released on 12 October 2017

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Remains High

Total oil-on-water in PADD 3 remains high at 39.4 million barrels – up 35% since last Friday. Nearly 100% of Gulf of Mexico crude production was taken offline as a result of Hurricane Nate over the weekend. Floating storage as a percentage of oil-on-water continues to decline following the 30% plus levels that became the norm for several weeks following Hurricane Harvey in late-August and early-September.

Venezuelan Loading Delays

Loading rates at Venezuela’s Jose and Puerto La Cruz ports remains slow – there are currently several vessels waiting to load (or arriving today to load):

  1. Rio Caroni: arrived empty on September 9th after discharging approximately 1 million barrels of crude at Bullenbay on September 1st.
  2. Paramount Halifax: arrived empty on October 3rd after discharging approximately 525,000 barrels of crude in PADD 1 refineries in late September.
  3. Maran Cleo: arrived empty on September 26th after discharging a combined 2 million barrels of crude in China in mid-July.
  4. Rio Apure: arrived empty on September 24th after discharging approximately 1 million barrels of crude at Bullenbay on September 20th.
  5. Ns Lotus: arrived empty on October 9th after discharging approximately 555,000 barrels of crude at Bayway on October 2nd.
  6. Dht Utik: slated to arrive today, she discharged approximately 2 million barrels of crude in South Korea in late June.
  7. Boyaca: slated to arrive today, she discharged approximately 2 million barrels of crude in China in mid-August.

Global Floating Storage Slightly Higher Week-over-Week

Following a steady decline in global floating storage volume through much of August and early September, it appears that total volume has increased slightly to 43.5 million barrels over the past week. This is still well below the high of 87.6 million barrels realized on July 18th. Within this analysis, floating storage is assumed as crude loaded on vessels moving at less than 1 knot for at least the past 10-days.

South Korean Imports Up Significantly Week-over-Week

Over the past four weeks, imports to South Korea have consistently risen. It appears that the trend will remain intact for the current week. KPLER predictive modeling holds that for the week of 10/9 – 10/16, imports will equal 4,273 kbd –  a 27% increase week-over-week.The middle-east serves as the most important origin location for South Korean imports, but Russia and the Americas (Mexico and the United States) have supplied the Asian nation with crude oil as well over the past month. Smaller crude trading partners, which fall in the “Other” category, include Australia, Indonesia and Brunnei among others.

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