Originally Released on 2 November 2017
OPEC October Exports Remain Nearly Flat
Month-over-month seaborne crude exports for the OPEC organization fell by 203 kbd – a 0.8% decrease. Saudi realized the largest month-over-month gain, adding 368 kbd in seaborne exports for October while Nigeria realized the largest decline at 352 kbd.
For EIA week-ending 10/20, U.S. seaborne import flows surpassed 5 million bpd for the first time in more than 2-months. Daily seaborne oil import flows have since indicated a slightly downward trend. Between 10/20 and 10/30, the 5-day moving average fell by 2,759 kbd – a 49% decrease. The moving average has recovered slightly over the past 2 days.
PADD 3 congestion remains an ongoing problem. Floating storage, which in this case assumes crude volumes on vessels that have moved at less than 1 knot for at least the past 10-days, spiked following the 5 million bpd import level for EIA week-ending 10/20. This also coincides with a 4-week period that has averaged 1.7 million bpd in exports leaving PADD 3. Daily floating storage has managed to fall over the past 3-days back to levels seen earlier in October.
World oil-on-water has consistently trended higher since mid-October. Between 10/13 and 11/2, oil-on-water increased by 118 kbd – a 13% increase in just 20 days.
For the second week in a row, daily loadings at Kirkuk Terminal remain weak. Since 10/21, the 5-day moving average has fluctuated within a range between 90 kbd and 341 kbd. This is well below the bounded loading range in early October, before fighting broke out in northern Iraq between Baghdad and the Kurdish Peshmerga interrupting oil production operations in the Kirkuk region.