Kpler LPG (Increasing Japan LPG Imports)

Originally Released on 9 November 2017

Vessels
Americas
This week, we are witnessing 3 VLGCs heading to FE via Cape of Good Hope:
  • Geogas’ Jia Yuan, ex-Marcus Hook, signalling for Chita, ETA 12-Dec.
  • Petredec’s Yamabuki , ex-Nederland, signalling for Durban, ETA 24-Nov.
  • Shell’s Pacific Hong Kong, ex-Nederland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 8-Dec.
Above: vessels heading to FE through COGH, instead of Panama Canal
Nadeshiko Gas has finally finished her load, ex- Ferndale, and is now signalling for South Korea, ETA 16-Nov.
Trafigura’s Waregem, ex-Pajaritos, is heading to discharge at Mohammedia, ETA 9-Nov.
Itochu’s Gas Zenith, ex-Enterprise, is crossing the Panama Canal to deliver her maiden cargo to FE. She is expected at FE on 23-Dec.
Petredec’s Bw Malacca, ex-Jose and Enterprise is currently discharging part of her cargo at Petredec Mauritius terminal.

Middle East

SK Gas’ G. Forever, ex-Yanbu, is heading to discharge at Kalbut, ETA 14-Nov.
TSW’s Gas Taurus, ex-Al Ruwais, is expected to discharge her cargo at Indonesia, ETA 17-Nov.
Europe
The VLGC Pacific Weihai arrived at Hammerfest, ETA 7-Nov.
Shell’s Sansovino, ex Kaarsto, completed a partial discharge in Aygaz Izmit and is now heading to discharge the rest of her cargo at Dortyol, ETA 7-Nov.

 

Australia

BP’s Clermont, ex-NWS, is heading to discharge her cargo at Taiwan, ETA 14-Nov.

Africa

Pacific Binzhou was fixed by BP to deliver a cargo out of Soyo. She is expected to load at Soyo on 21-Nov.

Cresques was fixed by Geogas to deliver a cargo out of Bonny, loading ETA 26-Nov.

Aquamarine Progress was fixed by Sahara to deliver a cargo out of Escravos, loading ETA 21-Nov.

Interesting STS

Geogas’ Clipper Moon, ex-Enterprise, is expected to discharge her cargo again via STS with Bw Gemini at Ocoa Bay Anchorage. ETA 10-Nov.

Shell’s Sinndar, ex-Nederland, is signalling for Male anchorage, ETA 28-Nov. She is expected to discharge part of her cargo again via STS with Lubara.

Newbuilds

Newbuild Mont Fort left the Korean Shipyard and is now heading to Panama Canal. She is relet to Gunvor for a 10 year-TC.

Diversion Alerts

Originally signalling for Panama Canal, Flopec’s Clipper Victory changed her destination and is now heading to Terneuzen, ETA 15-Nov.

Originally signalling for Fujairah, BW’s Bw Loyalty updated her AIS signal and is now heading to Nederland US, ETA 7-Dec.

 

Increase of Japanese LPG imports
In September, strong global Oil prices boosted the LPG prices and the naphtha crack spread had gradually widened, therefore making CFR Japan Propane costlier than naphtha. As producers in Europe and Asia tend to switch feedstocks based on cracking margins, Japanese LPG imports experienced a drop of 40% MoM in September to 451 Kt, the lowest value in 2017, based on Kpler data. This figure proves that LPG continued to yield less favourable cracking economics relative to naphtha.
As winter approaches, the slowdown in September questioned the efficiency of the Asian inventories to meet heating and cooking demand ahead. However, the strong figure of 986 Kt in October is expected to eliminate much of the shortfall in Japan and Asian Inventories.

Kpler data reveal that the total demand in Far East steadily increased from August onward. In October, demand was higher by 425 Kt m/m, at 3885 Kt, suggesting a trend towards stronger demand relative to the first half of 2017.
Looking at the monthly imports of the 3 top Far East Importers, China helped sustaining the FE imports to the current levels as Japanese and S.Korean demand dropped.

 


 

Forward looking, Indonesia and Iran LPG talks for 2018

Indonesia’s Pertamina will start official discussions with NIOC this week for the renewal of their term LPG import contract for 2018 supplies. The original contract consisted of a 600,000 mt of LPG to be delivered over 2016-2017 in 14 cargoes.

Kpler data reveal that since the delivery of the first 44,000 mt evenly split propane/butane parcel in Oct-2016, there have been 12 cargo shipments. The current level of Iranian exports to Indonesia are approximately 550,000 mt, a figure close to the original agreement. (November import numbers are subject to change as Kpler is closely monitoring the daily market).Separator LineSeparator Line