Kpler OIL (Declining Nigerian Exports)

 

Originally Released on 16 November 2017

U.S. Export Volumes Lower in November

For week-ending 11/10, U.S. seaborne exports finished below 1 million barrels. This follows an October that averaged more than 1,600 kbd leaving U.S. ports. Between 10/14 and 10/31 alone, October realized 12 days with loading values above 1,300 kbd. Over the first 10-days of November, there have only been 3 such days.

U.S. Import Volumes Trend Higher

While exports leaving the United States have fallen, U.S. imports have continued to accelerate over the past several weeks. Between weeks-ending 10/27 and 11/10, U.S. import volumes have increased by 495 kbd. This followed week-ending 10/20, the first to realize an import level above 5 million bpd since Hurricane Harvey in late-August.

Nigerian Exports Lower This Week

Nigerian daily export loadings were feeble following a week of strong export volumes. The 3-day moving average spiked in early November, largely resulting from a load of 6,950 kbd that took place on 11/6. Loadings have since tapered off – between 11/8 and 11/15, the 3-day moving average has declined by 3,095 kbd.

Strait of Malacca Oil-on-Water Increases

Oil-on-water on the Strait of Malacca continued to trend higher this week. Between 10/30 and 11/16, the 5-day moving average for oil-on-water increased by 12.4 million barrels. In addition, floating storage (which is also counted as oil-on-water) increased by 83% to 10.5 million barrels. It should be noted that this increase largely came early in November and has since declined marginally. This analysis assumes floating storage as crude on vessels moving at less than 1 knot for at least the past 12 days.

Loadings at Kirkuk Terminal Up Slightly

Oil flowing out of Kirkuk Terminal picked up slightly over the past seven days. Between 11/9 and 11/16, export loadings totaled 1,637 kbd. This was 920 kbd higher than in the previous seven days. There still remain large gaps between loadings and total volume being loaded is still well below historical averages. Terminal disruptions began in mid-October following fighting between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq.

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