Kpler OIL (Increasing Exports from Venezuela)

Originally Released on 14 December 2017

Canadian Seaborne Exports Spike

Over the past several days, Canadian seaborne oil export loadings have shown strength. Between 12/8 and 12/13, the 7-day moving average increased 455 kbd. A sizable 768 kbd oil shipment was loaded for Italy on 12/9, the first flow of its kind since late-October.

South Korean Imports Rebound

Following a steady rise and fall in daily import volumes into South Korea in late-November, over the past week import volumes have once again rebounded. Between 12/8 and 12/13, the 7-day moving average increased 646 kbd. Two large shipments from Saudi Arabia (3,117 kbd) and Kuwait (2,179 kbd) on 12/6 helped to drive import levels higher for the week.

U.S. Exports Struggle to Find Direction

U.S. seaborne oil exports have struggled to find direction over the past month. Week-ending 12/8 finished at 1,054 kbd in oil shipped abroad – a 29% decrease week-over-week. This is a continuation of the zig-zag pattern first established in mid-November.

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Increases

December has been marked by a consistent increase in PADD 3 oil-on-water volumes. Between 12/3 and 12/14, oil-on-water has increased 8.43 million barrels. It appears that most of this volume is readily moving in and out of the region – floating storage has remained at or below 20% of total oil-on-water volume. Floating storage is assumed as crude on vessels that have moved at less than one knot for at least the past 10-days.

Venezuelan Exports Trend Higher

Following a prolonged period of export declines, Venezuela has managed to grow oil shipments leaving the nation-state since late-October. Between weeks-starting 10/30 and  12/4, crude leaving Venezuelan shores increased by 414 kbd – a 35% change.

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Kpler LNG (Cool Runner diversion)

Originally Released on 14 December 2017

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

This week, the U.K. was experiencing shortages in the gas supply system. With several disruptions, mainly caused by outages in the North Sea and the Baumgarten explosion in Austria, both Dragon and Grain increased send-out.
Italy was also heavily impacted by the Baumgarten explosion, which had interrupted the pipeline flow of Russian gas into the Italian grid. Italy’s industry minister declared a state of emergency on 12-December. The pipeline is fixed now and physical flows are stabilized.

At Rovigo, 4 vessels are expected to arrive in the next few days. One or more vessels could be expected for potential diversions for Italy in December:

RasGas’ Al Marrouna, ETA 14-December
RasGas’ Al Daayen, ETA 19-December
RasGas’ Lusail, ETA 21-December
RasGas’ Simaisma, ETA 27-December

Shell’s Maran Gas Delphi is expected to deliver her cool-down cargo from Bonny to Dominion’s Cove Point on 14-December, indicating that the facility will soon ship its first cargo.
This new U.S.-based liquefaction plant is set to produce 5.25 mtpa of LNG. Minimum amount of gas was inserted so far, however the tanks are now ready to accommodate the cool-down cargo.

Yamal LNG’s Christophe De Margerie loaded the first Yamal’s cargo and is now expected to deliver to Grain, ETA 28-December. It remains unclear if Petronas will reload LNG for Asia delivery as it was planned initially, or if the cargo will supply the local gas market.
Yamal LNG’s Boris Vilkitsky has completed her load on 9-December and is now floating outside Yamal port limits.

 

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

PetroChina’s Seri Bakti reloaded a cargo at SLNG on 7-December and is currently signalling for Gaolan, ETA 18-December.

Engie’s Wilforce is about to reload at Montoir, ETA 14-December.

Uniper’s Pskov is now ballasting towards Gate to reload, ETA 16-December.

Shizuoka Gas reloaded LNG aboard CNOOC’s Neo Energy on 29-November. The cargo was delivered to Tianjin on 12-December.

Petrobras’ Golar Winter reloaded at Pecem on 5-December and is now discharging a cargo at Bahia.

Shell’s Hispania Spirit reloaded at Gate on 28-November and delivered her cargo to Aqaba on 11-December.

 

INTERESTING MOVES

Diversion Alert: Petrobras’s Cool Runner was headed towards Gibraltar with her Atlantic LNG-sourced cargo after floating offshore of Bahia since 19-November. The vessel changed her route on 13-Dec and is now signalling for Cape Town, ETA 25-December.

Diversion Alert: Shell’s Gaslog Greece loaded at Sabine Pass on 10-November and was expected to deliver to Port Qasim. She was floating outside the port for 3 days and has now diverted to the Far East. Gasport LNG recently faced an unplanned outage.

Diversion Alert: Esshu Maru loaded at Sabine Pass on 6-December and was initially signalling for Pecem, ETA 22-December. Now the vessel is headed towards the Far East.

LNG Rivers loaded at Bonny on 9-December and was floating offshore of Republic of the Congo until 13-December. Now the vessel is headed towards Montoir at 18.9 Kn.

Chevron’s Asia Venture loaded at Gorgon on 27-November and was floating for 10 days at Dampier. The vessel is currently making her laden voyage towards Tobata, ETA 21-December.

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Kpler LPG (Hit to Grangemouth LPG Exports)

 

Originally Released on 14 December 2017
Vessels
Americas

This week we are not witnessing any vessel heading to FE via the Cape of Good Hope.

After 6 months of STS between Panama and Chorillo, Petredec’s Morston has finally crossed the Panama Canal and is signalling for Houston, ETA 19-Dec.

The following Ineos’ Ethane-dedicated vessels are on their to deliver their Ethane cargo to Europe:

RIL’s VLEC Ethane Topaz loaded another ethane cargo at Morgans Point and is heading to India. She is expected at Dahej by 9-Jan.

Europe
Corvette, ex-Enterprise, diverted towards Mohammedia, ETA 22-Dec. She was originally bounded for F.East.
Petredec’s Clipper Victory, ex-Targa, is crossing the Atlantic Ocean and signalling for Suez Canal, ETA 29-Dec.

Asia

– Petredec’s Yamabuki, ex-Nederland, is currently discharging at Teluk Semangka.
With the end of the aforementioned voyage, Indonesia is expected to receive the following last cargoes for 2017:

  • Bw Tokyo, ex-Al Ruwais, is expected at Teluk Semangka by 16-Dec.
  • Shell’s Chaparral, ex-Nederland, is expected at Teluk Semangka by 24-Dec.
  • Shell’s Dorset, ex-Ras Laffan, is expected at Kalbut by 15-Dec.
  • Petredec’s Pacific Shanghai, ex-Asaluyeh, is expected at Kalbut by 20-Dec.

Africa

After her USGC to S. America voyage, Bw Trade will now cross the Atlantic ocean to load a cargo out of Soyo, ETA 26-Dec.

Gyxis’ Pyxis Alfa is heading to load a cargo at Soyo, ETA 18-Dec.

Promise is heading to load a cargo at Biko, ETA 24-Dec.

Hellas Hercules is crossing the Strait of Malacca and is signalling for Escravos, ETA 8-Jan.

Interesting STS

Shell’s Oriental King, ex-Nederland, is heading to discharge part of her cargo via STS with Shell’s Lubara at Male Anchorage on Dec-16.

Ming De is heading to discharge part of her cargo via STS with Ming Zhu at Sriracha, Thailand on 15-Dec.

Newbuilds

The Navigator Prominence (37,000cbm FR), a newbuild that speculatively ballasted to the West, has been fixed to Geogas ex NWE.

StealthGas’ two newbuilds, the Eco Arctic and Eco Ice were both fixed to Vitol for 2 years.

 

Grangemouth exports receive a second hit 

INEOS has declared the first force majeure on the North Seas’ Forties Pipeline (also known as FPS) in decades, following the discovery of a widening hairline fracture along a portion of the pipe near Aberdeen. The FPS pipeline, which connects 80 fields in the N. Sea and has a capacity of 450 kbpd, is expected to be down for at least two weeks. Approximately 44% of total UK NGL production originates from five terminals (Flotta, Forties, Nigg, Norpipe and Sullom Vo), implying a significant reduction in their associated LPG production.

Looking at the Grangemouth installation, LPG exports decreased significantly starting from June. August is typically a month for North Sea maintenance; however this year the terminal has suffered from an extended period of field maintenance that ended in mid-November, pushing back several liftings. The UK Forties oil pipeline came as a second hit to the terminal, adding additional delays to liftings.

 

European destinations

Grangemouth is a major supplier of Northwest Europe butane market. Kpler data reveal that Nederlands is the largest European purchaser, receiving 38% of Grangemouth’s total LPG volume, or 71 Kt, for 2017.
The UK LPG production limit will likely force European buyers to seek US waterborne LPG cargoes to meet the inflated winter heating demand.
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Kpler OIL (Crude OIL Exports from U.S. to Asia increase this week)

 

Originally Released on 7 December 2017

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Remain Restricted

Kirkuk Terminal continues to experience restricted loading volumes following fighting in Northern Iraq between the Kurdish Peshmerga and Baghdad in mid-October. The terminal, which is located in Turkey, receives oil by pipeline from the Kirkuk oil fields under dispute.The 10-day moving average has largely remained at or below the 300 kbd level for the past six-weeks. This remains well under the 500-plus kbd average loading levels before the fighting began. Large gaps between loading days continues to persist. The period between 11/28 and 12/4 was the largest such gap since early November.

Venezuelan Exports Lower in November

Venezuela continues to struggle economically, as financial debt obligations have pulled capital and resources away from the nation’s extensive crude oil production, refining and exportation network. Much of 2017 has realized falling oil exports leaving Venezuela. The month of November realized 1,364 kbd in total seaborne exports down 29% since February.

Malacca Strait Oil-on-Water Trends Higher

Malacca oil-on-water ends the week more than double the level realized on 10/28. Floating storage, which is also counted in the oil-on-water total, has increased nearly 200% in the same period. Within this analysis, crude counted as floating storage is assumed to be on vessels that have moved at less than 1 knot for at least the past 12 days.

Chinese Seaborne Imports Higher in November

China realized a 973 kbd increase in seaborne imports month-over-month ending November. Much of the increase was driven by a near 1,000 kbd rise in imports from Africa and the Middle East. Before November, imports from these two geographical areas had held within a 391 kbd band since the mid-summer.

U.S. Exports to Asia Rise This Week

Week-ending 12/1 realized the largest U.S. export volume (655 kbd) shipped to Asia since late-October. Exports to China and Singapore were particularly strong finishing the week at 286 kbd and 298 kbd respectively.

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Kpler LNG (Cove Point LNG Starting Operations soon)

Originally Released on 7 December 2017

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Trafigura’s Adam LNG reloaded at Gate on 25-October and initially headed towards MAAGP. The vessel delivered to Dahej on 3-December.

Engie’s Wilforce was initially expected by Kpler Analysts to reload at Gate. According to the latest operator and port data, the vessel is now confirmed to reload at Montoir, ETA 15-December. There are no additional December reloads expected in France.

Hispania Spirit reloaded at Gate on 28-November and is now headed towards the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

The Dominion Energy’s new Cove Point is expected to load their first cargo in the near future, as the feed gas supply was introduced on 5-December. Shell will lift the initial cargoes from the liquefaction plant. We now observe several Shell’s vessels ballasting towards S.Atlantic with no clear destination: Maran Gas DelphiMaran Gas PosidoniaMethane Kari Elin and Gaslog Gibraltar.

Puteri Intan Satu delivered a commissioning cargo from Bintulu to the new JAPEX’ terminal Soma on 6-December. It is expected to start commercial operations in March 2018.

Due to unplanned outage at GasPort LNG started on 6-December, diversions and delayed deliveries were expected. Shell’s Gaslog Greece is currently floating offshore of Karachi with her Sabine Pass cargo. According to her route and direction, Shell’s Gaslog Salem closely approached Port Qasim on 7-December, but now she is headed the opposite direction. Gasport LNG is expected to restart operations on 8-December.

Engie’ Gaselys loaded at Sabine Pass on 28-November and will discharge at Andres on 15-December.

Shell’s Lena River lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 1-December and is now signalling for Hazira, ETA 1-January.

Shell’s Gaslog Geneva loaded a cargo at Idku and is making her laden voyage towards Dahej, ETA 15-December.

RasGas’ Al Areesh was initially expected at Rovigo but changed her direction on 4-December. After floating for two days in the Mediterranean, the vessel headed towards the terminal with an updated ETA 8-December.

Pskov is currently ballasting at Gibraltar and will potentially reload in Europe.

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Kpler LPG (Increasing Exports from Freeport)

 

Originally Released on 7 December 2017
Vessels
Americas

This week we are witnessing 1 vessel heading to FE via the Cape of Good Hope:

Clipper Saturn, ex-Enterprise, is heading to Ocoa Bay Anchorage, ETA 7-Dec. She is expected to discharge her cargo via STS with Bw Gemini.

Bahia Blanca’s exporting activity is increasing:

  • Petredec’s Ronald N is heading to discharge her cargo at Chorillo, ETA 12-Dec.
  • Petredec’s Cambridge discharged her Bahia-Blanca cargo via STS at Ecuador and is heading for a second load, ETA 11-Dec.

 

Europe
Statoil’s Captain Nicholas Ml loaded part of her cargo at Hammerfest and is signalling for Kaarstoe to complete her load, ETA 8-Dec.
Geogas’ Seasurfer, ex-Enterprise, is heading to discharge her cargo at Dortyol, ETA 20-Dec.
Winter in Europe has already arrived, with low forecasted temperatures, which are tightening the market with consecutive shipments, especially to Morocco where there are not many alternatives for heating but the LPG. The following vessels are heading to discharge their cargo at Morocco on mid-December:

  • Astomos’ Ns Frontier, ex-Nederland, is signalling for Mohammedia, ETA 14-Dec.
  • Trafigura’s Kortrijk, ex-Targa, is heading to discharge her cargo at Jorf Lasfar, ETA 14-Dec.

 

Asia

Geogas’ Jia Yuan, ex-Marcus Hook, is heading at Botany, ETA 10-Dec.

Astomos’ Nadeshiko Gas updated her AIS signal and is now heading to load at NWS, ETA 11-Dec.

Pertamina’s Bw Brage is signalling to load at Bontang, ETA 8-Dec.

Africa

Lagos was until recently the major terminal for gas of Nigeria. Puma Energy’s Calabar LPG Storage Terminal started its operations late Summer 2017 by receiving its first cargoes by Mayfair and Epic Shikoku. The terminal has a capacity of over 3000 tonnes and is part of Nigeria’s plans to grow its LPG market by 12,000 tonnes in 2017.

Above: Nigerian LPG Import Installations

 

Sonangol’s Bw Empress, a Floating Storage at Luanda Anchorage, reloaded her cargo at Soyo.

Interesting STS

IOC’s Copernicus, performed a STS with Kikyo at Gale Anchorage. Both vessels are heading to discharge their cargoes at East Coast India.

Shell’s vessels Pacific Hong Kong and Lubara performed a STS at Male Anchorage. The latter, which is acting as a breaking bulk at the anchorage, was reloaded and is continuing its operations.

 

November US LPG Exports hit 1 Mbpd 

Total LPG exports out of United States reached 1 million barrels per day in November, a MoM increase of 93 kbd. The 1 Mbpd floor is not new for US as the total exports averaged 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in three more months (Feb, Apr and Sep) this year, according to Kpler data.

 

Freeport boosting the total US exports

The total US LPG exports are being significantly boosted by the cargoes out of Freeport LPG export terminal. Starting from November 2016 (month of the first cargo out of Phillips 66’s terminal), the US exports increased by an average 108 kbd per month of LPG originated from Freeport terminal. In addition, Enterprise is having a key role in total US exports, with a strong monthly average exports of 385 kbd in 2017. During November, Enterprise shipped 409 kbd of LPG, reaching its April export levels.

 

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Kpler LNG (China LNG Imports)

 

Originally Released on 30 November 2017

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Itochu’s Cool Explorer reloaded a cargo at Gwangyang on 27-November and is delivering it to China, ETA 5-December.

Shell’s Hispania Spirit loaded at Atlantic LNG on 13-November and delivered to Grain on 25-November. The vessel arrived to reload at Gate on 28-November.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris reloaded at Fos Cavaou on 26-November and is now making her laden voyage towards Incheon, ETA 22-December.

Wilforce will reload at Gate after she finishes her port call at Zeebrugge, ETA 3-December.

Shell’s Methane Nile Eagle reloaded at Fos Cavaou on 8-November and was floating offshore of Kalamata, Greece until 25-November. The vessel delivered her reloaded cargo back to Fos Cavaou on 29-November and is now headed towards Bonny.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

RasGas’ Al Huwaila loaded at 24-November at Ras Laffan and is expected by Kpler Analysts to discharge at Swinoujscie on 17-December.

Shell’s Maran Gas Efessos is delivering a tender cargo to Altamira, ETA 13-December.

Golar Kelvin delivered a commissioning cargo from Bonny to the new FSRU unit at GasPort LNG on 24-November.

Shell’s Gaslog Geneva loaded at Idku on 27-November and is about to cross the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

Engie’s Gaselys loaded at Sabine Pass on 28-November and is now making her laden voyage towards Andres, ETA 15-December.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Everett lifted a cargo at Atlantic LNG on 8-November and was floating in the Caribbean sea until 25-November. Now the vessel is headed towards Everett, ETA 4-December.

Diversion Alert: LNG Lokoja loaded at Bonny on 7-November and was initially signalling for Port Qasim, ETA 28-November. Now she is signalling for Jebel Ali, ETA 3-December.

Gunvor’s Excalibur is now ballasting towards Atlantic LNG to load a cargo, ETA 13-December.

 

CHINA LNG IMPORTS

China LNG imports have reached a new record in November 2017, with current level exceeding 4.5 Mt:

China Monthly Imports (By Origin Countries)

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