Kpler Oil (European MED refineries slate)

Originally Released on 7 August 2017

European MED refineries slate

European refineries in the Mediterranean Sea have faced a significant shift in their overall crude diet for 2017.
Iran’s return to the global crude market has played a major role in precipitating this change. In one year, processing of Iranian crude in European MED refineries has more than tripled. In June, a record 726 kbd of Iranian crude was processed in the region, averaging 573 kbd over the first half of the year.  This is a stark change from volume levels seen June 2016, in which Iranian crude input amounted to approximately 210 kbd.
WAF grades are also progressively returning to MED slates after lower than average volumes realized in April and May.
Iranian and WAF crude oil grades are increasingly serving as substitutes for CPC and other Middle-Eastern grades, which have shown to be less present in June’s slates.

 

Mediterranean crude slate (%)

Mediterranean crude slate (kbd)


MED European installations included in the volumes

*Sidi Kerir (SUMED) shipments are included in the middle East (ex-Iran) groupblog-orange-lineblog-orange-line

Kpler LNG Interesting Moves (Sabine Pass T4 commissioning soon)

Originally Released on 3 August 2017

Main Highlights

At Sabine Pass, we observed the highest send-in level of 2.57 Bcf/d on 29-July.

Engie’s Christophe De Margerie arrived at Zeebrugge on 19-July for gas up and cool down operations. The vessel then loaded at Snohvit on 28-July and is expected at Boryeong on 16-August.

Seri Bakti loaded at GLNG on 26-July and is now headed towards Subic Bay for a STS operation, ETA 8-August.

PetroChina’s Meridian Spirit loaded at Bethioua on 24-July and delivered a cargo to Ain Sokhna on 3-August.

We observed several newbuild vessels on water this week. Petronas’ Seri Cempaka is currently headed towards Bintulu to load her maiden cargo, ETA 4-August. Total’s Sk Audace is now ballasting towards the South China Sea with no clear destination. Also, Castillo De Merida is now performing sea trials.

Interesting Moves

Uniper’s Woodside Rees Withers re-exported a cargo on 1-August and is delivering to Aqaba according to her AIS, ETA 13-August.

Petronas’ Seri Cenderawasih lifted a cargo at PFLNG 1 on 23-July and is currently headed towards Pyeong Taek, ETA 5-August.

Rasgas’ Wilforce loaded a backhaul cargo at Ras Laffan on 22-July and is now expected to discharge at Rovigo on 6-August.

Jera’ Pacific Notus is now reloading at Gwangyang and will deliver to Futtsu on 8-August.

Nizwa LNG loaded at DSLNG on 25-July and is delivering to Jebel Ali on 15-August. This is the second delivery from the terminal to the Middle East.

Three vessels loaded at Bonny will discharge at Altamira in the next few days: Shell’s Gaslog Glasgow , ETA 6-August, Shell’s Maran Gas Agamemnon., ETA 8-August and LNG River Niger, ETA 20-August. CFE expects to receive four tender cargoes at Altamira in August.

Global LNG Exports

Global export volumes hit record high of 26.3 Mt in July 2017, mostly thanks to Australian projects ramping up (from 4.93 Mt in June 2017 to 5.73 Mt in July 2017).

Top Global Origin July 2017

 

Algeria LNG Exports

We observed a significant increase in Algerian exports to the Middle East since April 2017:
*Middle East: Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Kuwait, India

 

Yearly Algerian Exports to the Middle East 

 

Sines LNG Imports

There have been two consecutive discharges at the terminal: LNG Abuja Ii delivered her Bonny-sourced cargo on 1-August, and Shell’s Valencia Knutsen is now discharging her Sabine Pass cargo at the plant.

RasGas’ Fraiha loaded at Ras Laffan on 18-July and will deliver to Sines on 10-August.

The terminal imported the higher volumes of diversified supply recently, and is now expecting to hit 0.25 Mt in August according to the current data:

Monthly Sines Imports by Origin Installation

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Kpler LPG (Panama Canal crossings)

Orinally Released on 3 August 2017

Vessels

Americas

We are currently witnessing 7 VLGC’s that are heading to FE, ex-USGC through the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Panama Canal. The number of such vessels is expected to keep increasing as a result of market contango, allowing for higher gains due to higher prices in September.

above: vessels heading to FE through SGP Area instead of Panama Canal

This week, another STS occurred at Balboa Anchorage. Ronald N who was supposed to discharge her cargo at Ecuador, ex-Nederland under Petredec, performed a STS with Morston instead at Balboa Anchorage. Morston is currently docked at Chorrillo, discharging her 40 Kt propane cargo.

After loading partially at Marcus Hook, Navigator Aurora completed the rest of her load at Chesapeake. She is currently signalling for Dortyol Port to discharge her 20 Kt cargo (10:10).
Newbuild Anderida has started her first voyage by completing her load at Nederland under Shell. She is expected to discharge her cargo in the FE later in Sept.
Middle East

Newbuild VLGC Pacific Hong Kong is currently loading at Umm Said as her first voyage. She’s relet to Shell until May-2024.

The 2nd VLGC in 2017 has loaded her cargo at Hamriyah. The nominated vessel is Hisui who has been fixed by Naftomar and is currently discharging at Aegis Mumbai.

Europe/Mediterranean

Exiting Suape after spending more than 3 years there as Storage Tank, Bw Liberty is now signalling for Boony Island Port, ETA 12-Aug.

Statoil’s Sansovino is currently passing Gibraltar on her way to discharge at Turkey, ex-Kaarstoe, ETA 10-Aug.

Africa

Geogas’s Bw Gemini is currently docked at Maputo, partially discharging her cargo. She is the first VLGC to discharge at this terminal.

Asia

1 VLGC and 1 LGC are currently signalling for Australia, ex-USGC:

  • Trafigura’s George N to arrive at Brisbane, ex-Targa, ETA 14-Aug. She is expected to replace Bw Njord who’s been acting as Floating Storage at Brisbane Anchorage since 2 months ago.
  • Geogas’ Pointis to discharge at Botany, ex-Freeport, ETA 16-Aug.
Astomos’ Energy Orpheus is docked at Westernport loading her 42 Kt cargo (21:21).
US Exports to FE: Panama Canal VLGC Transits

As mentioned earlier, we are witnessing a decline in the number of VLGC’s delivering their cargoes to the FE via Panama Canal. Kpler data has recorded only 12 VLGC’s passing through the Panama Canal to reach their destination in the FE which is the lowest since Nov-2016. With prices expected to be higher in September, the rise in the number of VLGC’s to deliver via COGH is expected to become higher, affecting even more the number of transits via Panama Canal.

below: number of VLGC cargo deliveries to the FE, ex-USGC via Panama Canal
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Kpler LPG (G. Paragon’s diversion from ME to Houston)

Originally Released on 28 July 2017

Vessels

Americas

After serving as a storage tank at Suape for almost 3 years, Petrobras’ Bw Liberty has left the port today and is now available for charter. BW Lord is currently docked at Suape and is expected to take BW Liberty‘s place at Suape as storage tank.

After doing more than 1,5 years of deliveries to Asia from the Middle East, Petrogas’ Iris Glory is now crossing the Atlantic to load from Ferndale, ETA 2-Aug.

Shell’s Yuhsan is heading to the SGP Area via Cape of Good Hope with Nederland-sourced propane cargo., ETA 21-Aug. She is expected to discharge her cargo in the FE by the end of Aug.

Originally signalling for Ras Tanura, G. Paragon changed her destination and is currently heading to load at Houston, ETA 26-Aug. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed by her AIS signal.

Bw Prince has loaded full LPG cargo in Enterprise and is now heading towards China’s Tianjin.

above: Bw Prince’s route to discharge at Tianjin, ex-Enterprise
Middle East
After discharging U.S.-sourced Propane cargo in 3 portions (at Male Anchorage, Nipah Anchorage and Batangas Port), Cougar is now signalling for Mina al-Ahmadi for reload, ETA 7-Aug.
Europe/Mediterranean

After passing the Cape of Good Hope on the way to load at Escravos under Chevron, Caravelle has stopped for a day at Cape Town Anchorage and is now signalling for Kaarstoe instead under Statoil to be discharged at Chiba Area, according to the market.

Originally signalling for Mohammedia, Trafigura’s Waregem changed her destination and currently discharging her cargo at Le Havre.

After a 47 days ballast voyage from Ulsan Port and crossing both Pacific and Atlantic oceans, Statoil’s Sansovino is currently docked at Kaarstoe, loading her 46 Kt cargo.

After partial discharge at Mohammedia, Shell’s Shahrastani is now heading towards Dortyol Port to discharge the rest of her cargo, ETA 1-Aug.

Asia

Ethane Emerald has switched from carrying Ethane to LPG and for the past 6 weeks has been transporting Propane in between different installations in India. She is currently floating in front of Mumbai Port and is expected to offload its 21 Kt of propane cargo in 3 partial discharges there.

 

US Exports to Europe: Lowest in July since Feb 2016
With only 2 VLGC’s signalling for Europe so far (Bw Orion heading to Terneuzen, ex-Marcus Hook, ETA 4-Aug & Shell’s Shahrastani heading to Dortyol Port, ex-Nederland, ETA 1-Aug), July seems to be one of the least active months for US exports to Europe. The record low exports of 127 Kt since Feb-2016 is almost half the amount of US-Sourced exports to Europe compare to last month.
below: US Exports to Europe by destination countries

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Kpler OIL (World Floating Storage)

Originally Released on 27 July 2017

World floating storage

Floating storage averaged 71.2 million barrels over the last 30 days, down from a peak of 100 million barrels in June. Floating volumes in the Malacca Strait dropped sharply averaging 8.5 million barrels over the last month down from 26 million barrels in June.

Floating volumes on the North Sea remain high, but several ship-to-ship transfer operations and a high amount of vessel movement in the Southwold STS area is an indicator that these barrels are likely to clear towards Asia or feed into local demand.

 

Global floating storage – million barrels
Libya and Nigeria

Libyan export growth continued in July, outpacing export volumes seen in June by a slight margin. The Ras Lanuf, Zueitina and Zawyia terminals are driving this growth.

Nigerian exports are likely to drop for the third consecutive month, largely a result of force majeure declared at Bonny following attacks on the pipeline there. The last vessel to load at the installation was the Eser K on July 17th. Zouzou N. and Evgenia are currently stopped in the West African Gulf. Both signaled a Bonny ETA of July 26th and July 27th respectively. The Nordic Moon and Front Clipper also signaled Bonny as the next destination of loading with August 3rd and August 7th expected arrival dates. Hence, it is likely that operations will shortly resume at the terminal.

Libya and Nigeria exports – kbd

Saudi Arabia exports
Saudi Arabia exports are expected to remain at June levels of 7.2 million barrels per day in July. Saudi Arabia is likely to cut August exports in order to accelerate the global rebalancing effort.
Saudi Arabia exports – kbd
United States exports
U.S. seaborne exports recovered in July following a depressed June total. July will be the second highest export month behind February 2017, when seaborne exports hit 894 kbd. U.S. seaborne imports are expected to total 860 kbd in July, with around half of this volume moving towards Asia.
United States Exports – kbd
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Kpler LNG (Monthly Egypt Imports by Origin)

Originally Released on 27 July 2017

Main Highlights

At Sabine Pass, we observed the highest send-in level of 2.44 Bcf/d on 26-July. The weekly average send-in level is 2.19 Bcf/d.

Petrobras’ Excalibur is discharging now her Atlantic LNG-sourced cargo at Cartagena, Colombia. This is the first delivery there in 2017.

Engie’s Christophe De Margerie arrived at Zeebrugge on 19-July for gas up and cool down operations. Currently the vessel is expected to load a cargo at Snohvit, ETA 27-July.

The name of the vessel Celestine River (IMO 9330745) was changed to Symphonic Breeze.

In June, LNG Bunkering services commenced in the port of Zeebrugge, with the new LNG bunkering vessel, Engie Zeebrugge, delivering the first LNG as marine fuel. At Gate, Shell’s Cardissa has arrived, where she will be loading from the third berth and operate in NWE

Interesting Moves

Rasgas’ Al Khuwair loaded at Ras Laffan on 12-July and is currently expected to deliver partial cargos at Zeebrugge, ETA 31-July, and South Hook, ETA 3 August.

Iberdola’s Arctic Discoverer loaded at Snohvit on 23-July and is expected by the market to deliver to Grain on 3-August. The vessel sent a AIS signal for Sines on 23-July, but the Sines Port Authorities do not expect her to arrive in the next few days.

Cheniere’s Oak Spirit is about to deliver a tender cargo from Sabine Pass to CFE at Altamira, ETA 29-July.

Cheniere’s Valencia Knutsen lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 20-July and is expected at Sines on 1-August.

PetroChina’s Grace Acacia reloaded at SLNG on 22-July and is now making her laden voyage toward Rudong, ETA 30-July.

Rasgas’ Wilforce loaded a backhaul cargo at Ras Laffan on 22-July and is now expected to discharge at Italy.

Brunei LNG’s Trinity Glory loaded at Bontang on 24-July and is currently signalling for India, ETA 9-August.

Two vessels loaded at Bonny and headed towards Americas with no clear destination: Gaslog Glasgow and Maran Gas Agamemnon.

Vitol’s Maran Gas Mystras reloaded at Gate on 23-July and is now crossing the Mediterranean Sea with no clear destination.

PetroChina’s Meridian Spirit loaded at Bethioua on 24-July and is currently passing by Malta. Her destination is not yet clear.

Monthly Egypt Imports by Origin

More specifically, the trend of Qatari exports to Egypt have been declining over the past year. And Nigerian volumes have increased:

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Kpler EU Gas (Christophe De Margerie undergoing cool down operation in Zeebrugge)

Originally Released on 27 July 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

North West Europe: Lineup and Inventories

 

France: Lineup and Inventories

 

Forecasted Vessels

South Hook:

RasGas’ Al Khuwair is expected to deliver partial cargos at Zeebrugge, ETA 31-July, and South Hook, ETA 3 August.

The terminal is also expecting the following vessels to arrive in the next few days:

Grain:
Iberdola’s Arctic Discoverer loaded at Snohvit on 23-July and is expected by the market to deliver to Grain on 3-August.
Gate:

Vitol’s Maran Gas Mystras reloaded at the terminal and is now crossing the Mediterranean Sea with no clear destination.

Qatargas’ Al Gharrafa lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 5-July and is delivering to Gate on 27-July.

 

Zeebrugge:

Total’s Christophe De Margerie arrived at Zeebrugge on 19-July for gas up and cool down operations. Currently the vessel is expected to load a cargo at Snohvit, ETA 27-July.

Rasgas’ Al Khuwair loaded at Ras Laffan on 12-July and is now headed towards the terminal, ETA 31-July.

Klaipeda:
The terminal will receive their first Bonny cargo aboard Trinity Arrow, ETA 30-July.
Swinoujscie:
Port Authorities confirmed Al Hamla delivering her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo on 3-August.
Sines:
LNG Abuja Ii loaded at Bonny on 20-July and will discharge a cargo at Sines on 2-August.
Rovigo:
Al Areesh, ETA 30-July

 

To Keep on Your Radar

Rasgas’ Wilforce loaded a backhaul cargo at Ras Laffan on 22-July and is now signalling for the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

Rasgas’ Fraiha lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 18-July and is now expected to discharge in Europe.

Qatargas’ Mesaimeer is now signalling for the Red Sea with her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo.

Qatargas’ Dukhan loaded at Ras Laffan on 20-July and is currently headed towards the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

LNG Data Analysis

Ras Laffan Cargo Liftings Weekly

This week the majority of the vessels headed towards Far East and India.
European Stocks and Send-outs

European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).

At South Hook, we observed an increased average send-out level from 179.44 GWh/d last week to 246.19 GWh/d this week.
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