Kpler OIL (Philadelphia Loading Delays)

 

Originally Released on 28 September 2017

Exports to Asia from the United States

Asian demand for U.S. crude has been strong over the past week. All 2,065 kbd was shipped to the Singapore Republic aboard the following vessels:

  • Gener8 Hera – loaded approximately 500,000 barrels on September 24th, and 527,000 barrels on September 25th through ship-to-ship transfers in Galveston Light. Fixture data holds an expected arrival date of November 6th.
  • Ast Sunshine – loaded approximately 1 million barrels on September 28th at Oxy Ingleside. Fixture data holds an expected arrival date of November 10th.

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water

Nearly 4-weeks after Hurricane Harvey, PADD 3 is finally starting to show signs of recovery. Total oil-on-water has fallen from 25.8 million barrels on 9/22 to 22.9 million barrels as of 9/28. Floating storage as a percentage of total oil-on-water also seems to have fallen consistently below 30% – this is in contrast to the previous week, which was on average 33% of total oil-on-water.

Philadelphia Loading Delays

Loading delays continue in Philadelphia due to choppy seas resulting from Tropical Storm Maria. No volume has been imported into the Port over the last week. The latest vessel to discharge any crude was the Coral Sea on September 17th into the PBF Paulsboro Refinery. There are currently six loaded vessels located near the Big Stone lightering zone and another 3 loaded vessels near the entrance to the Delaware Bay.

  • Nordic Zenith – arrived at Big Stone Light on September 13th loaded with approximately 1 million barrels of Akpo crude oil.
  • Zenith Spirit – arrived at Big Stone Light on September 15th loaded with approximately 1 million barrels of crude oil from the Bethioua installation.
  • Eagle San Antonio – arrived at Big Stone Light on September 23rd loaded with approximately 800,000 barrels of Akpo crude oil.
  • Eagle Kinarut – arrived at the entrance to Delaware Bay on September 23rd loaded with approximately 478,000 barrels of Arab grade crude oil from a ship-to-ship transfer at Galveston Light.
  • C. Innovator – arrived at the entrance to Delaware Bay on September 23rd loaded with approximately 1.1 million barrels of crude oil from the Brass River installation.
  • Cape Bari – arrived at the entrance to Delaware Bay on September 21st loaded with approximately 1 million barrels of Basrah Heavy crude oil.

Exports from Zawia Terminal

The Zawia terminal in Libya serves as the export point for the nearly 230,000 barrels of crude oil produced every day at the nation-states largest producing field – Sharara. The pipeline was blockaded by rebels and forced out of operation in late-August and early-September. The pipeline is once again fully operational. The Zawia export terminal loaded a total of 1,250 kbd of crude oil over the past week.

  • Zarifa Aliyeva – loaded approximately 500,000 barrels of crude oil on September 25th. She already discharged half her load at Fos Sur Mer and AIS signaling indicates she will discharge the rest of her load at Augusta on the eastern coast of Catania.
  • New Amorgos – loaded approximately 750,000 barrels of crude oil on September 27th. Currently headed to the Mediterranean Sea.

Total World Floating Storage

The volume of total world floating storage has seen a slight uptick over the past seven days. This follows nearly 6-weeks of declines. Between 7/30 and 9/13, total world floating storage declined by nearly 60 million barrels. This trend has since reversed slightly. Floating storage on 9/28 was 49.6 million barrels. The Brent forward curve continues to remain staunchly in backwardation.

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Kpler LNG (Increasing Brazil imports)

 

Originally Released on 28 September 2017

DIVERSIONS OF THE WEEK

We observed several vessels diverted from Barcelona recently. BP’s British Diamond loaded at Atlantic LNG on 13-September and was diverted on 25-September. She is now confirmed for Bahia Blanca, ETA 10-October:

Another cargo was expected to arrive at Barcelona on 29-September onboard NLNG’s LNG Oyo – the vessel diverted on 20-September and is now headed towards Brazil, ETA 1-October.

Shell’s Methane Lydon Volney was initially expected to arrive 23-September and diverted to South Korea instead, ETA 15-October.

Potential Diversion: Qatargas’ Umm Al Amad has indicated Barcelona as her next destination, ETA 28-October. According to her current course and heading, this could be a potential cargo for the APAC region instead:

Gas Natural’s Iberica Knutsen diverted from Ponce and is now delivering her Atlantic LNG-sourced cargo to Bahia, ETA 4-October:

Engie’s Gaselys loaded from Idku on 15-August, and after a stop offshore of Revithoussa she headed towards Gibraltar. She diverted on 25-September and is now floating again in the same area.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

Qatargas’ Onaiza was swapped with Qatargas’ Al Karaana for the delivery from Ras Laffan to South HookAl Karaana is now expected to deliver a cargo on 9-October. Meanwhile, Onaiza loaded at Ras Laffan on 28-September and is now headed towards Far East, ETA 15-October.

Petrochina’s Rudong terminal is receiving their first Pluto cargo aboard Woodside Donaldson, ETA 5-October.

Qatargas’ Al Ruwais is expected by Kpler Analysts to discharge her cargo at Swinoujscie, ETA 18-October.

Trafigura’s Hoegh Giant is signalling for Gate where she will reload, ETA 12-October.

Petrobras’ Cool Runner is currently reloading at Montoir, with Brazil as her potential destination.

Shell’s Maran Gas Pericles is delivering a tender cargo from Bonny for CFE at Altamira, ETA 11-October.

Engie’s Gdf Suez Cape Ann lifted a cargo at Idku on 10-September and is currently signalling for SGP area, ETA 11-October. The vessel took the route via the Cape of Good hope.

Yamal LNG’s Christophe De Margerie is now ballasting towards Yamal, ETA 9-October.

Sinopec’s newbuild Cesi Tianjin is now signalling for Curtis Island where she will load her maiden cargo, ETA 11-October.

 

BRAZIL IMPORTS

We observe increasing imports to Brazil since the beginning of 2016. Kpler analysts expect 0.27 Mt to be delivered in September 2017:

Monthly Brazil Imports by Origin 

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Kpler LPG (India’s increasing Imports)

Originally Released on 28 September 2017

Vessels

Americas

2 VLGC’s are currently on their way to discharge in the FE via Cape of Good Hope, ex-US:

  • Astomos’ Saltram, signalling for Japan, ETA 22-Oct.
  • Shell’s Shahrastani, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 20-Oct.

Petredec’s Morston discharged her cargo to Chorillo and is currently loading again via STS at Balboa Anchorage with Petredec’s Clipper Victory. The latter is loaded at PetroPortLPG,

After delivering her butane cargo to Chorrillo, ex-San Gregorio, Petredec’s Parthia is now signalling for Bahia Blanca, ETA 30-Sept.

After her first 4 voyages from ME to Far East, E1’s Gas Stella is now heading to load at Houston, ETA 25-Oct. Her exact loading terminal is yet to be confirmed.

After 2-months STS operations at Brisbane Anchorage, Trafigura’s George N is finally leaving the anchorage for the US. She is expected to reload there by the end of Oct.
Statoil’s Sunstar, ex-Freeport, is currently discharging her cargo at Kalbut. This is the first LPG cargo from the US to Indonesia since May 2017 and the first ever from Freeport to Indonesia.
Geogas’ Prins Alexander is heading to load at San Gregorio. This is second cargo out of Chile in 2017. 

Africa

Avance Gas’ Providence is expected to deliver her cargo to Philippines, ETA 28-Sept, ex-

SwissMarine’s Cresques loaded at Soyo and is signalling for SGP Area, ETA 12-Oct,

Chevron’s Ronald N, loaded her cargo at Escravos and is signalling for SGP Area, ETA 19-Oct.
Chevron’s Hellas Glory, currently waiting to load at Escravos. 

Europe/Mediterranean

Statoil’s Clipper Sun is currently discharging at Dongguan, China,

Australias

Trafigura’s Bw Njord is waiting in front of Brisbane Anchorage to replace George N who’s been there acting as FS for the past 2 months.

Geogas’ Bw Messina is signalling for Botany, ex-Marcus Hook, ETA 8-Oct.

Avance Gas’ Iris Glory is expected to deliver her cargo to Chiba, Japan, ETA 30-Sept. This is the only cargo out of Australia to Japan for the month September.

Asia

SK Gas’ Bw Tyr, ex-NWS, is signalling for Ulsan, South Korea. ETA 5-Oct.

 

India’s LPG signs of rebound
India’s LPG imports are showing signs of rebound from July onwards. Based on Kpler data, LPG imports averaged at 698 kt for June 2017, then increased from July onwards and reach March 2017 levels (period of record crore LPG connections).
Since March 2017, India has displaced Japan to become world’s second-largest importer of LPG, thanks to the Government’s initiatives to expand the LPG usage especially in the household sector.
India, which is competing with China to be the world’s largest importer of LPG, is constantly increasing its LPG imports on a monthly basis which is expected to witness no stop this soon.

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Kpler EU Gas (Mozah confirmed Grain via AIS)

 

Originally Released on 28 September 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

NORTHWEST EUROPE SUMMARY

EUROPEAN LINE-UP
South Hook
Qatargas’ Onaiza was swapped with Qatargas’ Al Karaana for the delivery from Ras Laffan to South HookAl Karaana is now expected to deliver a cargo on 9-October. Meanwhile, Onaiza loaded at Ras Laffan on 28-September and is now headed towards Far East.
Dragon
Qatargas’ Al Sheehaniya is expected by the Port Authority on 29-September. The terminal has increased send-out levels accordingly since 17-September.

 

Grain

Qatargas’ Mozah confirmed on 27-September her destination via AIS, ETA 2-October.

Klaipeda

Shell’s Valencia Knutsen is expected by the local Port Authority to deliver her cargo on 30-September.
Swinoujscie

Qatargas’ Al Ruwais is expected by Kpler Analysts to discharge her cargo, ETA 18-October.

Gate

Gas Natural’s La Mancha Knutsen is delivering a cargo, ETA 5-October. Kpler Analysts expect send-out levels to increase in order to accommodate the cargo.

Trafigura’s Hoegh Giant is signalling for Gate where she will reload, ETA 12-October.

 

Dunkerque
Engie’s GDF Suez Point Fortin remains confirmed by the Port Authority of Dunkerque, ETA 2-October. This will be the second cargo delivered there this month.

Fos Cavaou
Qatargas’ Al Khattiya is expected to deliver her cargo at the terminal 4-October. A reload will take place shortly after, on 6-October. Kpler Analysts expect a confirmation for a dedicated vessel.

Montoir

Petrobras’ Cool Runner is currently reloading at the berth, with Brazil as her potential destination.

According to Operator nominations, a reload is scheduled to take place on the 27th of October. Meanwhile, the plant is increasing imports during the month of October to a total of 5 cargoes.

Barcelona

Three slots were cancelled during the second half of September. Methane Lydon Volney was initially expected 23-September and was diverted to South Korea instead. A second cargo was expected 29-September onboard NLNG’s LNG Oyo – she is now headed towards Brazil. According to AIS, British Diamond has also been diverted and is now confirmed for Bahia Blanca, ETA 10-October.

Potential Diversion: Qatargas’ Umm Al Amad has indicated Barcelona as her next destination, ETA 28-October. According to her current course and heading, this could be a potential cargo for the APAC region instead.

Rovigo

Currently, there are two vessels expected in the next few days: RasGas’ Umm Bab, ETA 2-October, and RasGas’ Al Areesh, ETA 6-October.

RasGas’ Al Marrouna is now ballasting towards Ras Laffan to load a cargo, and is expected to deliver to Rovigo on 13-October.

 

TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR

There are two Q-Flexes headed towards the Suez canal from Ras Laffan with no clear destinations:  Al Bahiya and Al Shamal.

 

RAS LAFFAN

Liftings at Ras Laffan slightly decreased in Week 39. Top 5 destinations for W39 appeared: S.Korea 0.36 Mt, India 0.19 Mt, Pakistan 0.13 Mt, Italy 0.13 Mt, China 0.10 Mt. Currently, there are 5 vessels loading at the plant.

 

 

STOCK & SEND-OUT

During the previous week, Zeebrugge and Grain each received one cargo. South Hook average send-out still remains low:


European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).

 

PLANNED MAINTENANCE

This week, Revithoussa will undergo planned maintenance until 29-September. Sonatrach’s Cheikh El Mokrani is delivering a cargo shortly after on the same date.

During October, Montoir’s berth 1 will become available again. Until now, there has been a 36 hour restriction between each port call.

Toscana will undergo annual maintenance for the entire month of October, with no vessels at berth and 0% send-out.blog-orange-lineblog-orange-line

Kpler EU Gas (European Line-ups)

Originally Released on 25 September 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

NORTHWEST EUROPE SUMMARY

EUROPEAN LINE-UP
Barcelona:
Three slots have been cancelled during the second half of September. Methane Lydon Volney was initially expected 23-September. She was diverted to South Korea instead. A second cargo was expected 29-September onboard NLNG’s LNG Oyo. She is headed to Brazil now.  According to AIS, British Diamond could be delivering a cargo end of the month. If else, this could be the third diverted cargo this month. 

Dragon:
Qatargas’ Al Sheehaniya is expected by the Port Authority, ETA 29-September. The terminal has increased send-out levels accordingly since 17-September.

Dunkerque: 
ENGIE’s GDF Suez Point Fortin  has been confirmed by the Port Authority of Dunkerque, ETA 2-October. This will be the second cargo delivered there this month.

Gate:
Gas Natural’s Ribera Del Duero Knutsen is no longer expected to deliver her Sabine Pass-sourced cargo at Gate, ETA 6-October. The vessel has been diverted to deliver her cargo at Pecem instead, ETA 27-September.

 

Grain:
Sonatrach’s Tessala discharged a partial cargo at Barcelona. She is expected to discharge her remaining cargo at Grain, ETA 25-September.

Qatargas’ Mozah is expected to discharge her cargo at Isle of Grain. Kpler analysts expect her to arrive 3-October.
Klaipeda:
Shell’s Valencia Knutsen is finally headed to Klaipeda. The port expects the vessel to deliver the US-sourced cargo 30-September. The cargo was initially booked for 12-13-September, but was delayed due to severe weather conditions surrounding Sabine Pass.

 

Montoir:
Petrobras’ Cool Runner is expected to reload a cargo, ETA 27-September. Meanwhile, the Port Authority of Montoir expects to receive 3 cargos from NLNG in the first half of October: LNG Ondo, ETA 1-October, LNG Enugu 8-October and LNG Bayelsa, ETA 14-October.

South Hook:

There are no additional cargos expected at South Hook this month.

A Q-Flex sized cargo is expected 9-October, with initial reports indicating Qatargas’ Onaiza as the potential vessel to deliver. However, the vessel remains at the RL Anchorage and therefore Kpler Analysts expect that a swap has been made.

 

TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR
There are two Q-Flexes headed towards the Suez canal from Ras Laffan. Qatargas’ Al Karaana and Al Khattiya. Kpler Analysts will blast any potential updates on their destinations during the week. One of them could be a potential South Hook swap cargo.At Ras Laffan, there are currently two other Q-Flexes loading: Qatargas’ Al Bahiya and Rasgas’ Umm Al Amad.

 

RAS LAFFAN
Liftings at Ras Laffan increased in week 38, after a slow week 37. There are currently still 2 vessels loading, with arrivals at the plant within week 38. There are still no signs of reduced liftings as an indicator of maintenance. Kpler analysts will be monitoring liftings in October, where regular maintenance usually takes place.
STOCK & SEND-OUT
Dragon send-out has increased in response to the cargo being imported in the upcoming days. Meanwhile, South Hook send-out levels are forced to remain low due to the limited imported LNG in September.

During the previous week, only 1 cargo was imported at South Hook. The previous weeks stocks and send-out are reflected below:


European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).
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Kpler OIL (PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Congestion)

Originally Released on 22 September 2017

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Congestion

Congestion continues in PADD 3 following the effects of Hurricane Harvey. Oil-on-water is only 3 million barrels lower than last Friday and floating storage as a percentage of total oil-on-water remains staunchly above 30%. Floating storage is designated as crude loaded on vessels traveling at less than 3 knots for at least the past seven days. There are currently 14 vessels tagged as floating storage near Port Arthur, the Port of Houston and the Galveston lightering zone.

Iranian Floating Storage

The VLCC Diamond II, which fully loaded at Assaluyeh on March 17th, discharged approximately 2 million barrels through a ship-to-ship transfer on September 5th, bringing Iranian floating storage volume levels to nil for only the second period of time this year. Iranian floating storage has fallen approximately 11.5 million barrels since early June. Iran rapidly increased seaborne exports through the first half of the year.

Venezuelan Loading Issues

Earlier in the week, there was more than 11 million barrels of capacity waiting to be loaded off the coast of Venezuela. After peaking on September 16th, total capacity waiting to be loaded has fallen by 4.3 million barrels. The Eagle Kangar, Ithaki and Phoenix Vanguard are currently docked and loading crude oil.

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Kpler LPG (Recovering US Exports)

Originally Released on 21 September 2017

Vessels

Americas

2 VLGC’s are currently on their way to discharge in the FE via Cape of Good Hope, ex-US:

  • Mabanaft’s Levant, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 15-Oct.
  • Shell’s Hellas Sparta, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 25-Oct.

Petredec’s Morston loaded again via STS at Balboa Anchorage, this time with Petredec’s Clipper Victory. She is expected at Chorrillo today for discharge.

Astomos’ Crystal River finally completed her load at Nederland for her first voyage, currently heading to FE for discharge.

Newbuild Aisling has left the Ulsan Shipyard and is signalling for Balboa Anchorage, ETA 4-Oct. She is relet to Shell until Sept-2022. The VLGC is expected to load at US Gulf Coast by the first half of Oct.

Europe/Mediterranean

After more than 2 years at Ocoa Bay Anchorage, Geogas’ Summit Terra has finally moved out. She is currently heading to Turkey, ETA 1-Oct.

Petredec’s Bw Odin discharged her cargo fully via STS at Suez Anchorage with VLGC Isis Gas and Gas Pride, ex-Asaluyeh. Her next destination for load is yet to be confirmed.

2 VLGC’s are currently heading to Terneuzen for discharge, ex-Marcus Hook:

Navigator Pegasus is signalling for Jorf Lasfar to discharge her 12 Kt butane cargo, ex-Corpus Christi, ETA 28-Sept. 

Africa

After her partial load at Kwinana, Geogas’ Pointis headed to EAF and discharged her cargo via STS with Geogas’ Champlain near Mahajanga Port. She is currently waiting at Durban Anchorage.

4 VLGC’s are expected to pick up their cargoes out of WAF in the upcoming days:

  • ExxonMobil’s Copernicus, just completed her load at Oso.
  • SwissMarine’s Cresques, currently loading at Soyo.
  • Chevron’s Ronald N, waiting in front of Escravos to load.
  • Chevron’s Hellas Glory, to load at Escravos, ETA 22-Sept.
  • Vitol’s Pampero, to load at Bioko, ETA 24-Sept.
  • Bw Brage, to load at Soyo, ETA 13-Oct.

Asia

Shell’s Secreto discharged her cargo fully via STS with 2 Siamgas’ VLGC’s, ex-Nederland: Ming Ming at Nipah Anchorage and Ming Zhu at Sriracha. She is currently heading back to Houston for reload, ETA 22-Oct.

SK Gas’ Bw Tyr is on her way to load at NWS for a FE discharge, ETA 23-Sept.

 

US Exports on Recovery
3 Weeks after the Harvey Hurricane, the US flows are on the rise:
Based on Kpler data, 35 VLGC’s are currently loading or have loaded their cargo since 3 weeks ago and are currently on their way to their destinations. Enterpriseholds the highest record of exports with 11 VLGC’s, followed by Nederland and Targa with 8 and 6 vessels, respectively.

above: US cargoes currently in transit or loading


above: US cargoes currently in transit or loading by Origin Installations

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