Kpler US Gas (11 vessels expected by Sabine Pass)

Originally Released on 26 July 2017

US MARKET

Sabine Pass Inventories

We observed a stable average send-in level of 2.14 Bcf/d this week.

 

Sabine Pass: Lineup 

Currently, 11 vessels are expected to arrive in the next few weeks. Also, Cheniere vessels  Magellan Spirit and Maria Energy are now ballasting in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Eligible Vessels for Sabine Pass 

There are several ballast vessels heading toward the Americas with no clear destination:

Main Highlights

Shell’s Maran Gas Hector is now discharging her Sabine Pass-sourced cargo at Manzanillo.

Cheniere’s Creole Spirit loaded at Sabine Pass on 11-July and is now waiting offshore of Pecem to discharge her cargo, ETA 27-July.

Petrobras’ Excalibur is discharging now her Atlantic LNG-sourced cargo at Cartagena, Colombia. This is the first delivery there in 2017.

Currently, three vessels are headed from Sabine Pass towards Far East: Shell’s Maran Gas Olympias , KOGAS’ K. Jasmine and KOGAS’ Sm Seahawk. Also, two vessels are now headed toward Gibraltar: Cheniere’s Maran Gas Alexandria and Shell’s Valencia Knutsen.

Panama Canal Transit 

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Kpler OIL (Saudi Arabia and Iraq exports)

Originally Released on 21 July 2017

Saudi Arabia and Iraq exports

Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce exports in July compared to June 2017. Kpler data currently indicates that Saudi exports could end July between 6,421 kbd and 7,100 kbd. While the variance of this range is quite wide, it still serves as an indication that exports might not increase compared to June assuming the higher end of the range and below May levels assuming the lower end of the range. The month of May saw the lowest export total since December 2015, according to Kpler data.

Saudi Arabia is particularly concerned regarding U.S. imports, due to the visibility of crude movements into the nation. U.S. imports of Saudi crude hit a 7-year historical low on a weekly-basis, according to EIA data. Kpler data shows a steep reduction of U.S. imports year-over-year and compared to an average of the last 3 years.

Furthermore, Saudi cuts to the United States will continue and possibly deepen further. Kpler data reveals that on July 20th, there are 15 VLCCs and 3 Suezmax vessels in transit to the U.S.

Saudi crude in transit to United States – July 20th

However, the Saudi strategy has been partially offset by increasing U.S. imports from Iraq which grew by 113 kbd (26%) in June 2017 compared to the same month a year earlier and will increase by 335 kbd (85%) year on year in July 2017, according to our predictive model. With that being said, the number of shipments headed from Iraq to the United States has significantly decreased over the last few weeks, as shown in the Kpler screenshot below. It is possible that Iraq could join the Saudi strategy to accelerate the rebalancing scenario.

Iraq crude in transit to United States – July 20th
Ecuador officially breaks the OPEC production agreement

On Tuesday, July 18th, Ecuador officially announced its intent to break the OPEC production agreement. While Ecuador only represented approximately 1.4% of the total OPEC production cut, it could serve as dangerous precedent for larger nations to break from the agreement. The Ecuadorian government cited fiscal constraints as a reason for the need to increase production. Kpler data reveals consistent monthly increases in Ecuadorian exports from 382 kbd in March to 435 kbd in June – a near 11% increase. These elevated production levels have not been seen since last June 2016.

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Kpler EU Gas (Arctic Princess expected to discharge at Klaipeda ETA 22-July)

Originally Released on 20 July 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

North West Europe: Lineup and Inventories

Spain: Lineup and Inventories

Forecasted Vessels

South Hook:
The terminal is still expecting the following vessels to arrive in the next few days:
Grain:
Iberdola’s Arctic Discoverer will load at Snohvit on 22-July and is expected to deliver a cargo to Grain on 2-August.
Gate:

Shell’s Maran Gas Mystras is now reloading at Gate. Another reload is potentially expected on 28-July onboard Woodside Rees Withers based on her AIS signal – the vessel is currently ballasting towards the terminal.

Qatargas’ Al Gharrafa lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 5-July and is delivering to Gate on 27-July.

Zeebrugge:

Rasgas’ Al Khuwair loaded at Ras Laffan on 12-July and is now headed towards the terminal, ETA 31-July according to the Port Authorities.
Toscana:
Rasgas’ Milaha Qatar is delivering her tender cargo from Ras Laffan on 22-July.
Montoir:

Engie’s Grace Cosmos re-exported a cargo on 24-June and is expected to discharge at Qidong on 25-July.

Currently, three vessels are expected to discharge at the terminal in the next few weeks:

Klaipeda:
Statoil’s Arctic Princess loaded at Snohvit on 12-July and is delivering a cargo on 22-July.
Swinoujscie:
Kpler analysts expect Al Hamla to deliver her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo on 3-August.
Sines:
LNG Lagos Ii is now discharging her Bonny-sourced cargo at the terminal
Rovigo:

To Keep on Your Radar

Rasgas’ Umm Bab loaded at Ras Laffan on 13-July and is currently crossing the Red Sea with no clear destination.

Trafigura’s Energy Atlantic lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 13-July and is now signalling for the Suez Canal.

LNG Data Analysis

Ras Laffan Cargo Liftings Weekly

This week the majority of the vessels headed towards Far East and the Middle East.
European Stocks and Send-outsEuropean Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).

At South Hook, we observed a stable average send-out level of 179.44 GWh/d this week.

European Re-exports

The trend of European re-exports has been declining over the past year:

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Kpler LNG (European Re-exports)

Originally Released on 20 July 2017

Main Highlights

Peru LNG still remains inactive, with GaleaGemmata and Scf Mitre ballasting along the coast. Last loading at the terminal took place onboard Maran Gas Efessos on 2-July.

Sonatrach’s Ougarta loaded at Bethioua and is now headed towards MAAGP, ETA 28-July. This is the first delivery from Algeria to Kuwait.

Newbuild Chevron’s Asia Venture is now ballasting towards Darwin to load her maiden cargo, ETA 28-July.

Christophe De Margerie is currently docked at Zeebrugge for gas up and cool down operations.

The name of the vessel Hanjin Ras Laffan (IMO 9176008) was changed to HL Ras Laffan.

Interesting Moves

Iberdola’s Arctic Discoverer will load at Snohvit on 22-July and is expected to deliver a cargo to Grain on 2-August.

Rasgas’ Milaha Qatar is delivering her tender cargo from Ras Laffan to Toscana on 22-July.

Rasgas’ Al Khuwair loaded at Ras Laffan on 12-July and is now headed towards Zeebrugge, ETA 31-July.

Cheniere’s Oak Spirit is about to deliver a tender cargo from Sabine Pass to CFE at Altamira, ETA 20-July.

Kogas’ K.Jasmine loaded at Sabine Pass on 12-July and is signalling for Tongyeong, ETA 20-August. The vessel took an unusual route and is now passing by French Guiana.

Petrobras’ Esshu Maru will discharge her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo at Quintero on 9-August. The cargo was on water since 4-June.

Shell’s Gaslog Geneva loaded at Idku on 15-July and is now signalling for Atlantic, ETA 25-July.

Reloads of the Week 

Vitol’s Maran Gas Mystras is now reloading at Gate. Another reload is potentially expected on 28-July onboard Woodside Rees Withers based on her AIS signal – the vessel is currently ballasting towards the Falmouth, UK.

Engie’s Grace Cosmos re-exported a cargo on 24-June and is expected to discharge at Qidong on 25-July.

Shell’s Methane Spirit reloaded at SLNG on 19-July and is now floating offshore of the terminal with no clear destination.

Monthly European Re-Exports

The trend of European re-exports has been declining over the past year:

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Kpler LPG (First voyage of Crystal River)

Originally Released on 20 July 2017
Vessels

Americas

P66’s Clipper Freeport completed her first voyage by discharging fully via STS with Morston at Balboa Anchorage, ex-Freeport. She is now heading back to reload at Freeport, ETA 22-Jul. Morston proceeded to complete her load via another STS with Clipper Star and is currently docked at Chorrillo, discharging her 45 Kt propane cargo.
Asia
Crystal River has started her first voyage by signalling for SGP Area, ETA 1-Aug. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed. K-Line’s VLGC is the 24th VLGC to join Astomos’ time charter fleet.
After two partial discharges at Male and Nipah Anchorage with Shell’s Lubara and Captain Markos NI respectively, Shell’s Cougar is currently heading to complete her discharge at Calaca, ETA 23-Jul.
Shell’s Shergar is heading to Male Anchorage after two partial discharges at Nipah Anchorage with Epic St. Martin and Captain Markos NI.
Legend Prestige completed her loading at NWS and is currently heading to Pyeong Taek for discharge, ETA 29-Jul.
Energy Orpheus is signalling for NWS after completing her discharge in Japan. She is expected there by 2-Aug.
Europe/Mediterranean
Sunoco’s Corvette is signalling for Terneuzen, ex-Marcus Hook, ETA 30-Jul.

Africa

The second cargo in 2017 out of Kwinana has been picked by Navigator Centauri. She is expected to discharge via STS at Beira, ETA 27-Jul.

Vitol’s Clipper Odin is expected to dock at Saldanha today, ex-Bioko.

Epic Bali is currently discharging at Dakar after reloading via STS with Geogas’ Surville at Dakar Anchorage.

Providence is signalling for Bioko, ETA 11-Aug. It is also worth mentioning Bw Trader who is expected to load at Escravos under Petredec, ETA 3-Aug.

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Kpler US Gas (Diverted Maran Gas Sparta is discharging at Manzanillo)

Originally released on 19 July 2017

US MARKET

Sabine Pass Inventories

We observed a stable average send-in level of 2.11 Bcf/d this week.

Sabine Pass: Lineup 

Currently, 13 vessels are expected to arrive in the next few weeks. Also, Shell’s Scf Melampus and Cheniere’s Maria Energy are currently ballasting in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Eligible Vessels for Sabine Pass 

There are several ballast vessels heading toward the Americas with no clear destination:

Main Highlights

Diverted Shell’s Maran Gas Sparta loaded at Sabine Pass on 3-July and is now discharging her cargo at Manzanillo.

Cheniere’s Oak Spirit is about to deliver a tender cargo from Sabine Pass to CFE at Altamira, ETA 20-July.

Kogas’ K.Jasmine loaded at Sabine Pass on 12-July and is signalling for Tongyeong, ETA 20-August. The vessel took an unusual route and is now passing by Venezuela.

Shell’s Maran Gas Olympias lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 10-July and is currently headed towards Far East with no clear destination.

Cheniere’s Maran Gas Alexandria loaded at Sabine Pass on 19-July and is signalling for S.Atlantic, ETA 15-August.

Panama Canal Transit 

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Kpler EU Gas (Al Gharrafa heading to Suez with Ras Laffan sourced cargo)

Originally Released on 13 July 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

North West Europe: Lineup and Inventories

 

Spain: Lineup and Inventories

 

Forecasted Vessels

South Hook:

The terminal is still expecting the following vessels to arrive in the next few days:
Grain:
Trafigura’s Adam LNG is still expected to deliver her Bonny-sourced cargo on 14-July according to her AIS.
Gate:
Shell’s Maran Gas Mystras dischraged her Sabine Pass cargo at Grain on 8-July. The vessel is now expected to reload at Gate, ETA 18-July. On 13-July the vessel sent an AIS signal for Dunkerque, but the port has confimed that no cargoes are expected in the next few days.
Montoir:

Engie’s Grace Cosmos re-exported a cargo on 24-June and is now headed towards Far East with no clear destination.

Currently, three vessels are expected to discharge at the terminal in the next few weeks:

Klaipeda:
Cheniere will deliver the first US LNG cargo to Klaipeda from Sabine Pass in the second half of August. Gas Natural will deliver to Klaipeda a second US cargo in mid-September.
Sines:
Qatargas’ Al Kharaitiyat lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 24-June and is now discharging at the plant.
Cartagena:
Gas Natural’s Ribera Del Duero Knutsen lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 9-July and is delivering it to the terminal on 21-July.
Rovigo:

To Keep on Your Radar

Qatargas’ Al Gharrafa lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 5-July and is expected to cross the Suez on 14-July.

Qatargas’ Al Hamla loaded at Ras Laffan on 10-July and is now headed toward the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

 

LNG Data Analysis

Ras Laffan Cargo Liftings Weekly

This week the majority of the vessels headed toward Far East and the Middle East.
European Stocks and Send-outsEuropean Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).

At South Hook, we observed an increased average send-out level from 122.11 GWh/d last week to 190.07 GWh/d this week.

Monthly European Imports by Destination

In June 2017, Spain imported 0.99Mt (versus 0.88Mt in May), UK received 0.35Mt (versus 0.47Mt in May), and France imported 0.61Mt (versus 1.01Mt in May):

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