Kpler LNG (Bw Gdf Suez Brussels delivering to South Korea)

Originally Released on 1 June 2017

Market Updates

Gorgon Train 1 resumed LNG production this week. Currently, Energy Confidence is loading a cargo and is expected to discharge at Kawasaki, ETA 17-June. Also, two vessels are expected to load at the terminal in the next few days: Seishu Maru on 2-June and Beidou Star, ETA 9-June.

At Toscana, only two out of four secured tender cargoes have been delivered for OLT Toscana in May. Lalla Fatma N’Soumer arrived with her Bethioua-sourced cargo on 31-May and discharged a second cargo.

Statoil’s Arctic Discoverer is currently making her laden voyage toward Gate with her Sabine Pass cargo, ETA 7-June. This is the first cargo from Sabine Pass to NWE. Also, Cheniere’s Clean Ocean is delivering her Sabine Pass cargo for PGNiG at Swinoujscie on 7-June.

Shell’s Gaslog Shanghai loaded at Sabine Pass on 29-May is currently discharging her tender cargo for CFE at Altamira.

Mubaraz discharged her Das Island-sourced cargo at Ruwais on 28-May – this is the first cargo delivered to the terminal in 2017.

This week we observed different types of floating cargoes on water: delayed at discharge terminals – LNG Benue off of Bahia; completely stopped – Ibra LNG at Fujairah and Trinity Glory off of NWS; reducing speed while waiting for orders such as Gaslog Glasgow off of Mauritius. To check the current number of floating vessels, feel free to consult Live Fleet Overview section – they are marked with the “Storage” tag.

Interesting Moves 

Currently, two backhaul cargoes are expected to arrive to Zeebrugge from Ras Laffan onboard Wilforce, ETA 18-June and Wilpride, ETA 28-June.

Trafigura’s Golar Penguin lifted a cargo at Bonny on 23-May and is now making her laden voyage toward Dahej, ETA 17-June.

Shell’s Maran Gas Pericles loaded a cargo at Soyo and is now headed toward the Cape of Good Hope with no clear destination.

Gas Natural’s Ribera Del Duero Knutsen lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 30-May and is now making her laden voyage toward Sines, ETA 13-June.

Trafigura’s Golar Seal lifted a partial cargo at Ras Laffan on 23-May and is currently delivering it to Escobar according to Kpler analysts, ETA 18-June.

Trafigura’s Golar Ice loaded at Bethioua on 29-May and is now headed toward the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

Statoil’s Arctic Voyager is ballasting toward Bonny to load a cargo, ETA 3-June. This is the third Statoil’s loading at the terminal since 2008 and 2012.

Egypt LNG Imports and Exports

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Brussels loaded at Idku on 26-May and is delivering to South Korea, ETA 19-June. Also, Engie’s Provalys is expected to load a cargo at the terminal on 15-June.

We observed a significant decrease of imported LNG volumes at Ain Sokhna in May – 0.33 Mt versus 0.55 Mt imported in April. During the month two cargoes onboard Cool Explorer and LNG Benue were diverted from the terminal.

Since July 2016, we witness a constant decrease of the import.

Ain Sokhna Monthly LNG Imports by Origin

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Kpler OIL (May 2017 OPEC and Russian Exports)

Originally Released on 1 June 2017
OPEC exports  – May
Last week, Kpler announced OPEC preliminary exports between 24.3 mmbpd and 24.7 mmbpd. Final figures reveal that OPEC exports finished the month of May at 24.7 mmbpd. This was an increase compared to the month of April, which registered the lowest level of crude exportation since November. However, exports continued to remain below levels seen in October and March. All of this was despite rising exports in Nigeria and Libya alongside partial export recovery in Iran.
  • Libya: NOC announced that Libyan production passed from 550 kbd in April to 827 kbd (+277 kbd) in May following El Sharara and El Feel field resuming operations. This had an immediate impact on exports which increased from 460 kbd to 625 kbd (+165 kbd). NOC declared earlier this year that the country expected production to reach 1.1 mmbpd by the month of August.
  • Nigeria: Forcados resumed operations and supplied 3 million barrels in May. Two Suezmax and one Aframax already signaled Forcados as a loading point in June.
Russian exports – May
Russian exports decreased for the first time since the production-cut agreement. High compliance rates announced by Russian authorities had not been reflected in exports totals over the last few months which continued to rise through the month of April attaining a record 5,231 kbd. Kpler data shows that May exports dropped by 380 kbd, bringing exports down to 4,851 kbd which remains 135 kbd above November 2016 levels.
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Kpler LPG (Brazil deliveries – Gas Star and Saltram)

Originally Released on 1 June 2017

Vessels

Americas

It is also worth mentioning Ferndale’s only VLGC loading this week (2nd in May), which was Petrogas’ Legend Prosperity. She is now heading to discharge her 46 Kt cargo (23 Kt Propane : 23 Kt butane) at Ulsan Port, ETA 11-Jun. After her discharge in the Far East,  Bw Koyoto is also in her way to be the first load at Ferndale in June, ETA 9-Jun.

 

2 VLGC’s are on their way to discharge in Brazil, ex-USGC:

  • E1’s Gas Star (46 Kt propane), to dicharge at Santos by 13-Jun, ex-Enterprise.
  • Petrobras’ Saltram (46 Kt propane), to discharge at Suape by 9-Jun.

Europe/Mediterranean

Gas Leo has signaled for Terneuzen, ex-Marcus Hook. Sunoco’s VLGC is expected to discharge part of her cargo there by 6-Jun. According to the Market, shes is already fixed by ExxonMobil for her next voyage to load at Kaarstoe  between 20-22 June and discharge in ME.

Corvette is waiting in front of Marcus Hook to load her 45 Kt propane cargo under Mercuria by early June. She is expected to head to Lavera Port as part of her discharge plan, according to the market.

After her partial discharge at Petgaz, Karoline N headed to Limassol Anchorage, ex-Enterprise (30 Kt butane : 10 Kt propane). Glencore’s VLGC discharged part of her cargo there via several STS’s with small vessels and is now at Crete Anchorage to continue discharging her cargoes via STS.

Pyxis Alfa has started her first voyage and is now heading to load at Yanbu, TA 8-Jun. The VLGC is expected to be under Petredec.

Sonatrach’s Rhourd Enouss has signaled for Aliaga, ex-Bethioua. ETA 2-Jun. This is the first LPG cargo transfer between the two terminals since Dec. 2014.

ExxonMobil’s Al Wukir completed her discharge at Suape, ex-Enterprise and has now signaled for Arzew Port, ETA 3-Jun.

After waiting for 20 days, SHV’s Bw Havis finally moved to Suez STS and is currently performing a STS there with Isis Gas, ex-Yanbu. Ocean Gas also completed her load at Yanbu and joined them today at Suez STS for discharging via STS. She is currently performing a STS with Gas Beauty l.

Pazifik is currently discharging her 32 Kt butane cargo at Mohammedia, ex-Fawley & Braefoot Bay Shell.

 

Africa

This week, we witnessed 2 VLGC’s that have loaded cargo out of WAF and 3 more that are expected to do so in the next few days:

  • Total’s Hellas Sparta, finished loading at Bonny on 27-May. According to the market, she is already fixed to reload at Bonny under Total after her discharge in the Far East, ETA end-June.
  • Chevron’s Hellas Hercules, currently loading at Sanha.
  • Geogas’ Bw Empress, currently loading at Soyo.
  • Petredec’s Bw Leo, currently waiting to load at Escravos.
  • Petredec’s Bw Loyalty, expected to dock at Soyo’s berth by then end of today.
Clipper Venus just docked at Sines today to discharge part of her cargo there, ex-Bioko. It is also worth mentioning her next voyage which has already been fixed by Chevron to load at Escravos, ETA H2-Jun.

Asia/Oceania

After being a floating storage at Brisbane Anchorage for almost 3 months, Trafigura’s Bw Mindoro finally discharged her cargo fully via several STS’s with smaller vessels and is now heading to SGP Area. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed. At the same time, another Trafigura’s VLGC, Bw Njord arrived at Brisbane Anchorage on 29-May, ex-Enterprise, to replace Bw Mindoro as floating storage for the next few months.

After her partial discharge via STS with Lubara, Shell’s Shahrastani headed to Nipah Anchorage to complete her discharge via STS with another Shell’s VLGC, Captain Markos Nl. Shahrastani has signaled for Nederland and is expected to pass Cape of Good Hope to load there by 8-Jul.

US Propane Exports: Kpler vs. EIA
Below is YTD and Monthly comparison of 2016 and 2017 (until March) Kpler US Export figures vs. official EIA figures. In order to use the same methodology, we used the same standard conversion rate for turning Kt to bbl as EIA which is for propane only under pressurized conditions, 12.5 bbl/ton. We also added the overland exports to Mexico and Canada which is included in EIA figures*. Applying this same method in calculating the numbers, there is less a 2% difference for YTD flows ending in Mar-2017.
*  The figures were extracted from USITC – United States International Trade Commission

Source for official EIA figures: Energy Information Administration website (EIA) 
Indian Import Figures: Kpler vs. JODI
Below is YTD and Monthly comparison of 2016 & 2017 (until March) Kpler Indian import figures vs. official JODI figures. There is less a 3% difference for YTD flows ending in Mar-2017.
 
Source for official Indian import figures: JODI
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Kpler US Gas (Clean Ocean delivering US cargo to Swinoujscie)

Originally Released on 31 May 2017

US MARKET

Sabine Pass Inventories

We observed a decreased average send-in level from 2.08 Bcf/d last week to 1.58 Bcf/d this week.

 

Sabine Pass: Lineup 

Currently, ten vessels are expected to arrive in the next few weeks:

Eligible Vessels for Sabine Pass 

There are several ballast vessels heading toward the Americas with no clear destination:

Main Highlights
Cheniere’s Clean Ocean is delivering her Sabine Pass cargo for PGNiG at Swinoujscie, ETA 7-June. This is the second cargo from Sabine Pass to NWE.
Shell’s Gaslog Shanghai loaded at Sabine Pass on 29-May and is about to discharge at Altamira, ETA 31-May.
Gas Natural’s Ribera Del Duero Knutsen lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 30-May and is now making her laden voyage toward Sines, ETA 13-June.
Currently, four vessels are headed toward Far East: Cheniere’s Stena Crystal Sky, Cheniere’s Methane Spirit, Cheniere’s Gaslog Chelsea and Gas Natural’s Cadiz Knutsen.
Shell’s Maran Gas Amphipolis loaded at Sabine Pass on 9-May and is now crossing the Gulf of Aden with potential destinations in the Middle East and India.

 

Sabine Pass Cargoes by Destination Region

Panama Canal Transit 
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Kpler OIL (OPEC May preliminary data)

Originally Released on 25 May 2017

OPEC preliminary exports — May
As mentioned in previous reports, OPEC April exports fell below October levels for the first time in 2017. Much of this decline was due to falling exports from OPEC member nations exempted from the production cut. May exports are expected to remain below October exports despite a slight month-over-month increase, according to Kpler preliminary data. OPEC total exports are expected to end May at 24.3 mmbpd according to the loading rate from May 1st to present and  24.7 mmbpd according to our predictive model based on AIS, as shown in the 2 charts below:
OPEC exports – May actual exports in 24-day kbd

OPEC exports – May with scheduled cargos (AIS*)

*Our AIS model takes into account congestion time and berthing time for each port
Highlights
  • Loading rate in Angola within the first 24 days of May was significantly below previous months. The drop is driven by less loadings of Clov, Girassol and Dalia grades.
  • El-Sharara and El-Feel fields resumed operation resulting in a significant increase in Zawia and Mellitah terminals exports. Libyan exports are expected to increase for the first time in 2017.
  • With Bonga field loadings back to normal and the Forcados field resuming operations, Nigerian exports are also expected to increase in May.
*Actual exported volumes in 24-day kbd
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Kpler LNG (Diversion of Cool Explorer)

Originally Released on 25 May

Plants & Terminals

Recent maintenance at Snohvit has led to a drop in May exports. The fleet has been reallocated accordingly:

  • Arctic Lady is currently discharging her Bethioua cargo at SLNG
  • Arctic Discoverer is en route to deliver a Sabine Pass cargo to Gate, ETA 7th June
  • Arctic Aurora is heading to Sabine to load an early June cargo

Idku is experiencing high activity in May. Two cargoes have been loaded aboard Gaslog Geneva and Provalys, with destination of Delimara and Fos Cavaou respectively. A third cargo is due for loading aboard BW GDF Suez Brussels this week. This contrasts with a significant decrease of Egyptian imports for the same month.

Toscana has only received 1 of the 4 expected May cargoes recently awarded in a tender

Argentina tender deliveries are taking place according to schedule. Glencore’s Maran Gas Mystras is now delivering a Ras Laffan source cargo to Escobar. She is expected to load her following cargo at Sabine Pass for Total

Currently 4 vessels are heading Far East carrying Sabine Pass cargoes, while another 5 are making deliveries across the Atlantic

Interesting Moves

Vitol’s Cool Explorer was heading towards Port Said with her Bethioua cargo. She diverted and is now discharging in Barcelona

Golar Penguin has just departed Bonny with a cargo for Trafigura

Wilforce is expected to bring a Qatari backhaul cargo to Europe, loading end of May. She is currently ballasting in Fujairah

LNG Jurojin is sailing toward Das Island to load a tender cargo for Total. She had been exclusively an APLNG project vessel since her startup in January 2016

Soyo tender cargo onboard Sonangol Etosha is expected at Samcheok, ETA 12-June

Recently, 2 ship-to-ship operations took place at Subic Bay, Philippines (on 25 April and 11 May) between Petronas’s Polar Spirit and Jovo’s Seri Bakti. The cargoes then were delivered to Jovo onboard Polar Spirit

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Kpler US Gas (Arctic Discoverer – first US cargo to NWE)

Originally Released on 24 May 2017

US MARKET

Sabine Pass Inventories

This week we observed stable average send-in level of 2.09 Bcf/d.

Sabine Pass: Lineup 

Currently, twelve vessels are expected to arrive in the next few weeks:

 

Eligible Vessels for Sabine Pass 

There are several ballast vessels heading toward the Americas with no clear destination:

Main Highlights

Statoil’s Arctic Discoverer is delivering the first US cargo to NWE. It was loaded at Sabine Pass on 20-May and will be delivered to Gate on 7-June.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Everett is about to discharge her Atlantic LNG-sourced cargo at Everett.

Shell’s Gaslog Shanghai loaded at Sabine Pass on 15-May and discharged at Altamira.

Union Fenosa’s Cadiz Knutsen loaded at Sabine Pass on 8-May and is now making her laden voyage toward Taichung, Taiwan, ETA 13-June.

Cheniere’s Methane Spirit is expected to deliver her Sabine Pass cargo to Boryeong, S. Korea on 14-June.

Cheniere’s Maran Gas Alexandria lifted a cargo on Sabine Pass on 18-May and is now headed toward Bahia Blanca, ETA 14-June.

Panama Canal Transit 

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