Kpler Oil (World Oil-on-Water Flattens Out)

Originally Released on 21 December 2017

World Oil-on-Water Flattens Out

Over the past 3-weeks, world oil-on-water has fluctuated within a narrow bound. Between 12/4 and 12/20, oil-on-water remained between 850 and 875 million barrels, according to the 10-day moving average. This follows a November that realized world daily oil-on-water that trended lower by more than 100 million barrels.

Dramatically Malacca Strait Oil-on-Water Trends Lower 

Malacca Strait oil-on-water was in a consistent uptrend through November and early December. Between 11/1 and 12/15, the 10-day moving average increased 14 million barrels – a 56% expansion. Over the past 2-weeks, this trend has since broken to the downside.

Hound Point Seaborne Exports Fall Dramatically 

The North Sea Forties pipeline (also known as FPS) has officially been out of operation for more than a week following the discovery of a widening hairline fracture along a portion of the pipe near Aberdeenshire.  FPS, which has a capacity of 450,000 bpd, connects 80+ offshore production fields to the United Kingdom.Hounds Point, the main export terminal for Forties grade crude oil, has realized large week-over-week drops in crude loaded for export. Weeks-starting 12/11 and 12/18 have loaded an average of 123 kbd, well below the 300+ kbd levels from late November and early December. Ineos has announced the expectation that the Forties Pipeline should be back in limited operation by early 2018.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Recover Slightly

Kirkuk Terminal daily loadings have recovered slightly over the past two-weeks. Kirkuk Terminal serves as the main seaborne loading point for Kirkuk grade crude oil produced in Northern Iraq. Disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government in mid-October significantly disrupted production and export flows. Since 12/2, the 10-day moving average has increased 120 kbd – an 89% jump.

Saldanha Bay December Net Flows

The Saldanha Bay storage terminal, located on the west coast of South Africa, has realized a net positive inflow of crude oil into the facility since the beginning of December. Of the six total vessels that have docked with Saldanha, four have discharged crude into the facility. AIS signaling indicates another discharge of 1.07 million barrels into Saldanha on 12/28.

Figure: Positive values imply volume being discharged into the facility while negative values imply volume being loaded on vessels and leaving Saldanha.

 

Kpler OIL (Increasing Exports from Venezuela)

Originally Released on 14 December 2017

Canadian Seaborne Exports Spike

Over the past several days, Canadian seaborne oil export loadings have shown strength. Between 12/8 and 12/13, the 7-day moving average increased 455 kbd. A sizable 768 kbd oil shipment was loaded for Italy on 12/9, the first flow of its kind since late-October.

South Korean Imports Rebound

Following a steady rise and fall in daily import volumes into South Korea in late-November, over the past week import volumes have once again rebounded. Between 12/8 and 12/13, the 7-day moving average increased 646 kbd. Two large shipments from Saudi Arabia (3,117 kbd) and Kuwait (2,179 kbd) on 12/6 helped to drive import levels higher for the week.

U.S. Exports Struggle to Find Direction

U.S. seaborne oil exports have struggled to find direction over the past month. Week-ending 12/8 finished at 1,054 kbd in oil shipped abroad – a 29% decrease week-over-week. This is a continuation of the zig-zag pattern first established in mid-November.

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Increases

December has been marked by a consistent increase in PADD 3 oil-on-water volumes. Between 12/3 and 12/14, oil-on-water has increased 8.43 million barrels. It appears that most of this volume is readily moving in and out of the region – floating storage has remained at or below 20% of total oil-on-water volume. Floating storage is assumed as crude on vessels that have moved at less than one knot for at least the past 10-days.

Venezuelan Exports Trend Higher

Following a prolonged period of export declines, Venezuela has managed to grow oil shipments leaving the nation-state since late-October. Between weeks-starting 10/30 and  12/4, crude leaving Venezuelan shores increased by 414 kbd – a 35% change.

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Kpler OIL (Crude OIL Exports from U.S. to Asia increase this week)

 

Originally Released on 7 December 2017

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Remain Restricted

Kirkuk Terminal continues to experience restricted loading volumes following fighting in Northern Iraq between the Kurdish Peshmerga and Baghdad in mid-October. The terminal, which is located in Turkey, receives oil by pipeline from the Kirkuk oil fields under dispute.The 10-day moving average has largely remained at or below the 300 kbd level for the past six-weeks. This remains well under the 500-plus kbd average loading levels before the fighting began. Large gaps between loading days continues to persist. The period between 11/28 and 12/4 was the largest such gap since early November.

Venezuelan Exports Lower in November

Venezuela continues to struggle economically, as financial debt obligations have pulled capital and resources away from the nation’s extensive crude oil production, refining and exportation network. Much of 2017 has realized falling oil exports leaving Venezuela. The month of November realized 1,364 kbd in total seaborne exports down 29% since February.

Malacca Strait Oil-on-Water Trends Higher

Malacca oil-on-water ends the week more than double the level realized on 10/28. Floating storage, which is also counted in the oil-on-water total, has increased nearly 200% in the same period. Within this analysis, crude counted as floating storage is assumed to be on vessels that have moved at less than 1 knot for at least the past 12 days.

Chinese Seaborne Imports Higher in November

China realized a 973 kbd increase in seaborne imports month-over-month ending November. Much of the increase was driven by a near 1,000 kbd rise in imports from Africa and the Middle East. Before November, imports from these two geographical areas had held within a 391 kbd band since the mid-summer.

U.S. Exports to Asia Rise This Week

Week-ending 12/1 realized the largest U.S. export volume (655 kbd) shipped to Asia since late-October. Exports to China and Singapore were particularly strong finishing the week at 286 kbd and 298 kbd respectively.

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Kpler OIL (Iranian Crude Oil Exports)

 

Originally Released on 30 November 2017

Iranian Seaborne Exports Trend Lower

Daily Iranian seaborne exports have trended lower over the past week. According to the 5-day moving average, over the past seven days, daily seaborne exports have fallen 1,192 kbd – a 43% decline. The deterioration in export volumes was largely the result of a decline in loadings at Kharg Island.

Chinese Oil-on-Water Lower this Week

The first two weeks of November realized an increase of 22.66 million barrels in total Chinese oil-on-water. This trend has since reversed. Between 11/21 and 11/30, total Chinese oil-on-water declined 42% to a total of 28.86 million barrels.

Higher Venezuelan Exports to the United States

Following weakness in Venezuelan daily export loadings bound for the United States in early-November, the past 10-days have realized higher export volumes. Between 11/19 and 11/30, daily crude oil shipments leaving Venezuelan shores for the U.S. increased 243 kbd, according to the 5-day moving average.This week Venezuelan President Maduro indicated the possibility of eliminating oil sales to the United States in retaliation against sanctions implemented by Washington earlier this year. His comments came during the formal appointment of General Manuel Quevedo to lead Venezuela’s National Oil Company, PDVSA.

Indian Imports of Iraqi Crude Increase

Daily Indian imports of crude from Iraq have recently realized strong growth. Just over the past seven days alone, India imported a total of 11.41 million barrels of Iraqi crude. This contrasts with the first 14 days of November, which realized Iraqi import loadings into India at less than 7 million barrels.

Canadian Seaborne Export Declines

Daily Canadian seaborne export loadings have declined over the past week following a period of relative strength. Over the past 10-days, the 5-day moving average declined 490 kbd.On 11/21 a load of 590 kbd left Canadian shores towards the United Kingdom – a first since August. This also represented the first non-U.S. export destination since late October when 770 kbd  in crude oil left Canada for Italy.

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Kpler OIL (Exports from Iran)

 

Originally Released on 23 November 2017

Asian Imports of U.S. Crude

Approaching all-time highs

Asia has increasingly looked to the United States as a new origin for crude oil. Week-ending 11/17 realized the second highest U.S. crude import value of all time – 877 kbd arrived in Asia for the week. This continues a strong upward trend over the past 2-weeks.

Asian destinations

South Korea was the largest Asian purchaser for week-ending 11/17, receiving a total volume of 357 kbd through the Yeosu and SK Ulsan ports. Japan received its first shipment of U.S. crude (47.5 kbd) since early June and India received U.S. crude for a fourth week in a row (151 kbd).

Iranian Export Trends

Total Exports Decline

For the first time since April, Iran realized a month-over-month decrease in seaborne oil exports. Between September and October, crude leaving Iranian shores declined by 217 kbd. This followed a three-month uptrend where exports managed to climbed nearly 200 kbd.

Exports to Turkey & India

Iranian exports to Turkey realized a dramatic change in October declining 143 kbd month-over-month – a 51% change. The decrease broke well out of the 36 kbd bounded range established through the first nine months of 2017.Crude volumes leaving Iran towards India have been in a general downtrend for much of 2017. Month-over-month, exports declined 35 kbd and the October Iranian export volume was well below the 550+ kbd levels realized through the first 3-months of 2017

 

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Kpler OIL (Declining Nigerian Exports)

 

Originally Released on 16 November 2017

U.S. Export Volumes Lower in November

For week-ending 11/10, U.S. seaborne exports finished below 1 million barrels. This follows an October that averaged more than 1,600 kbd leaving U.S. ports. Between 10/14 and 10/31 alone, October realized 12 days with loading values above 1,300 kbd. Over the first 10-days of November, there have only been 3 such days.

U.S. Import Volumes Trend Higher

While exports leaving the United States have fallen, U.S. imports have continued to accelerate over the past several weeks. Between weeks-ending 10/27 and 11/10, U.S. import volumes have increased by 495 kbd. This followed week-ending 10/20, the first to realize an import level above 5 million bpd since Hurricane Harvey in late-August.

Nigerian Exports Lower This Week

Nigerian daily export loadings were feeble following a week of strong export volumes. The 3-day moving average spiked in early November, largely resulting from a load of 6,950 kbd that took place on 11/6. Loadings have since tapered off – between 11/8 and 11/15, the 3-day moving average has declined by 3,095 kbd.

Strait of Malacca Oil-on-Water Increases

Oil-on-water on the Strait of Malacca continued to trend higher this week. Between 10/30 and 11/16, the 5-day moving average for oil-on-water increased by 12.4 million barrels. In addition, floating storage (which is also counted as oil-on-water) increased by 83% to 10.5 million barrels. It should be noted that this increase largely came early in November and has since declined marginally. This analysis assumes floating storage as crude on vessels moving at less than 1 knot for at least the past 12 days.

Loadings at Kirkuk Terminal Up Slightly

Oil flowing out of Kirkuk Terminal picked up slightly over the past seven days. Between 11/9 and 11/16, export loadings totaled 1,637 kbd. This was 920 kbd higher than in the previous seven days. There still remain large gaps between loadings and total volume being loaded is still well below historical averages. Terminal disruptions began in mid-October following fighting between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq.

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Kpler OIL (Oil-on-water increase in China)

Originally Released on 9 November 2017

Chinese Oil-on-Water Moves Higher

In late October and early November, total Chinese oil-on-water volumes fell by more than 15 million barrels. This trend has since reversed itself over the course of the last week. Between 11/3 and 11/9, total oil-on-water grew by 10 million barrels – a 43% increase in just 6 days.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Slow Further

The loading situation at Kirkuk Terminal grew worse over the past week. Between 11/2 and 11/9, only one load took place (717 kbd) and there was an unprecedented 6-day gap where no loadings took place at all. This follows two weeks of successively lower levels of crude leaving the port. This all began with fighting in Northern Iraq between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in mid-October.

Daily U.S. Export Loadings Trend Lower

Much of October realized large and consistent daily U.S. export loadings. Week-ending 11/3 broke this upward trend. Only two loading days (10/29 and 10/30) surpassed the 1.5-million-barrel mark…the previous week realized six such days.

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Slowly Increasing

Between 11/1 and 11/5, PADD 3 oil-on-water fell by 13.2 million barrels. This trend has since reversed increasing 4 million barrels over the past 3-days. Most of this oil appears to be moving in and out of the region quite quickly as floating storage remains largely at or below 20% – this is a change from the 30%+ levels realized after Hurricane Harvey.

South Korea Once Again Receiving Crude from China

Between May and August of this year, South Korea stopped receiving shipments of Chinese crude. This was a subtle change from earlier in the year when South Korea was importing an average of 74 kbd from China on a weekly basis. Over the past several weeks, Chinese crude has once again flowed towards South Korea. The next shipment is due to arrive aboard the Ds Venture on November 14th.

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