Kpler OIL (Iranian Crude Oil Exports)

 

Originally Released on 30 November 2017

Iranian Seaborne Exports Trend Lower

Daily Iranian seaborne exports have trended lower over the past week. According to the 5-day moving average, over the past seven days, daily seaborne exports have fallen 1,192 kbd – a 43% decline. The deterioration in export volumes was largely the result of a decline in loadings at Kharg Island.

Chinese Oil-on-Water Lower this Week

The first two weeks of November realized an increase of 22.66 million barrels in total Chinese oil-on-water. This trend has since reversed. Between 11/21 and 11/30, total Chinese oil-on-water declined 42% to a total of 28.86 million barrels.

Higher Venezuelan Exports to the United States

Following weakness in Venezuelan daily export loadings bound for the United States in early-November, the past 10-days have realized higher export volumes. Between 11/19 and 11/30, daily crude oil shipments leaving Venezuelan shores for the U.S. increased 243 kbd, according to the 5-day moving average.This week Venezuelan President Maduro indicated the possibility of eliminating oil sales to the United States in retaliation against sanctions implemented by Washington earlier this year. His comments came during the formal appointment of General Manuel Quevedo to lead Venezuela’s National Oil Company, PDVSA.

Indian Imports of Iraqi Crude Increase

Daily Indian imports of crude from Iraq have recently realized strong growth. Just over the past seven days alone, India imported a total of 11.41 million barrels of Iraqi crude. This contrasts with the first 14 days of November, which realized Iraqi import loadings into India at less than 7 million barrels.

Canadian Seaborne Export Declines

Daily Canadian seaborne export loadings have declined over the past week following a period of relative strength. Over the past 10-days, the 5-day moving average declined 490 kbd.On 11/21 a load of 590 kbd left Canadian shores towards the United Kingdom – a first since August. This also represented the first non-U.S. export destination since late October when 770 kbd  in crude oil left Canada for Italy.

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Kpler OIL (Exports from Iran)

 

Originally Released on 23 November 2017

Asian Imports of U.S. Crude

Approaching all-time highs

Asia has increasingly looked to the United States as a new origin for crude oil. Week-ending 11/17 realized the second highest U.S. crude import value of all time – 877 kbd arrived in Asia for the week. This continues a strong upward trend over the past 2-weeks.

Asian destinations

South Korea was the largest Asian purchaser for week-ending 11/17, receiving a total volume of 357 kbd through the Yeosu and SK Ulsan ports. Japan received its first shipment of U.S. crude (47.5 kbd) since early June and India received U.S. crude for a fourth week in a row (151 kbd).

Iranian Export Trends

Total Exports Decline

For the first time since April, Iran realized a month-over-month decrease in seaborne oil exports. Between September and October, crude leaving Iranian shores declined by 217 kbd. This followed a three-month uptrend where exports managed to climbed nearly 200 kbd.

Exports to Turkey & India

Iranian exports to Turkey realized a dramatic change in October declining 143 kbd month-over-month – a 51% change. The decrease broke well out of the 36 kbd bounded range established through the first nine months of 2017.Crude volumes leaving Iran towards India have been in a general downtrend for much of 2017. Month-over-month, exports declined 35 kbd and the October Iranian export volume was well below the 550+ kbd levels realized through the first 3-months of 2017

 

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Kpler OIL (Declining Nigerian Exports)

 

Originally Released on 16 November 2017

U.S. Export Volumes Lower in November

For week-ending 11/10, U.S. seaborne exports finished below 1 million barrels. This follows an October that averaged more than 1,600 kbd leaving U.S. ports. Between 10/14 and 10/31 alone, October realized 12 days with loading values above 1,300 kbd. Over the first 10-days of November, there have only been 3 such days.

U.S. Import Volumes Trend Higher

While exports leaving the United States have fallen, U.S. imports have continued to accelerate over the past several weeks. Between weeks-ending 10/27 and 11/10, U.S. import volumes have increased by 495 kbd. This followed week-ending 10/20, the first to realize an import level above 5 million bpd since Hurricane Harvey in late-August.

Nigerian Exports Lower This Week

Nigerian daily export loadings were feeble following a week of strong export volumes. The 3-day moving average spiked in early November, largely resulting from a load of 6,950 kbd that took place on 11/6. Loadings have since tapered off – between 11/8 and 11/15, the 3-day moving average has declined by 3,095 kbd.

Strait of Malacca Oil-on-Water Increases

Oil-on-water on the Strait of Malacca continued to trend higher this week. Between 10/30 and 11/16, the 5-day moving average for oil-on-water increased by 12.4 million barrels. In addition, floating storage (which is also counted as oil-on-water) increased by 83% to 10.5 million barrels. It should be noted that this increase largely came early in November and has since declined marginally. This analysis assumes floating storage as crude on vessels moving at less than 1 knot for at least the past 12 days.

Loadings at Kirkuk Terminal Up Slightly

Oil flowing out of Kirkuk Terminal picked up slightly over the past seven days. Between 11/9 and 11/16, export loadings totaled 1,637 kbd. This was 920 kbd higher than in the previous seven days. There still remain large gaps between loadings and total volume being loaded is still well below historical averages. Terminal disruptions began in mid-October following fighting between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq.

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Kpler OIL (Oil-on-water increase in China)

Originally Released on 9 November 2017

Chinese Oil-on-Water Moves Higher

In late October and early November, total Chinese oil-on-water volumes fell by more than 15 million barrels. This trend has since reversed itself over the course of the last week. Between 11/3 and 11/9, total oil-on-water grew by 10 million barrels – a 43% increase in just 6 days.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Slow Further

The loading situation at Kirkuk Terminal grew worse over the past week. Between 11/2 and 11/9, only one load took place (717 kbd) and there was an unprecedented 6-day gap where no loadings took place at all. This follows two weeks of successively lower levels of crude leaving the port. This all began with fighting in Northern Iraq between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in mid-October.

Daily U.S. Export Loadings Trend Lower

Much of October realized large and consistent daily U.S. export loadings. Week-ending 11/3 broke this upward trend. Only two loading days (10/29 and 10/30) surpassed the 1.5-million-barrel mark…the previous week realized six such days.

PADD 3 Oil-on-Water Slowly Increasing

Between 11/1 and 11/5, PADD 3 oil-on-water fell by 13.2 million barrels. This trend has since reversed increasing 4 million barrels over the past 3-days. Most of this oil appears to be moving in and out of the region quite quickly as floating storage remains largely at or below 20% – this is a change from the 30%+ levels realized after Hurricane Harvey.

South Korea Once Again Receiving Crude from China

Between May and August of this year, South Korea stopped receiving shipments of Chinese crude. This was a subtle change from earlier in the year when South Korea was importing an average of 74 kbd from China on a weekly basis. Over the past several weeks, Chinese crude has once again flowed towards South Korea. The next shipment is due to arrive aboard the Ds Venture on November 14th.

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Kpler OIL (OPEC October Exports)

Originally Released on 2 November 2017

OPEC October Exports Remain Nearly Flat

Month-over-month seaborne crude exports for the OPEC organization fell by 203 kbd – a 0.8% decrease. Saudi realized the largest month-over-month gain, adding 368 kbd in seaborne exports for October while Nigeria realized the largest decline at 352 kbd.

U.S. Daily Import Loadings Trend Slightly Lower

For EIA week-ending 10/20, U.S. seaborne import flows surpassed 5 million bpd for the first time in more than 2-months. Daily seaborne oil import flows have since indicated a slightly downward trend. Between 10/20 and 10/30, the 5-day moving average fell by 2,759 kbd – a 49% decrease. The moving average has recovered slightly over the past 2 days.

PADD 3 Congestion Continues

PADD 3 congestion remains an ongoing problem. Floating storage, which in this case assumes crude volumes on vessels that have moved at less than 1 knot for at least the past 10-days, spiked following the 5 million bpd import level for EIA week-ending 10/20. This also coincides with a 4-week period that has averaged 1.7 million bpd in exports leaving PADD 3. Daily floating storage has managed to fall over the past 3-days back to levels seen earlier in October.

World Oil-on-Water Continues to Trend Higher

World oil-on-water has consistently trended higher since mid-October. Between 10/13 and 11/2, oil-on-water increased by 118 kbd – a 13% increase in just 20 days.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Remain Depressed

For the second week in a row, daily loadings at Kirkuk Terminal remain weak. Since 10/21, the 5-day moving average has fluctuated within a range between 90 kbd and 341 kbd. This is well below the bounded loading range in early October, before fighting broke out in northern Iraq between Baghdad and the Kurdish Peshmerga interrupting oil production operations in the Kirkuk region.

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Kpler OIL (Kirkuk Terminal Loadings)

Originally Released on 26 October 2017

World Oil-On-Water Increases

Over the past seven days, world oil-on-water has steadily increased to 983 million barrels – an 8% increase over the period. In addition, four days in the past week all realized day-over-day oil-on-water increases of at least 1%.

PADD 3 Oil-On-Water Spikes Higher

Following a week of relatively lower oil-on-water volume, PADD 3 is once again inundated with crude. Since October 19th, total oil-on-water has increased 7.2 million barrels. Floating storage as a percentage of oil-on-water has also moved back to a range near 20%.

Basrah Loadings Hold Steady

Earlier this week, the Iraqi central government announced that they would be increasing the volume of crude being loaded for export at the Al Basrah Terminal, located in the Persian Gulf, as a result of fighting in the northern Kirkuk region of Iraq. Such increases have not yet readily materialized. Since 10/17, the 7-day moving average has held steady within a range of 3,000 and 4,000 kbd – this is little changed from loadings earlier in October. An unusually large load of 8,152 kbd on 10/26 has broken the horizontal trend slightly.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Remain Depressed

Fighting between the Iraqi government and the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) continues to hamper Kirkuk Terminal loadings. Over the past seven days, a total of 1,480 kbd has been loaded (average of 211 kbd for the week). This is well below the average weekly volume of 587 kbd seen through the first two weeks of October.

U.S. Imports Show Strength for Week-Ending 10/20

U.S. import levels signal a return to normality following a damaging hurricane season. For the first time since the week of 8/18, imports finished above 5,000 kbd. Notice the substantial import dip in early September resulting from Hurricane Harvey.

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Kpler OIL (Kirkuk Crude Oil Disruptions)

Originally Released on 19 October

Kirkuk Crude Oil Disruptions

Fighting in northern Iraq between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad continues today as production disruptions persist within the Kirkuk region. Iraqi governmental forces have so far managed to take control of all major Kirkuk producing fields – Bai Hassan, Avanah, Baba Dome, Khabbaz and Jambur.Oil production from the Kirkuk region flows to the port of Ceyhan, in Turkey, through a pipeline presently controlled by the KRG. Historically, the Iraqi government has shared space on the pipeline. While the government of Iraq is claiming that all fields are producing normally, KPLER data indicates possible loading delays at the Kirkuk Oil Terminal, which is part of the broader Ceyhan Port Complex.

Examining daily October crude loading volumes from the Kirkuk Terminal reveals that a loading gap of two or more days is rare. Such a gap occurred only once in October before fighting began in northern Iraq. It also appears that most loads were over 700,000 barrels for the month so far – this trend does not hold for the loading on 10/17 (328 kbd).

PADD 3 Oil-On-Water Continues to Decline

PADD 3 oil-on-water has been an ongoing story for several weeks following disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey in late-August and Hurricane Nate a couple weeks ago. Between last Friday, 10/13 and today, 10/19, total oil-on-water declined by 10.6 million barrels and floating storage as a percentage of oil-on-water remains staunchly below 20%. This analysis assumes floating storage as crude on vessels moving at less than 1 knot for at least the past 10-days.

Indian Purchases of U.S. Crude Accelerate

2017 has been a period of remarkable change when examining crude oil trade flows. India is a prime example – the South Asian nation has been testing the viability of U.S. crude through several key shipments to a variety of different refineries including Mundra, Jamnagar, Paradip and Kochi. Up until this year, U.S. crude was almost never shipped to India.Indian purchases of U.S. crude have shown strength as of late. India has imported 3 million barrels in the month of October alone and an additional 1 million barrels is expected by the end of the month. This represents a stark change from the first nine-months of the year, which only saw 1.5 million barrels in total delivered to India.

 

World Oil-On-Water Rises Slightly for the Week

Total oil-on-water volume has increased slightly over the past week. Between 10/13 and 10/19, total oil-on-water rose 5.2% to 936 million barrels. It does appear that the upward trend has flattened out over the past three days, remaining with a bounded range of 3 million barrels.

Chinese Imports Up Week-Over-Week

Examining daily loading rates into China reveals soft import volumes early in the week with a trend reversal beginning on Wednesday, October 18th . KPLER data currently indicates that delivered crude cargoes into China total approximately 8,400 kbd for the week-starting 10/16 – a 25% increase week-over-week.

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