Kpler Crude Oil (European Crude Imports)

Originally Released on 20 April 2017
European slate
European refining network has seen its slate substantially modified in the last year. Events like Iran coming back to the European market created crude substitutions in many refineries. Below, main trends of European supply over the last year.
Middle-East
As mentioned above, Iran has significantly increased the barrels sent to Europe in 2016. With many majors resuming purchases of Iranian crude, European imports of these grades passed from 17 kbd in Jan 2016 to 850 kbd in March 2017. Most part of these imports came to MED refineries, but a non-negligible portion came also to NWE refining system. Middle-Eastern crude supply increased by  around 1 mmbpd between January 2016 and January 2017.
European crude imports from Middle East and Egypt**

**Import from Egypt are mainly Middle-East grades coming from Sidi Kerir

West Africa

WAF crude supply to Europe has significantly decreased in a year-to-year basis. We observed a drop of almost 400 kbd between January 2016 and March 2017 (1337 kbd vs 904 kbd). Clov was one of the most impacted grades with no cargos arriving to Europe in March.
European imports from West Africa – split by grades – kbd
North Sea & MED
Supply coming from MED and North Sea has also increased by around 600 kbd year-to-year in March. In particular, we’ve seen increasing quantities of CPC and Libyan crude flowing to NWE, as shown in the chart below :

North West Europe imports from MED – split by origin installation – kbd
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Kpler Crude Oil (Historical record imports to China)

Originally Released on 13 April 2017

Asian imports – March

Chinese customs released March import figures and reported an historical record high that reached 9.2 mmbpd (+1.3 mmbpd vs Feb). Kpler reported 9 mmbpd (+1.2 mmbpd vs Feb) a few weeks ago.

China, India, Japan and South Korea reported a combined jump on imports of approx 1.6 mmbpd, attaining 19.6 mmbpd of combined imports, as shown in the chart below:

China, India, Japan and South Korea imports – kbd

Forties and Ekofisk – VLCCs

CPC
CPC March exports reached record high volumes. The terminal exported 38,990,365 barrels (1258 kbd) of crude oil in March, according to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Kpler reported 1224 kbd for the same period.
Shipments heading toward Netherlands increased significantly (+104 MtM and +73 YtY) as shown in the chart below:
CPC exports – split by destination country
  • Volumes shipped to Asia remained high at 137 kbd, slightly below February levels (143 kbd).
CPC exports to Asia – split by country of destination – kbd
  • April market data shows that at least one CPC shipment will head towards Asia. Suezmax Vilamoura was fixed by Listasco for a CPC/India voyage. She’s currently loading her cargo at CPC SPM.

US exports

US exports week-ending 04/14 are likely to remain at the same level  than exports week-ending 04/07. Kpler showed 641 kbd US exports for week-ending 04/07 (vs 689 kbd reported by EIA). Exports for week-ending 04/14 reached 676 kbd on Thursday 04/13, according to our data.

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Kpler Crude Oil (Low levels of Oil-On-Water in PADD 3)

Originally Released on 6 April 2017

US exports – February & March
Data released by U.S. Census Bureau reported that US crude exports attained 1.1 million barrels per day in February. It represents an increase of 370 kbd compared to January, according to this source. Kpler recorded an increase of +363 kbd in US exports compared to January.
Below, Kpler’s US export figures to Asia, LatAmCaribbean & Europe in February and March:
**Asia (unspecified for now) aggregates shipments that did not signal a final destination yet (signaling Singapore)
Highlights
  • Exports to Asia were particularly high in February, reaching almost 500 kbd
  • Kpler data shows a slight decrease of about 123 kbd in March on US exports compared to February (-100 kbd to Asia)
  • April has already seen one 2 vessels that will be carrying crude to Asia:

 

US imports week-ending 4/07

Below, some facts that could give an outlook of US imports week-ending 4/07:

  • US total imports week-ending 4/07 reached 26 mmbbls until Thursday 4/06 13:00 Houston time, which is 6.7 mmbbls below imports observed by Kpler week-ending 3/31.
  • PADD 3 Oil-on-water, which aggregates all crude loaded in vessels in the main USGC anchorages, has shown particularly low levels compared with historical data. Potential supply for the coming days/coming week could be directly impacted.
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Kpler Oil (OPEC & Russia exports)

Originally rleased on 30 March 2017
March OPEC & Russia exports
Kpler released preliminary OPEC March exports on March 29th announcing a 1.18 mmbpd decrease in combined OPEC exports. However, a non-negligible part seems to be a consequence of temporary events (see details below), which could result in the same barrels coming back to the markets in a near future . Moreover, OPEC supply decrease was partially offset by Russian exports increase, which attained 4702 kbd in March (+264 kbd vs Feb), the highest exports recorded in our data since January 2016. Below, a summary table containing export figures for OPEC countries and Russia:
OPEC & Russia preliminary exports – Oct-16, Jan-17, Feb-17 and Mar-17
Angelina  Rascouet  –  Bloomberg:.
“Iran, which was permitted to increase output in last year’s supply deal, led the declines with a drop in exports of 416,000 barrels a day to 2.185 million, according to cargo data compiled by Paris-based Kpler. Nigeria and Libya — exempt from the agreement — reduced shipments by a combined 209,000 barrels a day. The United Arab Emirates showed the first significant export drop since the accord came into force in January, with a reduction of 220,000 barrels a day.”
Below, a few insights on our data:
  • Iran:  –416 kbd drop.
    • some 135 kbd reduction came directly from crude shipments decrease
    • some 120 kbd came from an increased refinery intake of local crude at Bandar Abbas, which resulted  in less crude going to the international market
    • some 155 kbd reduction concerned condensate (Assaluyeh & South Pars terminals)

  • Nigeria & Libya: -210 kbd combined drop
    • Nigeria decreased as a consequence of Bonga FPSO shut-down, with some other minor shifts for the rest of production fields
    • Libyan exports dropped mainly due to supply disruption in Mellitah

  • UAE: First significant drop on exports was observed in March, -220 kbd compared to Feb
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Kpler Crude Oil (Floating Storage)

Originally Released on 23 March 2017

Floating storage

Global floating storage

Floating storage significantly decreased over the last few months as expected after OPEC and non-OPEC agreement. Our data shows that floating storage attained 77 million barrels early December dropping to 39 million barrels on Mar.22 as shown in below:
North Sea floating storage

However, some regions have seen floating storage increase over last weeks. One of those regions is North Sea, where floating storage passed from to 8.6 MMbbls, which is the level of floating storage observed early January 2017 in the region. Vessels floating without a destination are:

With only BFOE grades, floating storage reaches 7.7 MMbbls. 

WAF floating storage

WAF floating storage remains stable between 4 to 5 million barrels in average since early January as shown below in our daily floating storage (since Nov 2016):

 

Iran floating storage

Iran finished clearing their remaining floating storage in March. Floating storage in Iran was at 9 million barrels on March 1st, and dropped to 3.28 million barrels on March 23. For record, Iran this value attained close to 40 million barrels in October 2016:

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Kpler Crude Oil (CPC Exports to Asia)

Originally Released on 16 March 2017

OPEC exports
OPEC’s March report showed significant discrepancies for Saudi Arabia February production between direct communication and secondary source numbers (-68 kbd vs Jan according to secondary sources, +263 vs Jan based on direct communication).In the export side, our data shows that Saudi Arabia slightly decreased their supply to the international markets. Feb exports were 96 kbd lower than Jan exports.

Below,  OPEC, Russia and Oman exports for Jan and Feb compared to a 15-day average for March as an outlook of March exports:

 

Latest US exports
British Vantage did not signaled any destination yet

 

CPC to Asia

Last month saw CPC cargos to Asia reached very high levels, close to 200 kbd. Our data shows that many tankers already loaded and signaled a final destinations in Asia. Moreover, according to data, other cargoes were already fixed for CPC/Asia voyages in March:


CPC monthly exports to Asia (kbd)

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Kpler Crude Oil (Low floating storage in North Sea)

Originally Released on 9 March 2017

Floating storage
North SeaFloating storage in the North Sea remained low compared to previous weeks. Our data shows that only 2 vessels are waiting as floating storage in the North Sea:

  • VLCC Trikwong Venture and Aframax Primero which loaded at Hound Point on Feb.23 and Jan.24 respectively.
  • Trikwong Venture is waiting in Dumbarton Bay. She was expected to head towards South Korea, chartered by Trafigura.
  • Primero has not signaled any destination, but moved recently towards continental Europe where she might be waiting to discharge.
  • British Robin loaded Ekofisk in Teesside on Mar.4 and has been waiting since without signaling any destination.  She is not counted in our values of floating storage since she has been waiting for less than 10 days.
North Sea floating storage: Trikwong Venture (left) and Primero (right)

Trikwong Venture and Primero added volumes reach 2.6 million barrels of  Forties floating storage in the North Sea, far from the values observed early Feb (around 6-7 mmbbls) and December which attained 12 million barrels. Below, our daily floating floating storage since Dec.10:

WAF

WAF floating storage remained close to the same levels observed over the last 2 months, around 4 million barrels. However, we saw seen some movement concerning WAF grades clearing from storage:

  • VLCC Millennium left Cape Verde where she had been waiting since November 2016. She received 2 million barrels of Qua Iboe from C. Prosperity on on Nov.7 via ship-to-ship at Lome anchorage. She signaled Finnart ETA Mar.10.
  • Qua Iboe cargos were said to be offered with Saldanha terminal as loading point. According to our data, this terminal received 8 Suezmax shipments of Qua Iboe in 2016:
Qua Iboe shipment to Saldhanha terminal
  • VLCC Kondor, which is ballast, signaled Saldanha ETA Mar.9 but might be heading towards another destination:

Interesting moves

VLCC Universal Brave loaded 2 million barrels of Yemenite crude oil at Ash Shihr on Feb.24.  It is the first large shipment since November 2016. She is heading towards Asia  chartered by ST Shipping & Transport.

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