Originally Released on 24 August 2017
North West Europe
High levels of BFOE floating storage have finally begun to clear towards Asia and provide supply for local demand. Currently, there are 6.6 million barrels of BFOE crude oil floating on the North Sea, down from 12 million barrels 2 weeks ago.
Southwold anchorage is now host to 4 VLCCs: two fully loaded and two others partially loaded at 1.6 million barrels and 366,000 barrels, respectively.
Diminished loadings of Forties at Hound Point in August have helped to reduce North Sea crude surplus. Only 1 VLCC and 3 Aframax vessels loaded at the terminal since the beginning of the month (4 VLCCs and 3 Aframax loaded in July, which was the lowest level of 2017).
Hound Point loadings – kbd
Urals supply from the Baltics is expected to increase following 3 consecutive months of reductions resulting from pipeline maintenance. Exports from Primorsk and Ust decreased from 1,884 kbd in April to 1,402 kbd in July. Total exports volumes in August are expected at 1,508 kbd – a total of 255 kbd remains scheduled according to AIS and Fixture data:
Expected loadings at Primorsk and Ust-Luga – August
Libyan exports are expected to remain nearly flat at a sustained level despite the Al-Sharara oil field outage. Exports continue to be boosted by Ras Lanuf, Zueitina and Es Sider terminals, offsetting the reduced number of shipments observed in Zawiya terminal.
Libyan exports – split by origin instalaltion – kbd
CPC exports in August are expected to end the month significantly below July levels at 806 kbd, down from 1,100 kbd in July according to our predictive model and observations of unusually lower tanker activity outside the terminal.
A strengthening Hurricane Harvey is expected to impact the coast of Southeast Texas with strong winds and torrential rain over the next 3 to 6 days. The Flint Hills and CITGO Refineries as well as the Magellan Marine Terminal, all of which are located in Corpus Christi, have been closed in anticipation of the storm. Further closures are possible and likely as the storm draws nearer to the Texas coast.