Kpler OIL (Declining Nigerian Exports)

 

Originally Released on 16 November 2017

U.S. Export Volumes Lower in November

For week-ending 11/10, U.S. seaborne exports finished below 1 million barrels. This follows an October that averaged more than 1,600 kbd leaving U.S. ports. Between 10/14 and 10/31 alone, October realized 12 days with loading values above 1,300 kbd. Over the first 10-days of November, there have only been 3 such days.

U.S. Import Volumes Trend Higher

While exports leaving the United States have fallen, U.S. imports have continued to accelerate over the past several weeks. Between weeks-ending 10/27 and 11/10, U.S. import volumes have increased by 495 kbd. This followed week-ending 10/20, the first to realize an import level above 5 million bpd since Hurricane Harvey in late-August.

Nigerian Exports Lower This Week

Nigerian daily export loadings were feeble following a week of strong export volumes. The 3-day moving average spiked in early November, largely resulting from a load of 6,950 kbd that took place on 11/6. Loadings have since tapered off – between 11/8 and 11/15, the 3-day moving average has declined by 3,095 kbd.

Strait of Malacca Oil-on-Water Increases

Oil-on-water on the Strait of Malacca continued to trend higher this week. Between 10/30 and 11/16, the 5-day moving average for oil-on-water increased by 12.4 million barrels. In addition, floating storage (which is also counted as oil-on-water) increased by 83% to 10.5 million barrels. It should be noted that this increase largely came early in November and has since declined marginally. This analysis assumes floating storage as crude on vessels moving at less than 1 knot for at least the past 12 days.

Loadings at Kirkuk Terminal Up Slightly

Oil flowing out of Kirkuk Terminal picked up slightly over the past seven days. Between 11/9 and 11/16, export loadings totaled 1,637 kbd. This was 920 kbd higher than in the previous seven days. There still remain large gaps between loadings and total volume being loaded is still well below historical averages. Terminal disruptions began in mid-October following fighting between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq.

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Kpler LNG (Yari LNG Diversion)

Originally Released on 16 November 2017

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Trafigura’s Golar Tundra reloaded at Montoir on 26-October and is now expected to discharge in the Far East.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris reloaded at Montoir on 4-November and is about to cross the Suez Canal, ETA 16-November.

Shell’s Methane Nile Eagle reloaded at Fos Cavaou on 8-November and is now anchored offshore of Kalamata, Greece.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

Shell’s Methane Alison Victoria loaded at Atlantic LNG on 12-November and is now headed towards Elba Island, ETA 17-November.

Diversion Alert: Cheniere’s Yari LNG lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 3-November and was initially headed towards Gibraltar. The vessel changed her route on 10-November and is now making her laden voyage towards the Cape of Good Hope with no clear destination.

Cheniere’s Creole Spirit loaded at Sabine Pass on 8-November and was signalling on 9-November for Aliaga ETA 27-November, although her last three signals are “TBC” (To Be Checked). Meanwhile, Total’s Sk Audace loaded at Sabine Pass on 9-November and is also signalling for Aliaga, ETA 27-November. Her AIS signals remain the same.

RasGas’ Wilforce lifted a backhaul cargo at Ras Laffan on 11-November and is now making her laden voyage towards the terminal, ETA 29-November.

Jera’s Pacific Eurus lifted the second project’s cargo at Wheatstone on 11-November and will discharge at Futtsu, ETA 26-November.

Cheniere’s Clean Ocean loaded at Sabine Pass on 31-October and is currently waiting to discharge at Manzanillo, ETA 16-November.

Botas’ newbuild MOL FSRU Challenger loaded at Ras Laffan on 2-November and arrived first offshore of Dortyol where she was floating for 2 days. Now the vessel is headed towards Aliaga, ETA 17-November.

Sonatrach’s Lalla Fatma N’Soumer loaded at Bethioua and is now delivering to the Middle East.

Shell’s newbuild Murex is now loading her maiden cargo at QCLNG.

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Kpler U.S. Gas (Panama Canal Crossings)

Originally Released on 15 November 2017

US MARKET

SABINE PASS INVENTORIES 

This week we observe a stable average send-in level of 2.77 Bcf/d.

 

SABINE PASS: LINE UP 

Currently, Shell’s Valencia Knutsen and LNG Finima Ii are loading at the terminal. This is the first load of LNG Finima Ii at a terminal other than Bonny since her construction. Eleven vessels are expected to arrive in the next few weeks:

 

ELIGIBLE VESSELS FOR SABINE PASS

There are several ballast vessels heading towards the Americas with no clear destination:

Hoegh Giant

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

Shell’s Methane Alison Victoria loaded at Atlantic LNG on 12-November and is now headed towards Elba Island, ETA 17-November.

Cheniere’s Kita LNG loaded at Sabine Pass on 20-October and was initially signalling for Rayong MTP. Instead, the vessel crossed the Mediterranean Sea and is currently discharging at Aqaba.

 

Cheniere’s Creole Spirit loaded at Sabine Pass on 8-November and was signalling on 9-November for Aliaga ETA 27-November, although her last three signals are “TBC” (To Be Checked). Meanwhile, Total’s Sk Audace loaded at Sabine Pass on 9-November and is also signalling for Aliaga, ETA 27-November. Her AIS signals remain the same.

 

Cheniere’s Clean Ocean loaded at Sabine Pass on 31-October and is currently waiting to discharge at Manzanillo, ETA 16-November.

Shell’s Gaslog Glasgow is expected to deliver her Sabine Pass cargo to Ningbo, ETA 4-December.

 

PANAMA CANAL TRANSIT

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Kpler LPG (Growth of Iraqi LPG Exports)

Originally Released on 16 November 2017

Vessels
Americas
This week no vessels are expected to head to FE via Cape of Good Hope.
Geogas’ JS Ineos Intrepid, ex-Kaarsto, discharged her cargo at Tallaboa, Caribs.

 

Middle East

Busy Line-for M.E. as the Gulf producers try to take advantage of the higher seasonal demand of FE in the following months. Six VLGCs are expected to lift a cargo out of Persian Gulf (PG) during the 2H of November:
Europe
Captain Nicholas ML, ex-Kaarstoe, discharged her cargo at Aygas Izmit. She is being fixed again to load a cargo out of N.Sea, probably at Kaarstoe (charterer Statoil).
Geogas’ Cratis, ex-Marcus Hook, is signalling for Gibraltar, ETA 23-Nov.
British Councillor, ex-Kaarstoe, is currently discharging her cargo at Petgaz Dortyol.
Petredec’s George N, ex-Targa, is heading to deliver her cargo at Mohammedia, ETA 21-Nov.
Asia
Petredec’s Bw Malacca, ex- Enterprise and Jose is heading to discharge the rest of her cargo at Teluk Semangka, ETA 21-Nov. This is the second cargo out of US to Indonesia in November. 

Australia

Astomos’ Legend Prestige, ex-Westernport, is heading to discharge at Chiba area, ETA 25-Nov.

Interesting STS

Petredec’s vessels interesting activity: Clipper Quito performed a STS with Morston offshore Chorrillo. The first crossed the Panama Canal and is heading to USGC, while the latter is expected to discharge her cargo at Chorrillo.

Shell’s Sea Bird is currently discharging part of her cargo at Male Anchorage via STS with Shell’s Lubara.

Geogas’ Karoline N is heading to Ocoa Bay Anchorage to discharge her cargo via STS with Bw Gemini, ETA 18-Nov.

Diversion Alerts

Originally signalling for Panama Canal, Shell’s Comet changed her destination and is now crossing the Atlantic Ocean. Her exact destination is yet to be confirmed.

Originally fixed by Shell to deliver a cargo out of Persian Gulf, Pampero deviated and is now signalling for USGC, ETA 12-Dec

 

Iraq boosting its LPG Exports

Iraq exported its first LPG cargoes last July, after becoming self-sufficient in LPG with a production at 5,000 mt/d. Since then it has been seeking to become a regular global supplier.
Kpler data reveal that Iraq has made a total of 63 shipments of LPG so far this year, with a total of 127 kt of LPG. During the summer months, exports were significantly boosted reaching 30kt in September.

Improved infrastructures the main driver behind the boost

The upgrade at the Khor al-Zubair port has been the main driver of improved Iraq’s flexibility for importing and exporting products.
Looking at the Kpler data for monthly exports -breakdown by origin installations- 25 LPG cargoes were lifted from the new loading platforms at Khor al-Zubair port by Basra Gas Co., a joint venture of Shell, Mitsubishi and the oil ministry’s South Gas Co. The rest were lifted from Umm Qasr installation.

The Iraqi Government hopes to turn the port of Khor Al-Zubair into a major commercial center for the Persian Gulf. To achieve this, the port was further developed by modernizing its berths, building storage tanks and a pipeline network for oil derivatives. In addition, the channel was further dredged to increase its depth to 12 meters from 7, thus allowing vessels of up to 40kt to reach the port.

 

 

Where is the Iraqi LPG headed?

All Iraqi trades were done with SGC vessels that have loaded their cargo either at Khor Al-Zubair or Umm Qasr. Kpler data reveal that Pakistan is almost the only buyer of the LPG, while twice a cargo had been delivered to Yemen.
Looking at the Persian Gulf monthly exports to Pakistan, Iraq’s share has grown considerably over the past few months. Currently. the volumes exported are in competition with Iranian exports.

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Kpler EU Gas Weekly (Gas Send-out levels)

Originally Released on 16 November 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

NORTH-WEST EUROPE 
South Hook
The terminal is expecting the following vessels to arrive:Qatargas’ Al Karaana, ETA 3-December. The vessel is currently loading at Ras Laffan.
Qatargas’ Bu Samra, ETA 13-December. She is now ballasting towards Ras Laffan, ETA 26-November.
Qatargas’ Al Ghashamiya, ETA 20-December. The vessel discharged at MAAGP on 13-November and is expected to load at Ras Laffan.

Initially, Al Ghashamiya was expected to arrive on 3-December and Al Karaana on 20-December. A swap potentially took place, so we kindly advice to add the vessels to your Watchlist to monitor the situation.

Gate

Trafigura’s Adam LNG reloaded at the terminal on 25-October and is now headed towards MAAGP via the Cape of Good Hope, ETA 30-November.

Zeebrugge
Engie’s Gdf Suez Point Fortin loaded at Snohvit on 27-October and is expected to discharge a small volume at Zeebrugge on 18-November. The vessel then will head towards Hazira to deliver the rest of the cargo, ETA 19-December.

RasGas’ Wilforce lifted a backhaul cargo at Ras Laffan on 11-November and is now making her laden voyage towards the terminal, ETA 29-November.

Total’s Arctic Lady is still expected at Zeebrugge with her Ras Laffan-sourced cargo, ETA 17-November.

Dunkerque
RasGas’ Al Dafna loaded at Ras Laffan on 1-November and is expected to deliver her cargo on 19-November.

 

Montoir

Trafigura’s Golar Tundra reloaded on 26-October and is now expected to discharge in the Far East.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris reloaded on 4-November and is about to cross the Suez Canal, ETA 16-November.

Fos Cavaou
Shell’s Methane Nile Eagle reloaded at the terminal on 8-November and is now anchored offshore of Kalamata, Greece.

 

SOUTH-EAST EUROPE 

Turkey

Cheniere’s Creole Spirit loaded at Sabine Pass on 8-November and was signalling on 9-November for Aliaga ETA 27-November, although her last three signals are “TBC” (To Be Checked). Meanwhile, Total’s Sk Audace loaded at Sabine Pass on 9-November and is also signalling for Aliaga, ETA 27-November. Her AIS signals remain the same.

Botas’ MOL FSRU Challenger loaded at Ras Laffan on 2-November and arrived first offshore of Dortyol where she was floating for 2 days. Now the vessel is headed towards Aliaga, ETA 17-November.

Rovigo
Currently, four vessels are expected to arrive in the next few days:RasGas’ Simaisma, ETA 16-November
RasGas’ Al Thakhira, ETA 21-November
RasGas’ Al Daayen, ETA 13-November
RasGas’ Umm Bab, ETA 30-November

 

TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR

RasGas’ Al Deebel loaded at Ras Laffan on 7-November and is now signalling for the Suez Canal, ETA 22-November with no clear destination.

 

RAS LAFFAN
Liftings at Ras Laffan slightly decreased in Week 45. Top 5 destinations for W45 appeared: South Korea 0.34 Mt, Japan 0.15 Mt, Turkey 0.10 Mt, Kuwait 0.08 Mt, France 0.07 Mt. The majority of vessels headed towards the Far East. Currently, 5 vessels are loading at the plant.

 

STOCK & SEND-OUT

At South Hook, we observed stable average send-out level of 124 GWh/d this week. Historical inventories are sourced directly from the operators. We observed suspiciously looking data for South Hook and Dragon from 13-November. Kpler analysts expect the data to be corrected before the end of the week.


European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).
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Kpler LPG (Increasing Japan LPG Imports)

Originally Released on 9 November 2017

Vessels
Americas
This week, we are witnessing 3 VLGCs heading to FE via Cape of Good Hope:
  • Geogas’ Jia Yuan, ex-Marcus Hook, signalling for Chita, ETA 12-Dec.
  • Petredec’s Yamabuki , ex-Nederland, signalling for Durban, ETA 24-Nov.
  • Shell’s Pacific Hong Kong, ex-Nederland, signalling for SGP Area, ETA 8-Dec.
Above: vessels heading to FE through COGH, instead of Panama Canal
Nadeshiko Gas has finally finished her load, ex- Ferndale, and is now signalling for South Korea, ETA 16-Nov.
Trafigura’s Waregem, ex-Pajaritos, is heading to discharge at Mohammedia, ETA 9-Nov.
Itochu’s Gas Zenith, ex-Enterprise, is crossing the Panama Canal to deliver her maiden cargo to FE. She is expected at FE on 23-Dec.
Petredec’s Bw Malacca, ex-Jose and Enterprise is currently discharging part of her cargo at Petredec Mauritius terminal.

Middle East

SK Gas’ G. Forever, ex-Yanbu, is heading to discharge at Kalbut, ETA 14-Nov.
TSW’s Gas Taurus, ex-Al Ruwais, is expected to discharge her cargo at Indonesia, ETA 17-Nov.
Europe
The VLGC Pacific Weihai arrived at Hammerfest, ETA 7-Nov.
Shell’s Sansovino, ex Kaarsto, completed a partial discharge in Aygaz Izmit and is now heading to discharge the rest of her cargo at Dortyol, ETA 7-Nov.

 

Australia

BP’s Clermont, ex-NWS, is heading to discharge her cargo at Taiwan, ETA 14-Nov.

Africa

Pacific Binzhou was fixed by BP to deliver a cargo out of Soyo. She is expected to load at Soyo on 21-Nov.

Cresques was fixed by Geogas to deliver a cargo out of Bonny, loading ETA 26-Nov.

Aquamarine Progress was fixed by Sahara to deliver a cargo out of Escravos, loading ETA 21-Nov.

Interesting STS

Geogas’ Clipper Moon, ex-Enterprise, is expected to discharge her cargo again via STS with Bw Gemini at Ocoa Bay Anchorage. ETA 10-Nov.

Shell’s Sinndar, ex-Nederland, is signalling for Male anchorage, ETA 28-Nov. She is expected to discharge part of her cargo again via STS with Lubara.

Newbuilds

Newbuild Mont Fort left the Korean Shipyard and is now heading to Panama Canal. She is relet to Gunvor for a 10 year-TC.

Diversion Alerts

Originally signalling for Panama Canal, Flopec’s Clipper Victory changed her destination and is now heading to Terneuzen, ETA 15-Nov.

Originally signalling for Fujairah, BW’s Bw Loyalty updated her AIS signal and is now heading to Nederland US, ETA 7-Dec.

 

Increase of Japanese LPG imports
In September, strong global Oil prices boosted the LPG prices and the naphtha crack spread had gradually widened, therefore making CFR Japan Propane costlier than naphtha. As producers in Europe and Asia tend to switch feedstocks based on cracking margins, Japanese LPG imports experienced a drop of 40% MoM in September to 451 Kt, the lowest value in 2017, based on Kpler data. This figure proves that LPG continued to yield less favourable cracking economics relative to naphtha.
As winter approaches, the slowdown in September questioned the efficiency of the Asian inventories to meet heating and cooking demand ahead. However, the strong figure of 986 Kt in October is expected to eliminate much of the shortfall in Japan and Asian Inventories.

Kpler data reveal that the total demand in Far East steadily increased from August onward. In October, demand was higher by 425 Kt m/m, at 3885 Kt, suggesting a trend towards stronger demand relative to the first half of 2017.
Looking at the monthly imports of the 3 top Far East Importers, China helped sustaining the FE imports to the current levels as Japanese and S.Korean demand dropped.

 


 

Forward looking, Indonesia and Iran LPG talks for 2018

Indonesia’s Pertamina will start official discussions with NIOC this week for the renewal of their term LPG import contract for 2018 supplies. The original contract consisted of a 600,000 mt of LPG to be delivered over 2016-2017 in 14 cargoes.

Kpler data reveal that since the delivery of the first 44,000 mt evenly split propane/butane parcel in Oct-2016, there have been 12 cargo shipments. The current level of Iranian exports to Indonesia are approximately 550,000 mt, a figure close to the original agreement. (November import numbers are subject to change as Kpler is closely monitoring the daily market).Separator LineSeparator Line

Kpler LNG (Focus on Yamal LNG)

Originally Released on 9 November 2017

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Centrica’s Cool Voyager reloaded at Grain on 7-November where she was berthed for 4 days. Now the vessel is headed towards China, ETA 10-December.

Trafigura’s Adam LNG reloaded at Gate on 25-October and is now headed towards MAAGP via the Cape of Good Hope, ETA 30-November.

Trafigura’s Golar Tundra reloaded at Montoir on 26-October and is now crossing the Red Sea with no clear destination.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris reloaded at Montoir on 4-November and is signalling for the Suez Canal, ETA 16-November.

Shell’s Methane Nile Eagle is now reloading at Fos Cavaou. The vessel is expected to deliver to Ain Sokhna, ETA 11-November.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

Diversion: Cheniere’s Kita LNG loaded at Sabine Pass on 20-October and was initially signalling for Rayong MTP, ETA 14-November. The destination has been cancelled which is confirmed by her AIS, and the vessel is currently floating in the Mediterranean Sea.

Chevron’s Asia Venture loaded the first project’s cargo at Wheatstone on 16-October and is now making her laden voyage towards Futtsu, ETA 9-November. Also, two vessels are expected to load at the terminal in the new few days: Pacific Eurus, ETA 10-November, and Grace Barleria, ETA 19-November.

Engie’s Gdf Suez Point Fortin loaded at Snohvit on 27-October and is expected to discharge a small volume at Zeebrugge on 18-November. The vessel then will head towards Hazira to deliver the rest of the cargo, ETA 19-December.

RasGas’ Al Dafna loaded at Ras Laffan on 1-November and is confirmed to deliver her cargo to Dunkerque on 19-November.

Gas Natural’s Pskov loaded at Sabine Pass on 6-November and is now making her laden voyage towards Barcelona, ETA 20-November.

Altamira is now expecting three tender cargoes from Bonny aboard:
Shell’s Gaslog Santiago, ETA 16-November
NLNG’s LNG Bayelsa, ETA 25-November
Shell’s Maran Gas Ulysses, ETA 3-December

Eni’s Al Marrouna lifted a cargo at Idku and is currently discharging at Dahej.

Botas’ newbuild MOL FSRU Challenger loaded at Ras Laffan on 2-November and is now headed towards Dortyol where she will be set as a FSRU unit, ETA 16-November.

 

YAMAL LNG

Yamal LNG’s Christophe De Margerie arrived at the Yamal berth on 7-November and is currently waiting to load the first project’s cargo.

Yamal LNG’s Boris Vilkitsky has been delivered and is now signalling for Yamal, ETA 25-November. The vessel is now crossing the Bering Sea:

Another project’s vessel, Yamal LNG’s Fedor Litke has been also delivered and is now expected to stop at Nahodka, Russia before heading towards the terminal.

Fluxys LNG is currently at the last stage of constructing their fifth LNG storage tank of 180,000 m³ at Zeebrugge. It will be used for providing transshipment services to Yamal LNG, with project’s icebreaker tankers delivering the Yamal volumes and conventional vessels making final transit.

The high ice class ARC7 LNG vessels are capable of breaking through thick 2.1m ice to deliver the volumes via the Northern Sea Route during Arctic summer (July to December). Otherwise, LNG will be delivered to the Far East markets via Zeebrugge and subsequently, the Suez Canal:

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