Kpler OIL (Crude OIL Exports from U.S. to Asia increase this week)

 

Originally Released on 7 December 2017

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Remain Restricted

Kirkuk Terminal continues to experience restricted loading volumes following fighting in Northern Iraq between the Kurdish Peshmerga and Baghdad in mid-October. The terminal, which is located in Turkey, receives oil by pipeline from the Kirkuk oil fields under dispute.The 10-day moving average has largely remained at or below the 300 kbd level for the past six-weeks. This remains well under the 500-plus kbd average loading levels before the fighting began. Large gaps between loading days continues to persist. The period between 11/28 and 12/4 was the largest such gap since early November.

Venezuelan Exports Lower in November

Venezuela continues to struggle economically, as financial debt obligations have pulled capital and resources away from the nation’s extensive crude oil production, refining and exportation network. Much of 2017 has realized falling oil exports leaving Venezuela. The month of November realized 1,364 kbd in total seaborne exports down 29% since February.

Malacca Strait Oil-on-Water Trends Higher

Malacca oil-on-water ends the week more than double the level realized on 10/28. Floating storage, which is also counted in the oil-on-water total, has increased nearly 200% in the same period. Within this analysis, crude counted as floating storage is assumed to be on vessels that have moved at less than 1 knot for at least the past 12 days.

Chinese Seaborne Imports Higher in November

China realized a 973 kbd increase in seaborne imports month-over-month ending November. Much of the increase was driven by a near 1,000 kbd rise in imports from Africa and the Middle East. Before November, imports from these two geographical areas had held within a 391 kbd band since the mid-summer.

U.S. Exports to Asia Rise This Week

Week-ending 12/1 realized the largest U.S. export volume (655 kbd) shipped to Asia since late-October. Exports to China and Singapore were particularly strong finishing the week at 286 kbd and 298 kbd respectively.

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Kpler LNG (Cove Point LNG Starting Operations soon)

Originally Released on 7 December 2017

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Trafigura’s Adam LNG reloaded at Gate on 25-October and initially headed towards MAAGP. The vessel delivered to Dahej on 3-December.

Engie’s Wilforce was initially expected by Kpler Analysts to reload at Gate. According to the latest operator and port data, the vessel is now confirmed to reload at Montoir, ETA 15-December. There are no additional December reloads expected in France.

Hispania Spirit reloaded at Gate on 28-November and is now headed towards the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

The Dominion Energy’s new Cove Point is expected to load their first cargo in the near future, as the feed gas supply was introduced on 5-December. Shell will lift the initial cargoes from the liquefaction plant. We now observe several Shell’s vessels ballasting towards S.Atlantic with no clear destination: Maran Gas DelphiMaran Gas PosidoniaMethane Kari Elin and Gaslog Gibraltar.

Puteri Intan Satu delivered a commissioning cargo from Bintulu to the new JAPEX’ terminal Soma on 6-December. It is expected to start commercial operations in March 2018.

Due to unplanned outage at GasPort LNG started on 6-December, diversions and delayed deliveries were expected. Shell’s Gaslog Greece is currently floating offshore of Karachi with her Sabine Pass cargo. According to her route and direction, Shell’s Gaslog Salem closely approached Port Qasim on 7-December, but now she is headed the opposite direction. Gasport LNG is expected to restart operations on 8-December.

Engie’ Gaselys loaded at Sabine Pass on 28-November and will discharge at Andres on 15-December.

Shell’s Lena River lifted a cargo at Sabine Pass on 1-December and is now signalling for Hazira, ETA 1-January.

Shell’s Gaslog Geneva loaded a cargo at Idku and is making her laden voyage towards Dahej, ETA 15-December.

RasGas’ Al Areesh was initially expected at Rovigo but changed her direction on 4-December. After floating for two days in the Mediterranean, the vessel headed towards the terminal with an updated ETA 8-December.

Pskov is currently ballasting at Gibraltar and will potentially reload in Europe.

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Kpler LPG (Increasing Exports from Freeport)

 

Originally Released on 7 December 2017
Vessels
Americas

This week we are witnessing 1 vessel heading to FE via the Cape of Good Hope:

Clipper Saturn, ex-Enterprise, is heading to Ocoa Bay Anchorage, ETA 7-Dec. She is expected to discharge her cargo via STS with Bw Gemini.

Bahia Blanca’s exporting activity is increasing:

  • Petredec’s Ronald N is heading to discharge her cargo at Chorillo, ETA 12-Dec.
  • Petredec’s Cambridge discharged her Bahia-Blanca cargo via STS at Ecuador and is heading for a second load, ETA 11-Dec.

 

Europe
Statoil’s Captain Nicholas Ml loaded part of her cargo at Hammerfest and is signalling for Kaarstoe to complete her load, ETA 8-Dec.
Geogas’ Seasurfer, ex-Enterprise, is heading to discharge her cargo at Dortyol, ETA 20-Dec.
Winter in Europe has already arrived, with low forecasted temperatures, which are tightening the market with consecutive shipments, especially to Morocco where there are not many alternatives for heating but the LPG. The following vessels are heading to discharge their cargo at Morocco on mid-December:

  • Astomos’ Ns Frontier, ex-Nederland, is signalling for Mohammedia, ETA 14-Dec.
  • Trafigura’s Kortrijk, ex-Targa, is heading to discharge her cargo at Jorf Lasfar, ETA 14-Dec.

 

Asia

Geogas’ Jia Yuan, ex-Marcus Hook, is heading at Botany, ETA 10-Dec.

Astomos’ Nadeshiko Gas updated her AIS signal and is now heading to load at NWS, ETA 11-Dec.

Pertamina’s Bw Brage is signalling to load at Bontang, ETA 8-Dec.

Africa

Lagos was until recently the major terminal for gas of Nigeria. Puma Energy’s Calabar LPG Storage Terminal started its operations late Summer 2017 by receiving its first cargoes by Mayfair and Epic Shikoku. The terminal has a capacity of over 3000 tonnes and is part of Nigeria’s plans to grow its LPG market by 12,000 tonnes in 2017.

Above: Nigerian LPG Import Installations

 

Sonangol’s Bw Empress, a Floating Storage at Luanda Anchorage, reloaded her cargo at Soyo.

Interesting STS

IOC’s Copernicus, performed a STS with Kikyo at Gale Anchorage. Both vessels are heading to discharge their cargoes at East Coast India.

Shell’s vessels Pacific Hong Kong and Lubara performed a STS at Male Anchorage. The latter, which is acting as a breaking bulk at the anchorage, was reloaded and is continuing its operations.

 

November US LPG Exports hit 1 Mbpd 

Total LPG exports out of United States reached 1 million barrels per day in November, a MoM increase of 93 kbd. The 1 Mbpd floor is not new for US as the total exports averaged 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in three more months (Feb, Apr and Sep) this year, according to Kpler data.

 

Freeport boosting the total US exports

The total US LPG exports are being significantly boosted by the cargoes out of Freeport LPG export terminal. Starting from November 2016 (month of the first cargo out of Phillips 66’s terminal), the US exports increased by an average 108 kbd per month of LPG originated from Freeport terminal. In addition, Enterprise is having a key role in total US exports, with a strong monthly average exports of 385 kbd in 2017. During November, Enterprise shipped 409 kbd of LPG, reaching its April export levels.

 

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Kpler LNG (China LNG Imports)

 

Originally Released on 30 November 2017

RELOADS OF THE WEEK

Itochu’s Cool Explorer reloaded a cargo at Gwangyang on 27-November and is delivering it to China, ETA 5-December.

Shell’s Hispania Spirit loaded at Atlantic LNG on 13-November and delivered to Grain on 25-November. The vessel arrived to reload at Gate on 28-November.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris reloaded at Fos Cavaou on 26-November and is now making her laden voyage towards Incheon, ETA 22-December.

Wilforce will reload at Gate after she finishes her port call at Zeebrugge, ETA 3-December.

Shell’s Methane Nile Eagle reloaded at Fos Cavaou on 8-November and was floating offshore of Kalamata, Greece until 25-November. The vessel delivered her reloaded cargo back to Fos Cavaou on 29-November and is now headed towards Bonny.

 

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS

RasGas’ Al Huwaila loaded at 24-November at Ras Laffan and is expected by Kpler Analysts to discharge at Swinoujscie on 17-December.

Shell’s Maran Gas Efessos is delivering a tender cargo to Altamira, ETA 13-December.

Golar Kelvin delivered a commissioning cargo from Bonny to the new FSRU unit at GasPort LNG on 24-November.

Shell’s Gaslog Geneva loaded at Idku on 27-November and is about to cross the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

Engie’s Gaselys loaded at Sabine Pass on 28-November and is now making her laden voyage towards Andres, ETA 15-December.

Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Everett lifted a cargo at Atlantic LNG on 8-November and was floating in the Caribbean sea until 25-November. Now the vessel is headed towards Everett, ETA 4-December.

Diversion Alert: LNG Lokoja loaded at Bonny on 7-November and was initially signalling for Port Qasim, ETA 28-November. Now she is signalling for Jebel Ali, ETA 3-December.

Gunvor’s Excalibur is now ballasting towards Atlantic LNG to load a cargo, ETA 13-December.

 

CHINA LNG IMPORTS

China LNG imports have reached a new record in November 2017, with current level exceeding 4.5 Mt:

China Monthly Imports (By Origin Countries)

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Kpler OIL (Iranian Crude Oil Exports)

 

Originally Released on 30 November 2017

Iranian Seaborne Exports Trend Lower

Daily Iranian seaborne exports have trended lower over the past week. According to the 5-day moving average, over the past seven days, daily seaborne exports have fallen 1,192 kbd – a 43% decline. The deterioration in export volumes was largely the result of a decline in loadings at Kharg Island.

Chinese Oil-on-Water Lower this Week

The first two weeks of November realized an increase of 22.66 million barrels in total Chinese oil-on-water. This trend has since reversed. Between 11/21 and 11/30, total Chinese oil-on-water declined 42% to a total of 28.86 million barrels.

Higher Venezuelan Exports to the United States

Following weakness in Venezuelan daily export loadings bound for the United States in early-November, the past 10-days have realized higher export volumes. Between 11/19 and 11/30, daily crude oil shipments leaving Venezuelan shores for the U.S. increased 243 kbd, according to the 5-day moving average.This week Venezuelan President Maduro indicated the possibility of eliminating oil sales to the United States in retaliation against sanctions implemented by Washington earlier this year. His comments came during the formal appointment of General Manuel Quevedo to lead Venezuela’s National Oil Company, PDVSA.

Indian Imports of Iraqi Crude Increase

Daily Indian imports of crude from Iraq have recently realized strong growth. Just over the past seven days alone, India imported a total of 11.41 million barrels of Iraqi crude. This contrasts with the first 14 days of November, which realized Iraqi import loadings into India at less than 7 million barrels.

Canadian Seaborne Export Declines

Daily Canadian seaborne export loadings have declined over the past week following a period of relative strength. Over the past 10-days, the 5-day moving average declined 490 kbd.On 11/21 a load of 590 kbd left Canadian shores towards the United Kingdom – a first since August. This also represented the first non-U.S. export destination since late October when 770 kbd  in crude oil left Canada for Italy.

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Kpler EU Gas (Hispania Spirit reload from Gate)

Originally Released on 30 November 2017

EUROPEAN MARKET

NORTH-WEST EUROPE 
South Hook
The terminal is still expecting two vessels to arrive in December:Qatargas’ Al Ghashamiya, ETA 5-December is confirmed by the Port Authorities. The vessel loaded at Ras Laffan on 17-November and is now crossing the Mediterranean Sea.
Qatargas’ Bu Samra, ETA 13-December. She is now about to enter the Red Sea.

Grain
Shell’s Hispania Spirit loaded at Atlantic LNG on 13-November and delivered to Grain on 25-November.

Gate 
Hispania Spirit arrived to reload on 28-November.

Engie’s Wilforce will reload at the terminal after she finishes her port call at Zeebrugge, ETA 3-December.

Fos Cavaou
Engie’s Bw Gdf Suez Paris reloaded on 26-November and is now making her laden voyage towards Incheon, ETA 22-December.

Shell’s Methane Nile Eagle reloaded at the terminal on 8-November and was floating offshore of Kalamata, Greece until 25-November. The vessel delivered her reloaded cargo back to Fos Cavaou on 29-November and is now headed towards Bonny.

Total’s Arctic Lady lifted a cargo at Snohvit and is now expected by Kpler analysts to deliver to Fos Cavaou on 15-December.

Montoir
Trafigura’s Golar Tundra reloaded at the terminal on 26-October and delivered her maiden cargo to Ningbo on 27-November.

Currently, there are two vessels expected to arrive from Bonny: LNG Ogun, ETA 6-December and LNG Borno, ETA 12-December.

Swinoujscie
RasGas’ Al Huwaila loaded at 24-November at Ras Laffan and is expected by Kpler Analysts to discharge at Swinoujscie on 17-December.

SOUTH-EAST EUROPE 

Rovigo
Currently, two vessels are expected to arrive in the next few days:RasGas’ Al Areesh, ETA 5-December
RasGas’ Al Marrouna, ETA 9-December

 

TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR

Qatargas’ Al Hamla loaded at Ras Laffan on 21-November and is about to cross the Suez Canal with no clear destination.

RasGas’ Murwab lifted a cargo at Ras Laffan on 26-November and is now headed towards the Red Sea.

 

RAS LAFFAN
Liftings at Ras Laffan increased in Week 47. Top 5 destinations for W47 appeared: India 0.28 Mt, South Korea 0.16 Mt, Taiwan 0.13 Mt, Italy 0.13 Mt, Japan 0.12 Mt. Currently, 2 vessels are loading at the plant.

 

STOCK & SEND-OUT

At South Hook, we observed a decreased average send-out level of 122 GWh/d this week.


European Stocks and Send-Outs are computed Thursday-Thursday (@ 6:00 AM).
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Kpler LPG (Ethane Flows Focus)

Originally Released on 30 November 2017

 

Vessels
Americas
This week we are not witnessing any vessels that is heading to FE via the Cape of Good Hope
Europe
With 3 VLGCs heading and 1 VLGC currently fixed, ex-US, November exports to Europe are on the rise again reaching 222 Kt , similar to June figures.
Clipper Vanguard was fixed by Statoil to deliver a cargo out of Freeport to Europe. She is expected at USGC on 8-Dec
Geogas’ Karoline N, ex-Marcus Hook, is singalling for Lavera, ETA 6-Dec.
Repsol’s Crystal Marine, ex-Freeport, is signalling for Flushing, ETA 12-Dec.
Vitol’s Providence, ex-Enterprise, is signalling for Flushing, ETA 11-Dec.
Asia

SK Gas’ G. Commander, ex-Al Ruwais, is heading to discharge her cargo at Kalbut, ETA 4-Dec.

Petredec’s Yamabuki, ex-Nederland, is heading to discharge at Teluk Semangka, ETA 9-Dec.

Astomos’ Gas Diana, ex-Bayu Undan, is expected to discharge her cargo at Chita, ETA 3-Dec.

Africa

Chevron’s Hellas Glory, is expected to load at Escravos, ETA 15-Dec

 

Growth of Ethane Trade

Similar with 2016, the ethane trade continued its substantial growth during 2017.

Above: World Map of Ethane Seaborne Trade

 

On the export side, the same installations are able to export ethane:

  • Enterprise’s Morgans Point terminal, operating since Sept-16.
  • Sunoco’s Marcus Hook terminal, ethane operation since March-17.
  • Statoil’s Kaarstoe terminal, operating since 2000.
On the demand side, existing and new crackers in operation received ethane shipments:
  • INEOS’s Grangemouth and Sabic’s North Tees both located in Scotland.
  • INEOS’ Rafnes in Norway.
  • Stenungsund based Borealis terminal.
  • Reliance’s Dahej terminal in India (long-term contract between Reliance and Enterprise).
  • Braskem’s Rio de Janeiro cracker (10-year ethane trade contract between Morgans Point and cracker).
New Trade RouteBraskem’s importation of Ethane into Aratu from the USG, is now on track to start taking deliveries. The 380 $ million project involved converting their Camacari cracker to utilise Ethane as 15% of its feedstock instead of 100% Naphtha.
Shipping will be provided by Navigator Gas Transport, who have the Navigator Orion (22,000 cbm) currently discharging the first cargo in Aratu. In addition, Navigator Eclipse (37,000 cbm) loaded the second parcel in Houston and is currently heading to Aratu.

Trade Flows

In 2017, the trade flows of ethane expanded by 2.5 times the size of the 2016 total seaborne exports (2912 Kt YTD for 2017, compared to 1152 total exports for 2016).

*numbers of Jan, Feb & March for Kaarstoe have been estimated

Since the beginning of its operations in September 2016, Morgans Point have managed to become the leading ethane seaborne exporting installation. Kpler data reveal that in November, Morgans point exports represents a 75% of the total ethane seaborne exports.

The NWE crackers expanded their imports of ethane in 2017, receiving a 60% of total seaborne ethane cargoes, while Dahej progressively rose as the top ethane seaborne importing installation (receiving on average 2 cargoes of 48 Kt per month).

Growth of Ethane Fleet

The Ethane trade has grown considerably over the past year, with 22 vessels lifting ethane cargoes compared to 9 vessels in 2016.
INEOS owns the biggest fleet of dedicated ethane vessels (8 ships in the range of 27,500-32,000 cbm), while Indian Petrochemical Reliance is utilizing economies of scale by transferring bigger ethane volumes with it fleet of 6 VLECs (more than 85 cbm). Navigator Gas just entered the ethane waterborne market with the Navigator Eclipse and Navigator Orion starting trade between US-Brazil.

Above: Vessels that lifted ethan cargoes since Jan-16

Future of Ethane

Similar to 2016, the ethane seaborne market is expected to grow considerably. New contracts are already reported that will open new trade routes to Asia:
  • INEOS entered in a long-term supply agreement with SP Chemicals in China to deliver Ethane from the US to Taixing. In order to do so, INEOS have contracted with Evergas to build the largest gas carrier, a 95,000 cbm Ethane Capacity (built in China with delivery in 2019). On its side, SP Chemicals will commission a gas cracker plant with a 2019 start-up to produce 650,000mts Ethylene per year.
  • American Ethane Co signed a $26 billion agreement with the Nanshan Group in China to supply 2.6 million tons of Ethane from a new export terminal in the USG. The US Ethane will feed their planned 2 million ton per year Ethylene cracker.Separator LineSeparator Line