March OPEC & Russia exports
Kpler released preliminary OPEC March exports on March 29th announcing a 1.18 mmbpd decrease in combined OPEC exports. However, a non-negligible part seems to be a consequence of temporary events (see details below), which could result in the same barrels coming back to the markets in a near future . Moreover, OPEC supply decrease was partially offset by Russian exports increase, which attained 4702 kbd in March (+264 kbd vs Feb), the highest exports recorded in our data since January 2016.

OPEC & Russia preliminary exports – Oct-16, Jan-17, Feb-17 and Mar-17
Angelina  Rascouet  –  Bloomberg:.
“Iran, which was permitted to increase output in last year’s supply deal, led the declines with a drop in exports of 416,000 barrels a day to 2.185 million, according to cargo data compiled by Paris-based Kpler. Nigeria and Libya — exempt from the agreement — reduced shipments by a combined 209,000 barrels a day. The United Arab Emirates showed the first significant export drop since the accord came into force in January, with a reduction of 220,000 barrels a day.”
  • Iran:  –416 kbd drop.
    • some 135 kbd reduction came directly from crude shipments decrease
    • some 120 kbd came from an increased refinery intake of local crude at Bandar Abbas, which resulted  in less crude going to the international market
    • some 155 kbd reduction concerned condensate (Assaluyeh & South Pars terminals)
  • Nigeria & Libya: -210 kbd combined drop
    • Nigeria decreased as a consequence of Bonga FPSO shut-down, with some other minor shifts for the rest of production fields
    • Libyan exports dropped mainly due to supply disruption in Mellitah
  • UAE: First significant drop on exports was observed in March, -220 kbd compared to Feb