Current Kpler data revealed a large decline in U.S. exports for EIA week-ending 6/23/2017 at 266 kbd. This represents a 418 kbd decrease from the previous week. As a result, U.S. exports continue a trend lower that began in mid-May. Notice the four-week average has fallen to 564 kbd. The Kpler forward looking predictive model (which is subject to change) holds that exports will likely rise in a range between 100 and 200 kbd in EIA week-ending 6/30/2017.
The decline in U.S. exports has been partially offset by increasing crude shipments from Angola and Libya since EIA week-ending 6/5/2017. Last week, the two nations exported a total of 2,389 kbd, still well above the low seen earlier in the month.
Current Kpler predictive modeling data reveals that both Libyan and Angolan exports are likely to increase by more than 500 kbd for the current week-starting 6/26/2017.
Increasing Chinese Imports
Last week, imports of crude oil into China realized steep declines at 6,611 kbd. A sub-six thousand kbd level has only occurred in four weeks for all of 2017 (week-starting 1/23, 2/20, 4/3, and 6/19). Kpler predictive modeling data indicates a sizable recovery from these lows for the current week (it is likely China will import over 10,000 kbd).