Harvey Update

Kpler keeps evaluating the impact of Harvey hurricane in the crude market as several ports and refineries remain closed and tanker arrivals have not stopped.

4 Aframax entered Corpus Christi port this morning whereas Houston port remains closed. Both ports imported in average 302 kbd in August, a 200 kbd reduction compared to an average 550 kbd imported over the last 5 months. Last crude shipments to Houston and Corpus Christi were on August 23rd and August 22nd, respectively.

Our data reveals that seaborne imports were at 3,537 kbd for week ending September 1st, down from last week 4,768 kbd with PADD 3 seaborne imports at 1,250 kbd.

As a consequence of reduced imports in the U.S. Gulf Coast, crude oil tankers are accumulating on the sea and arrivals from Middle East and Latin America keep coming. There are currently 25 million barrels of crude aboard 36 tankers in Galveston and close to U.S. shores, excluding those loaded for exports.

Additionally, 9.4 million barrels currently in transit to the Gulf Coast are likely to be added to these volumes in the next few days. The volumes are currently in the Caribbean Sea and close to Mexican ports.

Hence, total crude floating in the Gulf of Mexico with a final destination in PADD 3 refineries and terminals could reach nearly 30 million barrels if New Orleans port and LOOP are not able to absorb the accumulated crude. Indeed, we have not seen significant movements of tankers changing of destination to New Orleans or LOOP. New Orleans port has imported 250 kbd in average over the last months and LOOP around 450 kbd, but it has been seen importing over 700 kbd in the past, according to our data.