World Oil-On-Water Increases
Over the past seven days, world oil-on-water has steadily increased to 983 million barrels – an 8% increase over the period. In addition, four days in the past week all realized day-over-day oil-on-water increases of at least 1%.
Following a week of relatively lower oil-on-water volume, PADD 3 is once again inundated with crude. Since October 19th, total oil-on-water has increased 7.2 million barrels. Floating storage as a percentage of oil-on-water has also moved back to a range near 20%.
Earlier this week, the Iraqi central government announced that they would be increasing the volume of crude being loaded for export at the Al Basrah Terminal, located in the Persian Gulf, as a result of fighting in the northern Kirkuk region of Iraq. Such increases have not yet readily materialized. Since 10/17, the 7-day moving average has held steady within a range of 3,000 and 4,000 kbd – this is little changed from loadings earlier in October. An unusually large load of 8,152 kbd on 10/26 has broken the horizontal trend slightly.
Fighting between the Iraqi government and the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) continues to hamper Kirkuk Terminal loadings. Over the past seven days, a total of 1,480 kbd has been loaded (average of 211 kbd for the week). This is well below the average weekly volume of 587 kbd seen through the first two weeks of October.
U.S. import levels signal a return to normality following a damaging hurricane season. For the first time since the week of 8/18, imports finished above 5,000 kbd. Notice the substantial import dip in early September resulting from Hurricane Harvey.