World Oil-on-Water Flattens Out

Over the past 3-weeks, world oil-on-water has fluctuated within a narrow bound. Between 12/4 and 12/20, oil-on-water remained between 850 and 875 million barrels, according to the 10-day moving average. This follows a November that realized world daily oil-on-water that trended lower by more than 100 million barrels.

Dramatically Malacca Strait Oil-on-Water Trends Lower 

Malacca Strait oil-on-water was in a consistent uptrend through November and early December. Between 11/1 and 12/15, the 10-day moving average increased 14 million barrels – a 56% expansion. Over the past 2-weeks, this trend has since broken to the downside.

Hound Point Seaborne Exports Fall Dramatically 

The North Sea Forties pipeline (also known as FPS) has officially been out of operation for more than a week following the discovery of a widening hairline fracture along a portion of the pipe near Aberdeenshire.  FPS, which has a capacity of 450,000 bpd, connects 80+ offshore production fields to the United Kingdom.Hounds Point, the main export terminal for Forties grade crude oil, has realized large week-over-week drops in crude loaded for export. Weeks-starting 12/11 and 12/18 have loaded an average of 123 kbd, well below the 300+ kbd levels from late November and early December. Ineos has announced the expectation that the Forties Pipeline should be back in limited operation by early 2018.

Kirkuk Terminal Loadings Recover Slightly

Kirkuk Terminal daily loadings have recovered slightly over the past two-weeks. Kirkuk Terminal serves as the main seaborne loading point for Kirkuk grade crude oil produced in Northern Iraq. Disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government in mid-October significantly disrupted production and export flows. Since 12/2, the 10-day moving average has increased 120 kbd – an 89% jump.

Saldanha Bay December Net Flows

The Saldanha Bay storage terminal, located on the west coast of South Africa, has realized a net positive inflow of crude oil into the facility since the beginning of December. Of the six total vessels that have docked with Saldanha, four have discharged crude into the facility. AIS signaling indicates another discharge of 1.07 million barrels into Saldanha on 12/28.