Send-in levels dropped to 659bcf/d on 19-Jan, as the liquefaction plant faced unplanned maintenance. Such levels indicate that possibly only 1 train was active during the weekend.
Send-in levels are now gradually increasing, but ramp-up may take time. This is the second time within one month that send-in levels drop. In response to reduced production of LNG, storage levels are rapidly reaching levels unseen since last year.
US LNG in the APAC region
The cold winter persists in China, resulting in constant high demand for LNG in the first quarter of 2018. Up to 0,28 mt of US LNG has been delivered on spot basis to PetroChina and CNOOC in China YTD, with several cargos underway across the Pacific Ocean.
The main receiver of US LNG is South Korea. KOGAS has a primary contract for up to 3,5 mtpa from Train 3 at Sabine Pass. In addition to the SPA in place, Kogas also received 3 cargos on DES basis by Cheniere since the 1st of January.
U.S. LNG Imports
A mixed reload cargo arrives at Everett
Engie’s Gaselys reloaded a cargo at Grain 7-Jan. The entire market watched, as crew onboard indicated US as her next destination per AIS.
The UK terminal is mainly used for storage of LNG and barely ever sends gas into the national grid. In Q4 2017, the terminal had received several shipments, from Atlantic LNG, Bethioua and lastly, from Russia’s new liquefaction plant, Yamal.
In January 2018, two vessels came to reload cargos for deliveries in premium markets: Gaselys and Methane Kari Elin, with two very different destinations, as the latter continued towards Pyeong Taek, ETA 12-Feb.
Reloads from Europe to South Korea are common, however, the US delivery of Russian gas would be the first of it’s kind, and comes during a period of heightened tension between the two countries following US imposed sanctions on Novatek in 2014.
Faster deliveries to Everett
At an average speed of 16 knots, an LNG cargo can arrive at Everett from Atlantic LNG within 5,25 days. However, the average duration for deliveries in 2017 have been at 15,74 days. The Everett deliveries are often traveling at low speed, floating in certain areas, prior to arrival.
Recent favorable regional gas prices have resulted in a decreased average duration for deliveries. LNG carriers have been increasing their speed towards the terminal.
There has only been 1 exception, with Gaselys currently still floating offshore, awaiting to enter Massachusetts Bay. Kpler Analysts still expect the cargo to be delivered at Everett.
Repsol has received up to 0,19 mt LNG this month, divided onto 3 deliveries:
Shell’s Gaslog Skagen 7-Jan, Shell’s Meridian Spirit 15-Jan and lastly, Gas Natural’s Catalunya Spirit 21-Jan.
There are currently no other potential cargos headed towards the US, but Engie’s BW Boston is loading a cargo at Atlantic LNG. This could be a possible delivery at Everett in early February.