Kpler GAS (Market Update)

Tokyo Gas’ Golar Glacier loaded at Cove Point 4-May. She is expected to deliver her cargo at Kawasaki, ETA 6-Jun.

Engie’s Provalys loaded at Cove Point 30-May. The vessel is now headed towards the Panama Canal.

Cove Point Line-Up
KEPCO’s LNG Jurojin has arrived at Cove Point and is currently loading a cargo.

Tokyo Gas’ Patris is idle along the coast. Her ETA has been moved ahead a few days to 14-Jun.

Gunvor’s BW Pavilion Leeara has completed a partial discharge at Bahia Blanca 1-Jun. The vessel is now headed to Cove Point, ETA 18-Jun.

KEPCO’s LNG Sakura is still headed towards the Panama Canal and is expected by Kpler analysts to load at Cove Point during the second half of June.

Kpler OIL (Market Update)

Saudi seaborne exports are pointing to yet another month at or near the 7,000 kbd loading level, keeping to the export limit set out by the Oil Ministry in January of this year. Through the first three weeks of May, loadings have averaged near 7,200 kbd and preliminary May seaborne export loadings for Saudi are currently holding at 7,089 kbd. Of the monthly total, 2,235 kbd has already been delivered, with another 4,103 kbd in transit, and an additional 475 kbd being loaded at port. The biggest downside risk for Saudi export totals include scheduled loadings, currently equal to 276 kbd. Scheduled loadings are sometimes partially or fully rolled over if associated vessel(s) are unable to load and depart from a port before the end of the current month. The figures reported above are subject to small revisions through the end of the month as more data becomes available.

Through much of 2018, the focus has centered on Saudi compliance with their own self-mandated 7,000 kbd export level. The focus now shifts to the willingness of Saudi Arabia, alongside other OPEC partners and Russia, to begin boosting production and export levels given the stark loss of Venezuelan barrels over the past year and the coming re-implementation of U.S. economic sanctions on Iran. Indeed, over the past 12-months, Saudi Arabia has managed to hold the weekly export average remarkably close to 7,000 kbd. If a change in policy is decided upon at the OPEC meeting next month, it is likely that an increase in Saudi loadings will gradually move higher to allow global markets to slowly absorb the changes. For now, we remain in a wait-and-see attitude.

 

Kpler GAS (Market Update)

Engie’s Provalys loaded at Sabine Pass 20-Mar. The vessel was then expected to deliver her cargo at Costa Norte LNG terminal. After spending several weeks floating at Cristobal Anchorage, the vessel left the region to discharge a partial cargo at Andres 18-May. The vessel is now returning to Panama and is expected to deliver her remaining cargo at the new terminal.

Engie is expected to deliver up to 0.40 mtpa LNG to AES at Costa Norte for up to 10 years.

Kpler LPG (Interesting Moves)

Despite EIA reporting only 766 kbd of propane exported from the U.S. during the week ending 11-May, Kpler analysts observed 15 VLGCs departing during this time frame resulting in total exports exceeding 1Mbd. All these vessels were cleared by U.S. Customs.

3 gas tankers are carrying U.S.-sourced propane to Europe this week:

  • Phillips 66’s VLGC BW Princess from Freeport to Stenungsund, ETA 28-May
  • Shell’s VLGC NS Frontier from Nederland to Terneuzen, ETA 29-May
  • Phillips 66’s MGC Marcellus Lady from Freeport to Immingham, ETA 31-May

At the same time, 3 VLGCs are delivering propane cargoes to Suape, Brazil:

The only U.S.-sourced cargo going to Far East via the Cape of Good Hope this week is on board Shell’sHellas Sparta that is carrying 2:2 split cargo to Indonesia, ETA 20-Jun.

After 6 weeks of ballasting next to the Panama Canal, Constitution was fixed by Total to load from Freeport. According to the AIS signal, she is expected to arrive to Freeport on 23-May.

Kpler OIL (Market Update)

2018 has been a year of rapid increase for U.S. oil production and exportation. In April alone, a total 1,599 kbd departed from the United States towards foreign destinations, the second highest monthly amount in at least the past decade. The rise in U.S. exports has brought with it new global trade flows, one of which includes Condensate moving from Corpus Christi to the ADNOC Ruwais Refinery complex. Aramco Trading Company has played a pivotal role, chartering at least two vessels since March. SK Corporationalso chartered a vessel in early February. In total, five vessels have departed towards the UAE this year:

  1. Aframax Minerva Clara – originally loaded approximately 702,000 barrels of Condensate on January 1st at the Corpus Christi Public Oil Dock before discharging her load at Ruwais Refinery on February 10th.
  2. Suezmax Nordic Pollux – originally loaded approximately 995,300 barrels of Condensate on February 6th at the Corpus Christi Public Oil Dock before discharging her load at Ruwais Refinery on March 16th.
  3. Suezmax Astra – originally loaded approximately two 500,000-barrel Condensate lots, the first at Buckeye Texas Hub on March 30th and the second through an STS transfer with the Eagle Texas at the Corpus Christi lightering zone on April 4th before discharging her entire load at Ruwais Refinery on May 9th.
  4. Aframax Laurel – originally loaded approximately 650,000 barrels of Condensate at the Corpus Christi Public Oil Dock on April 13th. AIS signaling has her arriving at the UAE on May 27th.
  5. Suezmax South Sea – originally loaded approximately two 500,000-barrel Condensate lots, the first through an STS transfer with the Eagle Kinabalu on May 10th and the second at Buckeye Texas Hub on May 14th. AIS signaling has her arriving at the UAE on June 19th.

Kpler OIL (Interesting Moves)

Iranian seaborne exports pushed new highs in April, finishing at a sizable 2,760 kbd, higher 209 kbd m/m and 535 kbd y/y. Shipments towards India realized the largest m/m increase at 121 kbd to end April at 604 kbd, with additional export volumes to China (740 kbd), South Korea (257 kbd), Italy (175 kbd) and France(103 kbd). Following a gap in loadings for the month of March, flows towards Japan also resumed in April, ending at 218 kbd, marking a return to February levels.

South Pars Condensate loadings finished the month at 261 kbd, lower 80 kbd m/m. Late last week, we indicated the possibility that condensate exports could finish higher m/m contingent on the VLCCs Yuan Chun Hu and Dover. In the end, the Yuan Chun Hu ended up co-loading 1.58 million barrels of normal Iranian crude alongside 252,000 barrels of South Pars Condensate. The Dover was unable to load at all in April. In total, Condensate shipments to South Korea dominated at 142 kbd, while additional volumes were shipped towards the UAE (77 kbd), Japan (23 kbd) and China (8 kbd). There remains an additional 10 kbd that loaded in April aboard the Helen M that has yet to signal a destination.

Exports departing from Kharg Island continue to stage a comeback, ending the month of April at 2,170 kbd, an increase of nearly 500 kbd since shipments bottomed out in January. Kharg Island has been the key point for driving marginal monthly changes in seaborne loadings for Iran so far through 2018. Small crude volumes also departed from Sirri (95 kbd), Soroosh (82 kbd) and Lavan (24 kbd) among others.

The overall strength in Iranian shipments for April was driven in part by two things. First, Iranian short-term floating storage, which built to just over 4 million barrels through mid-April fell to nil through the end of the month. The decrease was driven by the VLCCs Dan and Deep Sea, both of which discharged their respective loads through ship-to-ship transfer after sitting idle since early-March. Iranian refinery maintenance also ticked higher in April, freeing up additional crude volumes for export.

Kpler OIL (Market Update)

India receives their first ever FSRU in Jaigarh

Engie’s GDF Suez Cape Ann departed from Tianjin 6-Jan-2018, where the vessel was previously stationed, according to a charter agreement with CNOOC since 2013. She arrived offshore Jaigarh 27-Apr, where the vessel was delivered to H-Energy. ENGIE and H-Energy have signed a charter agreement with a minimum duration of 5 years, starting in 2018.

The new installation will have an initial capacity of 4.0 mtpa during phase 1 and is also able to reload LNG onto other vessels. During phase 2, the installation is expected to increase capacity to a total of 8 mtpa.

H-Energy has also signed a joint venture agreement with K-Line for a second FSRU in West Bengal. The project is planned to commence operations in 2020, with K-Line delivering the FSRU for the project.